Kentucky Derby 2024 Futures Pool: Early Odds, Analysis

Kentucky Derby Odds Updated 2/5/2024

It’s hard to believe but the Kentucky Derby season is underway. Although the major preps won’t start until spring of 2024, players can already start wagering on the event.

In this comprehensive guide, we delve into the odds and prospects of some intriguing contenders, each with the potential to make a splash on the iconic Churchill Downs track.

Online Racebooks

Many race fans will flock to their local betting parlors during the futures pools to place a bet on their “Derby Horse”

Unfortunately those players may miss out on some of the great advantages that come from utilizing off-shore racebooks.

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Lock In Your Price

One of the most notable advantages of wagering with one of our partner racebooks is the ability to lock in a price. Players within the American market will be forced to place a bet without knowing what their final price will be.

Much like in the parimutuel racing markets that dictate price every day at the track, the traditional future pools will close at the end of the weekend. Players will receive the odds at the close of the pool as opposed to the odds they placed the bet at.

Fierceness: Fixed Odds

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile champion, Fierceness, finished as the favorite in Derby pool #2. Ahead of the 2nd pool opening up he was installed at a morning line of 15-1. He finished at 8-1 with a $2 will pay of under $20.

Inversely bettors can head over to online racebooks and get +1200 on him at a fixed price. Although not much of a difference you can squeeze an extra $4 out of the potential payout for every $2 wager you place. Best of all, the price you bet is the price you get instead of having to sweat out a weekend of parimutuel roller coasters during the traditional future pools.

Take Your Pick

Those playing stateside at their local track will have the option which seems to be more and more common each year. The catch all “All other 3 year old colts” option which finished at 6-5 in Derby pool #2.

It is still very early in the Kentucky Derby prep season. The horses that are good now may turn out to be nothing. Others will jump off the trail due to injury or illness. While the catch all option is the most likely outcome, it hardly seems worth the risk.

Players who use a website like Bovada can actually submit a name not on the list. This allows them to get a specific horse not featured on the current list and get significantly better odds.

Baffert Horses Out

Stemming from the DQ of Medina Spirit in the 2021 Kentucky Derby. Churchill Downs has maintained its no tolerance stance toward allowing Bob Baffert to run horses. The only trainer to win a Triple Crown since the 1970s remains barred from racing stock at Churchill Downs.

In years past this has caused owners to quickly switch trainers just ahead of the Derby to scoop enough points and make the gate. In an effort to curtail this behavior CDI implemented a deadline of January 29, 2024 as the last day to move horses out of his care in order to be eligible for the Derby.

The deadline came and went without a single major player switching hands.

Disappointment for Racing Fans

Nysos, Baffert’s top contender, absolutely romped in the Robert B. Lewis. Without question he is the most talented 3 year old in the country right now. The decision by CDI means that the horse is out of the Derby. If all continues to plan, this one seems a lock for the Preakness and a major player in the Breeders’ Cup Classic down the line.

 

The 2024 Kentucky Derby Contenders

The horses and odds are currently being offered on Bovada. It is recommend that players shop around each of the racebooks to find the best price on their fancied horse. Horses analyzed in this article are at odds of +5000 or less.

Although some Baffert horses remain available on wagering sites no further updates will be provided on them with the horses unable to run in the Kentucky Derby.

Fierceness (+1200)

• Sire: City of Light
• Trainer: Todd Pletcher
• Record: 4-2-0-1

• Outlook: Fierceness is definitely a talented 2 year old winning the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. In the Holy Bull at Gulfstream Park, he put up a real clunker of a race, finishing third behind a rather non-descript group. Backers will point to the fact that he had a wide trip and that this race wasn’t the goal. Detractors will point out that he was eye to eye with a horse on the lead and folded against moderate fractions. This was a pretty concerning effort, but if you think he can bounce back, this is the time to lay the cash as the odds have drifted up +200 since the effort.

Locked (+1200)

• Sire: Gun Runner
• Trainer: Todd Pletcher
• Record: 4-2-0-2
• Outlook: Gun Runners are supposed to get better as they get older. This one showed a fair amount of talent knocking out a maiden special weight and a grade 1 in back to back contests. The loss in the toughest 2 year old field of the year is nothing to blush at. This one is tempting on the idea of maturing over the season. You may have missed the wedding on this runner as the price has been cut in half since the last race.

Dornoch (+1400)

• Sire: Good Magic
• Trainer: Danny Gargan
• Record: 4-2-2-0

• Outlook: Add the Remsen to the tally. The race was impressive with Dornoch fighting back on the inside, but the rail seemed to be the place to run that day so hard to know if it was track or horse. Sierra Leone and Drum Roll Please weren’t good enough on the day.

