Churchill Downs Runs Chicago Stakes at Ellis Park

Churchill Downs is still dealing with the aftermath of the recent equine fatalities. In an effort to improve safety the track closed and moved all racing to Ellis Park.

Saturday Full Card Selections

Churchill Downs at Ellis Park- Race 1

Post: 11:45 AM CT; $120k Maiden Special Weight going 1 1/8 miles on dirt; Entries: 6

• #1 FOREVER AFTER ALL (3-1) gets the top selection. She has proven to be able to handle these conditions in previous starts. This one has races good enough to beat this group.
• #4 LITTLE PRANKSTER (9-5) should be competitive in this spot. She has to be respected going out for the combination of Bauer and Gaffalione. This one fits on speed figures.
• #6 INSENSITIVE (15-1) is a price horse and feels like a fringe contender in this spot. She will likely be in the first flight of runners and should be in with a chance late.
• #5 METHODOLOGY (5-2) should improve off the first start and isn’t without hope. This one goes out for the Cox barn and gets Prat in the irons and could take a big step forward which could make this one the one to beat.

Selections: 1 – 4 – 6 – 5

Churchill Downs at Ellis Park- Race 2

Post: 12:14 PM CT; $92k Maiden Special Weight going 5 1/2 furlongs on dirt; Entries: 11

• #9 LET’S GO MARK (3-1) is the top pick. He has races good enough to beat this group.
• #5 WEST SARATOGA (4-1) should be competitive in this spot. He makes sense on speed figures. This one is well bred for this spot.
• #3 MUGATU (5-1) debuts here and is fairly priced on the morning line. This is the kind of horse you will want to watch the tote board on. If he’s taking money, he’s a definite include.
• #7 TIZ MY HERO (12-1) is a price horse and is probably best to put underneath on most tickets. He comes into the race in really good form.

Selections: 9 – 5 – 3 – 7

Churchill Downs at Ellis Park- Race 3

Post: 12:43 PM CT; $50k Claiming going 6 furlongs on dirt; Entries: 8

• #6 SHIP IT (7-2) looks best here. She has races good enough to beat this group. This one has the top overall power rating in the group.
• #5 SOCIAL MANDATE (4-1) could be in with a shot in this race. She has solid early pace figures in a race that looks to lack a ton of front running speed. This one seems to fit well enough here.
• #1 ROJA LIGERA (3-1) shouldn’t have trouble with the 6 furlong distance. This one has proven to be able to handle these conditions in previous starts.
• #2 HALO OF FIRE (8-1) isn’t without hope. At 8-1 the value on this horse seems more than fair.

Selections: 6 – 5 – 1 – 2

Churchill Downs at Ellis Park- Race 4

Post: 1:13 PM CT; $120k Maiden Special Weight going 1 1/16 miles on turf; Entries: 14

• #7 SAHLABIYA (2-1) gets the top selection. She has to be respected going out for the combination of Walsh and Gaffalione. This one has races good enough to beat this group.
• #3 STAY LOST (8-1) makes sense on speed figures at a very fair price.. This one projects to sit mid pack and come with one run.
• #6 CALLIE’S GRIT (5-2) seems to fit well enough here. The figures are good enough for this group and prices in these maiden allowances can often be pretty reflective of future performance.
• #5 MILIEU (8-1) is probably best to put underneath on most tickets. She makes sense on speed figures. This one goes out for the Mott barn and gets Prat in the irons.

Selections: 7 – 3 – 6 – 5

Churchill Downs at Ellis Park- Race 5

Post: 1:45 PM CT; $54k Starter Allowance going 1 mile on dirt; Entries: 6

• #1 SHELL SHOCK (5-2) is the top pick. She has the top overall power rating in the group. This one could be a dangerous threat to get loose on the front end.
• #2 PIGALLE (3-1) should be competitive in this spot. She will likely have a lot to do in the lane, but could get up with a competitive run. This one has races good enough to beat this group.
• #5 FORTUNE BOUND (8-1) makes sense here. She has speed figures that would win here. This one will likely be in the first flight of runners and should be in with a chance late.
• #6 GRAY FROST (4-1) feels like a fringe contender in this spot. She makes sense on speed figures. This one has solid early pace figures in a race that looks to lack a ton of front running speed.

