Kentucky Derby 149: Early Look at the 2023 Field

The field for Kentucky Derby 149 is set. With the exception of a defection or two that could happen in the coming week, players can now start to handicap the race in full.

Changes to the Derby Field

Although we are not likely to see a massive amount of defections from the race, there will likely be one or two more horses that will withdraw from the field in the coming days. Fans may remember that the late scratch of Ethereal Road led to Rich Strike drawing into the 2022 edition of the run for the roses.

2023 Changes

Chad Brown has already stated that Blazing Sevens, who earned nearly 50 Derby points will skip the race and train on to the Preakness. The move opens the door for Jace’s Road to draw into the field of 20.

Should a horse come up sick or lame before the race, there may be more scratches that occur. The order of contenders that would draw in based on those scratches is as follows:

1. Skinner
2. Cyclone Mischief
3. Major Dude
4. Mandarin Hero (JPN)
5. King Russell

Kentucky Derby 149 Market Toppers

Forte (190 Derby Pts) Trained by Todd A. Pletcher

Forte is the likely favorite coming off his Eclipse award as the top 2 year old in the country. It is hard to argue with his results since then. He won in impressive fashion in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth and backed it up with a plucky off the pace win in the Grade 1 Florida Derby.

Despite his impressive form there are some reasons for pause. He has shown declining speed figures in each of his two year old starts and seems like the kind of horse that may have peaked as a two year old. The Violence sire line also has yet to produce a Derby winner.

Practical Move (160 Derby Pts) Trained by Tim Yakteen

Practical Move swept the two California preps en route to the Kentucky Derby. He has paired back to back 100 Beyer speed figures after a steady climb throughout his prep races. This horse could be one that is improving at the right time.

The two main concerns for this runner are his trainer who is relatively new to the Derby game with his own horses and the fact that he has had trouble at the start in each of his last two races. In a 20 horse field, a similar start could potentially dagger any hopes before he even gets started.

Angel of Empire (154 Derby Pts) Trained by Brad H. Cox

This runner exists the southeastern preps at Oaklawn and Fair Grounds. The Risen Star did not seem like a great running, but the Arkansas Derby performance did show well and he looked like a horse who could get the extra distance that may be a tough ask for many of these.

The big question marks with this one is who did he beat and will he get faster? Despite improving the figure by at least 4 points in each of the last 4 races, Angel of Empire sits on a career best 94 which is considerably below the fastest in this field.

Tapit Trice (150 Derby Pts) Trained by Todd A. Pletcher

Another runner for Todd Pletcher, this Tapit colt seems to be getting good at the right time. The Blue Grass seemed like a solid enough prep and he showed a new dimension getting into the action early and getting up for the win.

One hurdle that this horse may face is his size. He is an extremely robust horse. Like so many with this build it can take him a while to find his best stride. In a field of 20 the likelihood that he has to check and break stride at some point is likely. If that happens the field could be gone by the time he gets back into stride.

Two Phil's (123 Derby Pts) Trained by Larry Rivelli

This runner couldn’t get the job done at Fair Grounds which wasn’t seen as a particularly strong circuit. However, he went to Turfway Park and dominated in the Jeff Ruby. The performance earned him a 101 Beyer which is among the best in this field.

Two Phil’s will have to answer a couple of questions for his backers. First, can Jareth Loveberry handle the pressure of riding a horse in the Derby. Loveberry spends much more of his time at B and C tier tracks where the colonies can be a bit less refined. The other question will be how the synthetic for transfers to the dirt at Churchill.

Lord Miles (105 Derby Pts) Trained by Saffie Joseph Jr.

Lord Miles was in a New York state of mind during his final prep. After failing twice in Florida, he traveled to Aqueduct and took down the Wood Memorial in close fashion earning a 93 Beyer speed figure.

This one seems a little slow and the Wood has not produced a lot of success in the Kentucky Derby over recent runnings. Trainer Saffie Joseph Jr., who dominates south Florida racing has not been able to replicate that success outside of his home jurisdiction.

Derma Sotogake (JPN) (100 Derby Pts) Trained by Hidetaka Otonashi

Derma is one of the more intriguing players in the 2023 Derby. The horse won the UAE Derby which has typically not produced success in Kentucky, but figure makers rated the race as a 106 Beyer equivalent. If correct that is the highest field. This horse also likes to be forward in a race that doesn’t have any clear front runners.

Christophe Lemaire will get the mount here and he was on a ballyhooed Japanese runner last year in Crown Pride. The horse was absolutely no factor in the run for the roses. The question will be how the horse took to the travel and if his jock has learned some of the nuance of racing in the Derby.

