Keeneland Returns Friday with Breeders’ Cup Implications

For many the Keeneland fall meet is a highlight of the racing calendar. Without question it is one of the marquee autumn events and will be responsible for many of the names at the Breeders’ Cup.

The track is host to a number of automatic bid races that will stamp horses tickets to Santa Anita in November.

Handicapping New Meets

The constant ebb and flow of the horse racing season means that horseplayers need to constantly need to recalibrate their handicapping to match the newest track. The challenge with Keeneland is that the short boutique nature of the meet requires handicappers to quickly adjust to the many variables.

Betting News offers a number of tools that can help put you a step ahead of the competition when trying to select winners on opening day.

Know the Track

Each track has its own quirks and favorable running profiles. Betting News provides detailed pace analysis of each horse in every race and includes a track bias tool that can be used to help establish which types of runners may be best suited for the track.

Keep in mind that these favored profiles can change from distance to distance and depending on if the race is on turf or dirt.

Connections

They say its not about what you know, but who you know. When diving into a new track at the start of the meet it can be important to pay attention to the who of horse racing. Look for jockeys and trainers that frequently perform well at the meet.

Another thing to be aware of is the performance of the jockeys and trainers at the last meet they attended. This can signal to players if they are hot and cold which can often impact the horse’s performance.

Keeneland Full Card Analysis – October 4, 2023

Race 1: Keeneland

Maiden Claiming Post Time: 1:00 PM ET; Purse: $68k; Distance: 1 1/16 miles; Surface: Dirt; Entries: 16

• #1 GAME WARDEN (8-1) – Our top selection. Although he may need a strong late run, he has the potential to compete well in this race with his consistent performance.
• #11 J J’S JOKER (6-1) – Another strong contender with consistent pace figures, making him a major player in this moderately paced race.
• #3 ACTIVE DUTY (5-1) – Expected to be competitive given his previous success on similar conditions.
• #16 ATLANTIC DANCER (12-1) – A price horse worth considering, as he should handle the distance comfortably.

Selections: 1 – 11 – 3 – 16

Race 2: Keeneland

Maiden Special Weight Post Time: 1:32 PM ET; Purse: $100k; Distance: 6 f; Surface: Dirt; Entries: 15

• #6 CHARLOTTESAPPROVAL (10-1) – A price horse and our top pick, having shown an ability to handle these conditions in previous starts.
• #13 WESTERN GAILES (6-1) – A debutant with potential and strong pedigree, making her a major player.
• #1 ROYAL SLIPPER (6-1) – Another debutant worth considering, especially with the Ward-Velazquez combination.
• #4 TWIRL AROUND (4-1) – A debutant with the potential to be in contention.

Selections: 6 – 13 – 1 – 4

Race 3: Keeneland

Allowance Post Time: 2:04 PM ET; Purse: $110k; Distance: About 7 f; Surface: Dirt; Entries: 8

• #6 MARIAH’S APPEAL (5-2) – Our top choice, with the combination of Bauer and Gaffalione making her a strong contender.
• #5 BANDITA (6-5) – Likely to improve off her first start and a major player with good past performances.
• #4 TWO ITEM SAVER (8-1) – Could be a fringe contender with solid early pace figures.
• #8 H. T. XENA (12-1) – A price horse that should not be underestimated and appears to be the class of the field.

Selections: 6 – 5 – 4 – 8

Race 4: Keeneland

Allowance Optional Claiming Post Time: 2:36 PM ET; Purse: $110k; Distance: 6 f; Surface: Dirt; Entries: 9

• #5 TWIRLING QUEEN (7-2) – Our top choice, with the Casse barn and Saez as jockey, expected to be part of the early pace.
• #8 ALMOND FUDGE (9-2) – Likely to be competitive with solid credentials and the Gutierrez barn.
• #9 DOROTHY CROWFOOT (8-1) – Worth considering as she has the potential to be in the mix.
• #3 OUR KEEPSAKE (8-1) – A fringe contender that could surprise.

Selections: 5 – 8 – 9 – 3

Race 5: Keeneland

Allowance on Turf Post Time: 3:08 PM ET; Purse: $130k; Distance: 5 1/2 f; Surface: Turf; Entries: 12

• #4 L J’S EMMA (10-1) – Our top pick and a price horse with the potential to excel in this race.
• #5 BLING (6-1) – Expected to be competitive based on speed figures.
• #6 SASSY NATURE (4-1) – The class of the field and a strong contender.
• #9 DETERMINED JESTER (20-1) – A price horse that should not be overlooked, especially considering her previous successes.

