Keeneland Saturday 4/22 Stakes Analysis: Elkhorn, Ben Ali

Keeneland will run a pair of stakes races on Saturday. The first is the Elkhorn in which Red Knight is favored. The 2nd is the Ben Ali featuring former Derby chasers.

Keeneland continues to offer their all-turf pick 3 as a wagering option for players. When the wager debuted in October of 2021, the pros and cons of the wager were outlined in Keeneland All Turf Pick 3: Is It A Good Investment.

Keeneland Saturday Full Card Selections

Keeneland- Race 1

Post: 1:00 PM ET; $45k Claiming going 6 1/2 furlongs on dirt; Entries: 8

• #5 SHE'S GONE D'WILD (7-2) gets the top selection. She looks to be the class of the field. This one shouldn't have trouble with the 6 1/2 furlong distance.
• #3 WHY BEHAVE (9-2) should be competitive in this spot. She has races good enough to beat this group. This one has the top overall power rating in the group.
• #6 YOGURT (6-1) could be in with a shot in this race. She could be a dangerous threat to get loose on the front end.
• #2 MY DARK SECRET (20-1) is a price horse and feels like a fringe contender in this spot. She has solid early pace figures in a race that looks to lack a ton of front running speed.

Selections: 5 – 3 – 6 – 2

Keeneland- Race 2

Post: 1:32 PM ET; $57k Starter Allowance going 1 1/16 miles on dirt; Entries: 6

• #1 GHOSTLY GIRL (5-2) is the top pick. She has tactical speed and can sit just off the leaders for a stalk and pounce trip. This one has proven to be able to handle these conditions in previous starts.
• #5 HASHTAG WINNER (8-1) appears to be a major player in this race. She has been really solid in recent starts and should be ready to run a big one here.
• #6 LA TOURISTA (12-1) is a price horse and looks like solid value in this race. She will be rolling late and has a good closing kick that could get the job done here.
• #2 LEGERITY (20-1) probably won’t end up in the winner’s circle, but she has the chance to outrun her odds here. She will likely have a lot to do in the lane, but could get up with a competitive run.

Selections: 1 – 5 – 6 – 2

Keeneland- Race 3

Post: 2:04 PM ET; $47k Maiden Claiming going 7 furlongs on dirt; Entries: 15

• #8 KISLOVODSK (7-2) looks best here. He should be sitting in the second tier of runners and looking to make one well timed run at the leaders.
• #1 OFF THE CUFF (2-1) appears to be a major player in this race. He has solid early pace figures in a race that looks to lack a ton of front running speed. This one makes sense on speed figures.
• #9 BIG POPPER (9-2) should have a chance to at least hit the board here. He has races good enough to beat this group.
• #11 BLUEGRASS LUTE (20-1) is the kind of horse that makes sense underneath on your tickets. At 20-1 this one has speed figures that could put him in the mix.

Selections: 8 – 1 – 9 – 11

Keeneland- Race 4

Post: 2:36 PM ET; $78k Claiming going 7 furlongs on dirt; Entries: 7

• #2 SILK TRADE (9-5) gets the edge over this field. His speed ratings are among the top in this group and he could be tough to beat.
• #4 MARKET ANALYSIS (9-2) has races good enough to beat this group and the top overall power rating in the group. Perhaps the best thing going for this runner is that he is drawn outside of the other three top contenders which could lead to a slight tactical edge.
• #1 GUN IT (7-2) should be competitive in this spot. He should be sitting in the second tier of runners and looking to make one well timed run at the leaders.
• #3 LEGAL DEAL (5-2) wouldn’t be a surprise here. This one makes sense on speed figures and has proven to be a good bet to hit the board in this type of race.

Selections: 2 – 4 – 1 – 3

Keeneland- Race 5

Post: 3:08 PM ET; $120k Allowance going 1 1/8 miles on turf; Entries: 8

• #3 MISE EN SCENE (7-5) is the top pick. She has solid early pace figures in a race that looks to lack a ton of front running speed. This one has the top overall power rating in the group.
• #8 BEECHNUT TROPHY (4-1) should be competitive in this spot. She projects to sit mid pack and come with one run. This one makes sense on speed figures.
• #7 MYRISKYAFFAIR (7-2) isn't without hope. She goes out for the Clement barn and gets Prat in the irons. This one has tactical speed and can sit just off the leaders for a stalk and pounce trip.
• #4 LOVELY PRINCESS (9-2) could be a factor in this race. She makes sense on speed figures and has a midpack closing run style that is well served on Keeneland’s turf.