Kingsbarns (100 Derby Pts) Trained by Todd A. Pletcher

Kingsbarn is the most lightly raced of the Pletcher contingent. He stands 3 for 3 all time with an impressive win in the Louisiana Derby to cap his prep season. With the race being an extra 16th of a mile, this runner has shown the ability to handle a little extra distance.

The major concern for this runner is the fact that that he has had a different jockey in each start. By all accounts his most recent jock had the opportunity to stay on the call and chose to ride Angel of Empire instead which doesn’t exactly instill confidence.

The Rest of the Kentucky Derby Field

Raise Cain (64 Derby Pts) Trained by Ben Colbrook

This runner has won only 1 race in 5 since breaking the maiden. His speed figures are really light compared to the rest of the field and he just seems a bit light on talent for this group.

Rocket Can (60 Derby Pts) Trained by William I. Mott

Rocket Can showed a glimmer in the Fountain of Youth following a win in the Holy Bull, but didn’t factor much in the Arkansas Derby. This one feels like he could have a chance to get involved, but like many in this tier will have to take a step forward.

Hit Show (60 Derby Pts) Trained by Brad H. Cox

Hit Show goes out for the Cox barn which is always live, but this one prepped on a New York circuit that has been underwhelming in recent editions of the Kentucky Derby. The promising signal from this horse is that he did post a career best Beyer figure in the last event.

Confidence Game (57 Derby Pts) Trained by J. Keith Desormeaux

Confidence game ran a career best 94 Beyer speed figure in the Grade 2 Rebel. With enough points to get into the gate, the connections gave him a rest. The case for this horse would be that he has every right to mature dramatically since his last race.

The workouts will be key on this one during Derby week to see if he has truly taken that forward step.

Verifying (54 Derby Pts) Trained by Brad H. Cox

Verifying put up a 99 Beyer in the Blue Grass which puts him right in the mix with the 100 runners of which there are only a few. This one feels like the kind that will get wise guy steam in the week leading up and bettors who like this one may have to stomach a shorter than expected price.

Sun Thunder (54 Derby Pts) Trained by Kenneth G. McPeek

A bet for Sun Thunder is a bet on the Blue Grass. Backers of this runner have to be of the opinion that the Keeneland prep was just flat out better than the rest and his 4th place finish against that competition makes him a more likely player than many of the others with more Derby points.

Wild On Ice (50 Derby Pts) Trained by Joel Marr

The Sunland Derby winner has no business in the field based on speed figures, but the same could have been said about a certain 80-1 shot last year. However, that may actually make this horse an interesting factor as he is one of the horses who may project to take a flyer early and heat up the pace.

Wild On Ice was euthanized following a catastrophic training injury. Skinner will draw into his place in the field.

Mage (50 Derby Pts) Trained by Gustavo Delgado

Your opinion of Forte will largely dictate your thoughts on this runner. Lightly raced he closed a major gap on the 2 year old champ in just his 3rd start. There is definite talent there and this runner is a much better price. The big question for this guy is the lack of experience which has plagued so many runners.

Disarm (46 Derby Pts) Trained by Steven M. Asmussen

Disarm is the one chance for America’s winningest trainer to break his dubious record of most starters without a win. However, this horse backs into the Derby collecting garbage points with a pair of runner up finishes. If Asmussen couldn’t win with Epicenter, its hard to think this one is his break through.

Reincarnate (45 Derby Pts) Trained by Tim Yakteen

Tim Yakteen inherits this runner from Bob Baffert. Following the drug positive of the late Medina Spirit Baffert’s horses are not allowed earn points or run in the Derby. This not so covert slide of hand has been tried before and it just hasn’t worked out in the past and the past performances suggest more of the same.

Jace's Road (45 Derby Pts) Trained by Brad H. Cox

This one draws into the field with the defection of Blazing Sevens. He won the Gun Runner listed stakes but has failed to factor in either of his graded stakes attempts. It’s hard to see a way through for this one.

Continuar (JPN) (Automatic Qualifier) Trained by Yoshito Yahagi

The case for Continuar is simple. Draw a line through the last 3 races and go back to the Mochinoki Sho Stakes at Hanshin where he came up just short of Derma. The problem with that case is that he was well beaten by the latter in the last start suggesting they are trending in opposite directions.

Kentucky Derby Early Takeaway

This field lacks the true superstars that we’ve seen in the past. It feels like more than ever punters are wise to keep their options open until after the post draw which could have a significant impact on horses chances and the projected pace of the race.

Continued Derby Coverage

Betting News will continue to produce Kentucky Derby content through the first Saturday in May.