Born Noble (+1600)

• Sire: Constitution
• Trainer: Todd Pletcher
• Record: 2-1-1-0
• Outlook: Winner of a 7 furlong maiden special weight at Gulfstream Park on December 30. That was followed up by a disappointing second in an allowance optional claiming race. Making matters worse was the fact that the figure showed little signs of improvement. The trainer and sire check the boxes, but the eye test leaves something to be desired.

Sierra Leone (+1600)

• Sire: Gun Runner
• Trainer: Chad Brown
• Record: 2-1-1-0
• Outlook: If you believe the figure makers this one ran a better Remsen than the winner. If you like the New York circuit in 2024, this might be the value coming out of the Remsen, but it’s a wait and see for me.

Track Phantom (+1600)

• Sire: Quality Road
• Trainer: Steve Asmussen
• Record: 5-3-1-1

• Outlook: Is there anyone better at bringing horses along than Steve Asmussen? America’s winningest trainer got an impressive victory in the Gun Runner just before the Christmas holiday. The run was impressive putting away Snead and Nash, but this guy has a lot going for him. He’s undefeated over a mile, running his top two speed figures at a mile and 1/16^th. Despite taking a step back figure wise he won the Grade 3 Lecomte. The last two victory were against 12 and 13 horses respectively which could bode well against 19 foes under the twin spires. He also broke his maiden going long at Churchill Downs. Could Track Phantom be the curse breaker for Asmussen? Early signs indicate he’s in the mix for that distinction. Right now he is probably the most enticing eligible horse.

Hall of Fame (+2500)

• Sire: Gun Runner
• Trainer: Steve Asmussen
• Record: 2-1-1-0
• Outlook: This one is a perfect example of the kind of horses that make the Derby picture so confusing each year. While many horses has been knocking heads in stakes since their two year old season, this one didn’t debut until Thanksgiving weekend of 2023. After a runner up finish in race 1, the horse shot forward with a huge speed figure improvement in race 2. It is a Gun Runner so progressing naturally through starts is a good sign. I’m not ready to jump in at +2500 but the speed figures fit if they translate to tougher competition. A win next out will destroy the price, so maybe worth a flyer.

Knightsbridge (+2500)

• Sire: Nyquist
• Trainer: Bill Mott
• Record: 1-1-0-0
• Outlook: Anytime a Mott wins on debut you have to take a second look. The win was resounding at Churchill Downs and the figure came back very solid amongst current 2 year olds. Bill Mott is one of the best at bringing horses along. This one is very interesting as an under the radar type for a future wager.

Nash (+2500)

• Sire: Medaglia d’Oro
• Trainer: Brad Cox
• Record: 4-1-2-1
• Outlook: This runner was trending in the right direction until coming up short in the Gun Runner against Track Phantom. The big concern here was a step backward in terms of speed figure. This trend continued into the Lecomte. The price has gotten shorter since the first round of preps and that seems a bit of a head scratcher based on the recent performances. It seems like the money is a bet on Brad Cox in a field that suddenly looks a lot more wide open.

Mystik Dan (+2500)

• Sire: Goldencents
• Trainer: Kenny McPeek
• Record: 5-2-1-0

• Outlook: Goldencents was a horse I loved watching race. Now as a sire his progeny are carrying his torch. This one has jumped into the conversation with a wicked speed figure en route to a victory over 10 rivals in the Southwest. The speed figure isn’t totally out of nowhere as the maiden breaking figure was also solid and he proved he can navigate traffic. However, the concern with this runner is that it seems like he got a dream trip on a weird wet surface at Oaklawn in the victory. McPeek horses and my bets are like the stars of a romantic comedy, our timing is never right. Still, I think I will be right in saying this one isn’t the Derby winner though a player for the gimmicks.

Timberlake (+2500)

• Sire: Into Mischief
• Trainer: Brad Cox
• Record: 5-2-1-0
• Outlook: Timberlake looked like a legitimate threat after winning the Champagne. The question for this runner was how good has the New York and Kentucky contingents been. After a disappointing finish in the Juvenile, this runner seems like a second tier player. It seems as though his stock is rising mainly because of the lack of star power around him. The sire has been one of the hottest in recent breeding crops and Cox is one of the top trainers in the country.

Forever Young (+3000)

• Sire: Real Steal
• Trainer: Yoshito Yahagi
• Record: 3-3-0-0
• Outlook: This runner absolutely crushed in the Zen-Nippon Nisai Yushun. The victory left the colt undefeated in three starts and earned him points on the Road to the Kentucky Derby. The best sign for this runner is that the trainer has been on the Derby trail before and may be able to draw on past experience to get Japan its first Kentucky Derby win.