Selections: 4 – 5 – 6 – 9

Race 6: Keeneland

Maiden Special Weight Post Time: 3:40 PM ET; Purse: $100k; Distance: 6 f; Surface: Dirt; Entries: 14

• #6 PLAGNE CHAMPAGNE (8-1) – Expected to improve off the first start and our top choice.
• #4 PIN UP BETTY (10-1) – A price horse and a competitive contender with solid early pace figures.
• #9 TAMMY LYNN (2-1) – Likely to improve off the first start and in contention for this race.
• #14 MAKEUP (6-1) – Expected to be part of the early pace.

Selections: 6 – 4 – 9 – 14

Race 7: Keeneland

Stoll Keenon Ogden Phoenix S. Post Time: 4:12 PM ET; Purse: $350k; Distance: 6 f; Surface: Dirt; Entries: 11

Race seven is the Stoll Keenon Ogden Phoenix Stakes. The race is a Grade 2 and a Breeders’ Cup “Win and You’re In” race.

• #8 NAKATOMI (4-1) – Our top choice with recent solid performances and the Ward-Ortiz combination.
• #7 BANGO (5-2) – A competitive contender with top overall power ratings.
• #4 GULFSTREAM WAY (8-1) – Expected to be competitive and make a strong late run.
• #6 NECKER ISLAND (30-1) – A price horse with a chance to surprise in this race.

Selections: 8 – 7 – 4 – 6

Race 8: Keeneland

Jessamine Stakes presented by Keeneland November Post Time: 4:44 PM ET; Purse: $350k; Distance: 1 1/16 miles; Surface: Turf; Entries: 11

Race eight is the Jessamine Stakes on turf. The race is a Grade 2 and a Breeders’ Cup “Win and You’re In” race.

• #4 CROWN IMPERIAL (6-1) – Our top choice expected to handle the distance well.
• #10 BUCHU (4-1) – A major player in this race with the Bauer-Garcia combination.
• #2 TIME TO DAZZLE (5-2) – Likely to improve off the first start and a competitive choice.
• #9 APPELLATE (10-1) – A price horse with potential for a strong showing.

Selections: 4 – 10 – 2 – 9

Race 9: Keeneland

Darley Alcibiades Stakes Post Time: 5:16 PM ET; Purse: $600k; Distance: 1 1/16 miles; Surface: Dirt; Entries: 9

In the final stakes race of the day, we have the Darley Alcibiades Stakes. The race is a Grade 1 and a Breeders’ Cup “Win and You’re In” race.

• #7 BRIGHTWORK (9-5) – Our top choice with tactical speed and strong past performances.
• #5 V V’S DREAM (5-2) – A contender with the potential to be in the mix.
• #8 EMERY (4-1) – Expected to improve and worth considering as an underneath option.
• #1 ALYS BEACH (20-1) – A price horse that could surprise in this race.

Selections: 7 – 5 – 8 – 1

Race 10: Keeneland

Allowance on Turf Post Time: 5:48 PM ET; Purse: $120k; Distance: 1 mile; Surface: Turf; Entries: 16

• #9 CHASING THE CROWN (9-2) – Our top selection and the class of the field.
• #5 BEUYS (7-2) – A major player with consistent pace figures.
• #10 GOLDEN ALCHEMIST (5-2) – A competitive choice with the Brown-Ortiz combination.
• #13 DRAKON (8-1) – Expected to run a big race with previous solid performances.

Selections: 9 – 5 – 10 – 13

Betting News Horse Racing Coverage

Betting News provides AI generated handicapping tools for all of the major tracks around the country each and every day.

In addition, Betting News will continue to provide in depth analysis of select cards throughout the week. This week’s analysis will feature many of the Breeders’ Cup “Win and You’re In” races including:

Friday

• Keeneland featuring the Alcibiades, the Jessamine, and the Stoll Keenan Ogden Phoenix

Saturday

• Belmont at the Big A featuring the Champagne and the Frizette.
• Keeneland featuring the Breeders’ Futurity, the Coolmore Turf Mile, and the Thoroughbred Club of America
• Santa Anita featuring the American Pharoah, the Chandelier, and the Rodeo Drive.

Sunday

• Keeneland featuring the Bourbon Stakes and the the Spinster.

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