Selections: 1 – 2 – 5 – 6

Churchill Downs at Ellis Park- Race 6

Post: 2:18 PM CT; $52k Claiming going 1 mile on dirt; Entries: 8

• #8 LONG CROW (3-1) looks best here. He looks to be the class of the field. This one could be tough.
• #6 JOB SECURITY (4-1) could get the right setup in this race.
• #7 MADISON LUVS DUKE (7-2) has been really solid in recent starts and should be ready to run a big one here. This one shouldn’t have trouble with the 1 mile distance.
• #3 SPRINKLEHEAD (8-1) is probably best to put underneath on most tickets. He makes sense on speed figures. This one will likely be in the first flight of runners and should be in with a chance late.

Selections: 8 – 6 – 7 – 3

Churchill Downs at Ellis Park- Race 7

Post: 2:50 PM CT; $127k Allowance Optional Claiming going 6 1/2 furlongs on dirt; Entries: 9

• #4 GRAND LOVE (5-2) gets the top selection. She will likely be out on or near the lead and will look to hold off the charge to the wire. This one has races good enough to beat this group.
• #3 MO TOWN MAYHEM (7-2) should be competitive in this spot. She will likely have a lot to do in the lane, but could get up with a competitive run.
• #6 ERVADEAN (6-1) isn’t without hope. She has been really solid in recent starts and should be ready to run a big one here. This one should be sitting in the second tier of runners and looking to make one well timed run at the leaders.
• #7 BENNYKAYANDSUZYTOO (10-1) is a price horse and makes some sense in the bottom of exotics. She has been really solid in recent starts and should be ready to run a big one here.

Selections: 4 – 3 – 6 – 7

Churchill Downs at Ellis Park- Race 8

Post: 3:22 PM CT; $127k Allowance going 1 mile on turf; Entries: 12

• #7 POLICY OPTION (8-1) is the top pick. He has been really solid in recent starts and should be ready to run a big one here. This one seems to fit well enough here.
• #2 TAKING CANDY (9-2) appears to be a major player in this race. He makes sense on speed figures. This one has been really solid in recent starts and should be ready to run a big one here.
• #12 MAASAI WARRIOR (12-1) is a price horse and appears could factor in this one. He has races good enough to beat this group. This one will be rolling late and has a good closing kick that could get the job done here.
• #10 BLUE DEVIL (5-1) should be competitive in this spot. He has races good that could win this race. This one will likely be in the first flight of runners and should be in with a chance late.

Selections: 7 – 2 – 12- 10

Churchill Downs at Ellis Park- Race 9

Post: 3:55 PM CT; $225k Chicago S. going 7 furlongs on dirt; Entries: 6

• #5 SOCIETY (2-1) looks best here. She has been really solid in recent starts and should be ready to run a big one here. This one seems like a much more representative price than the morning line favorite.
• #2 MATAREYA (4-5) appears to be a major player in this race. There is no denying her recent form and speed figures. However, with a couple of other talented types in this race, less than even money seems a bit short.
• #1 HIDDEN CONNECTION (3-1) seems to fit well enough here. This one should be part of the early pace in this spot and will look to get the first jump on the late runners.
• #6 DRIFAROS (15-1) is a price horse that is probably best served underneath in exotic wagers. This one has been running against some decent recent company.

Selections: 5 – 2 – 1 – 6

Churchill Downs at Ellis Park- Race 10

Post: 4:26 PM CT; $120k Maiden Special Weight going 5 1/2 furlongs on turf; Entries: 12

• #10 LIQUID ADDICTION (3-1) gets the top selection. He could be a dangerous threat to get loose on the front end. This one has to be respected going out for the combination of Walsh and Gaffalione.
• #8 ETERNAL BLISS (4-1) should improve off the first start and should be competitive in this spot. He makes sense on speed figures.
• #12 CUORE SACRO (6-1) should be part of the early pace in this spot. This one has proven to be able to handle these conditions in previous starts.
• #3 KIGALI (7-2) looks like a horse that could play a role in the outcome of the race. He seems to fit well enough here. This one should be sitting in the second tier of runners and looking to make one well timed run at the leaders.

Selections: 10- 8 – 12- 3