NFL Odds

There are alot of factors that go into odds making on a matchup by matchup basis and it changes day to day. The oddsmakers will look at where the game is played, the weather, injuries, current form and any other factor that will help them determine how the appropriate line should be set to open.

For example, if the 5-1 Chiefs are set to take on the 2-4 Rams and it is a home game for the Chiefs, the line will probably be somewhere around at least 6.5 or 7 points in favor of the Chiefs. That example is without any weather, injuries or current form factored in. So the odds change throughout the week leading up to the game as news comes in and circumstances may change.

So if a team is +200 on the moneyline, that means immediately that they are the underdog. The team that is at plus money, or in this case +200, is the underdog. The team that is the favorite has minus odds.

If you bet $10 on the team that is +200 on the moneyline and they win the game, you would profit $20. The higher the plus money, the more likely the odds makers consider it a long shot. For example, +100 is fairly likely but not guaranteed while +400 is a lot less likely but still within reason.

Betting negative odds is the best way to profit long term betting any sport, especially football, as long as it is the right number. Negative odds start as low at -103 and go down from there. If a game is between two teams that are evenly matched, that is called a pick ‘em and they will both be -110 on the moneyline.

This means, from the oddsmakers perspective, there is a 50/50 chance of either team winning. If you bet $10 on the -110 moneyline, and the team wins, you would profit $9.09. You aren’t doubling your money per se, but you are profiting almost the same you invested.

Finding the sweet spot of betting the negative numbers is about determining how low down the negative line you will go before the bet isn’t a smart wager. For example, if the Giants are playing the Broncos and the Giants are -165 on the moneyline and you bet $10 on them to win, you are only getting a $6.06 profit from your bet. The closer you can get to -110, the better for maximizing your profits on bets that are relatively likely to happen.

Everyone has a different method of line reading but here is a basic breakdown. Every game has 3 categories: The moneyline, the spread and the Over/under or the Total. The favorite is determined by the negative side of the spread and the underdog is determined by the plus side of the spread. More on that below.

The moneyline shows the value on either team to win the game outright. The favorite will be -125 or lower and the underdog will be +100 or higher. The Over/under or the Total, refers to the amount of points scored between both teams combined in the game.

The spread simply means the amount of points a team will either win or lose by. For example, if the Vikings are -3.5 point favorites against the Dolphins, then the Vikings have to win by 4 or more points, called covering the spread, for you to win your bet.

On the other side, in this example, the Dolphins would be +3.5, which means if you bet the Dolphins spread, they would have to win outright or not lose by more than 3 and you win your bet. Most spread bets are set at the -110 value on both sides so it is the best value if you want to play a side in a game, as long as you think the team you chose can cover the spread.

The Total or the Over/Under is the total amount of points scored in the game between both teams. If you select over the number, to win your bet, more points than that number has to be scored. And vice versa for the under. For example, the Vikings are playing the Dolphins and the total is set at 44.5.

The over 44.5 is -120 and the under 44.5 is +100. You bet $10 on the under because you think that the offenses are going to struggle. You end up being right and they only score a combined 36 points. You win your bet and profit $10.

The moneyline shows who the oddsmaker thinks is the favorite and gives them less favorable odds. For example, the Vikings are favored against the Raiders and are -175 on the moneyline. To win a moneyline bet, the team you bet on simply has to win the game.

So if you bet $10 on the Vikings to win at -175 odds and they do indeed win, you would profit $5.71. It’s important to remember that the moneyline can adjust throughout the week before a game, but the number you bet stays the same.

So if you bet the Vikings -175 on the Moneyline earlier in the week and as it gets closer to kickoff, the moneyline is -195, you still get the -175 number. The lower the number, the more likely, in the oddsmakers eyes, it is that a team will win. And vice versa on the other side. The higher the plus money odds on the underdog, the less likely it is, in the oddsmakers eyes, for that team to win.