Selections: 3 – 8 – 7 – 4

Keeneland- Race 6

Post: 3:40 PM ET; $100k Maiden Special Weight going 6 1/2 furlongs on dirt; Entries: 13

• #6 BILLY JACK (4-1) should improve off the first start and looks best here. He shouldn't have trouble with the 6 1/2 furlong distance.
• #11 CIGARETTE BOAT (10-1) is a price horse and appears to be a major player in this race. He looks to be the class of the field. This one has the pedigree to be a major player in this spot.
• #7 CLASS ACTOR (5-2) debuts here and gets plenty of hope baked into the morning line favoritism. He has to be respected going out for the combination of Cox and Geroux.
• #4 MR. KEATING (9-2) will make the first start of the career for Casse. The trainer looks to Ortiz for the mount here which does show promise.

Selections: 6 – 11- 7 – 4

Keeneland- Race 7

Post: 4:12 PM ET; $110k Allowance going 6 furlongs on dirt; Entries: 7

• #7 SOCIALLY SELECTIVE (1-1) gets the top selection. She has really consistent pace figures which should work well in a moderately paced race. This one has been really solid in recent starts and should be ready to run a big one here.
• #6 FROSHADO (8-1) seems to be the right kind of horse for 2nd if you’re looking for value. She runs evenly and looks to get a very fair pace scenario here. This one has proven to be able to handle these conditions in previous starts.
• #2 UNSUNG MELODY (3-1) makes sense on speed figures. This one should be part of the early pace in this spot. The problem is if the #7 is even money than it is hard to take the 2nd choice anywhere.
• #4 DEVIOUS STARES (4-1) should improve off the first start and with enough of a move forward she could be in the mix. She runs evenly and looks to get a very fair pace scenario here.

Selections: 7 – 6 – 2 – 4

Keeneland- Race 8

Post: 4:44 PM ET; $350k Elkhorn S. going 1 1/2 miles on turf; Entries: 10

• #8 HIGHEST HONORS (5-1) is the top pick. He has to be respected going out for the combination of Brown and Ortiz.
• #5 RED KNIGHT (5-2) should be competitive in this spot. He will likely have a lot to do in the lane, but could get up with a competitive run.
• #1 CHANNEL MAKER (9-2) feels like a fringe contender in this spot. He seems to fit well enough here. This one is one of the coolest horses in training. He may not be the horse he used to be but he dances all the big dances.
• #2 VALUE ENGINEERING (7-2) seems to fit well enough here. This one has proven to be able to handle these conditions in previous starts.

Selections: 8 – 5 – 1 – 2

Keeneland- Race 9

Post: 5:16 PM ET; $300k Ben Ali S. going 1 3/16 miles on dirt; Entries: 7

• #4 SKIPPYLONGSTOCKING (7-5) looks best here. He goes out for the Joseph barn and gets Ortiz in the irons. This one looks to be the class of the field.
• #7 TAWNY PORT (8-1) appears to be a major player in this race. He makes sense on speed figures. This one has been really solid in recent starts and should be ready to run a big one here.
• #1 PIONEER OF MEDINA (7-2) should be competitive in this spot. He has been running against some really solid company. This one runs evenly and looks to get a very fair pace scenario here.
• #6 HAPPY AMERICAN (12-1) is a price horse with a shot to make things interesting here. The speed figures fit and he has proven to be able to handle these conditions in previous starts.

Selections: 4 – 7 – 1 – 6

Keeneland- Race 10

Post: 5:48 PM ET; $130k Allowance going 5 1/2 furlongs on turf; Entries: 16

• #3 BEER CAN MAN (5-1) gets the top selection. He makes sense on speed figures. This one looks to be the class of the field.
• #8 MARK OF THE Z (8-1) should be competitive in this spot. He shouldn't have trouble with the 5 1/2 furlong distance. This one has proven to be able to handle these conditions in previous starts.
• #2 SMOKIN' JAY (4-1) feels like a fringe contender in this spot. He could get the right setup in this race.
• #5 FRONT RUN THE FED (15-1) is a price horse that could take advantage of a favorable pace scenario here.

Selections: 3 – 8 – 2 – 5

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