Amante Bianco (+3000)

• Sire: Henny Hughes
• Trainer: Keisuke Miyata
• Record: 3-3-0-0
• Outlook: Won the Cattleya Stakes in Japan to earn 10 Kentucky Derby points. The Japanese have momentum on the world horse racing stage, but this one is out of a sire who was a champion sprinter which doesn’t fit the mile and an eight distance of the Derby. This one would be the first ever white thoroughbred to compete in the Derby.

Conquest Warrior (+3500)

• Sire: City of Light
• Trainer: Shug McGaughey
• Record: 2-1-0-1
• Outlook: This one is a bit foggy for me. The horse won at second asking which is typical Shug. However, the concern with this one is that the speed figure took a step backward. The trainer hasn’t had a ton top tier 3 year olds in the last handful of years, but he is a perfectly capable of training them. A horse this early at a relative short price just doesn’t fit my profile of a Derby winner.

Honor Marie (+3500)

• Sire: Honor Code
• Trainer: D. Whitworth Beckman
• Record: 3-2-1-0
• Outlook: The horse took down the Kentucky Jockey Club on Thanksgiving weekend at Churchill Downs. The positive sign is that bettors can rest assured that the horse can handle the track. The question that remains is what did this field represent? It is positive to see the horse with 3 straight improving figures especially since each has been at a progressively longer distance.

Just A Touch (+3500)

• Sire: Justify
• Trainer: Brad Cox
• Record: 1-1-0-0
• Outlook: The debut effort showed all the precocity of his sire, blitzing a maiden special field at Fair Grounds. The trainer is one who is known for having some of the best stock in the country, but his horses can look amazing for races and then randomly come up flat out empty. The run made by Mandaloun in 2021 is actually the race that makes me think that maybe Cox’s other contenders can step up in a big spot like this. Still a bit early in the career to take this price though.

Speak Easy (+4000)

• Sire: Constitution
• Trainer: Todd Pletcher
• Record: 1-1-0-0
• Outlook: A solid first out winner for Pletcher with a really nice speed figure. This one made a good account of himself at first asking. He needs to keep stepping forward, but it’s Pletcher so that definitely could happen. His maiden breaking figure would have had him in the mix in the Holy Bull so he’s not that far off established Derby dreamers. The sire also suggests that this one will continue to perform as the races stretch out to the classic distance.

Hades (+5000)

• Sire: Awesome Slew
• Trainer: Joe Orseno
• Record: 3-3-0-0
• Outlook: What more do you want from a horse? He lines up 3 times and wins them all, including knocking off the 2 year old champion. Not bad. We saw less heralded Florida based connections take down the Derby last year with Mage. However, this horse feels like one that lucked into a victory in the Holy Bull. The pace was pedestrian and he sat just in behind picking off a Fierceness who either isn’t progressing or didn’t have his best. Good if you had him on the day, maybe a player in the Florida road to the Debry, but hard to see this one being a major factor in May.

Catching Freedom (+5000)

• Sire: Constitution
• Trainer: Brad Cox
• Record: 3-2-0-0
• Outlook: Winning the Smarty Jones was a good step after a disappointing 4^th in an allowance optional claiming race at Churchill Downs. The question remains as to what this one beat in that field at Oaklawn. This one is pointing toward either the Rebel or the Risen Star which will be a much better barometer of where this horse is at in his career.

Drum Roll Please (+5000) INJURED-OFF DERBY TRAIL

• Sire: Hard Spun
• Trainer: Brad Cox
• Record: 5-2-1-1
• Outlook: Winner of the Jerome by an easy margin, but this one has already lost to Dornoch, Sierra Leonne, and Locked. Not that it is impossible to turn the tables, but Cox tends to leave his superstars in the south. Picking off a suspect field in New York during the dead of winter doesn’t exactly scream future Cox superstar.

Nutella Fella (+5000)

• Sire: Runhappy
• Trainer: Gary Contessa
• Record: 2-2-0-0
• Outlook: This one took to the stretch out well enough though didn’t take a huge step forward. Contessa isn’t of the pedigree of some of the other trainers on the list, but he is capable of getting a horse ready for a big race now and again. Too short a price on a lot of question marks.

Rhyme Schemes (+5000)

• Sire: Ghostzapper
• Trainer: Norm Casse
• Record: 3-2-0-0
• Outlook: In the last effort this one won a grade 2 event. However, the horse has disappeared since August. None of the 3 races have been further than 6 1/2 furlongs and Ghostzapper is usually preferred going short of the Classic distance.

Snead (+5000)

• Sire: Nyquist
• Trainer: Brendan Walsh
• Record: 5-2-1-1
• Outlook: The horse did run 2^nd in his last race after back to back victories. Those looking for positive signal will be optimistic that despite the runner up finish the horse did improve his speed figure which could be an indication that he is still progressing forward. When capping horse races you’re always looking for who will be best next time, not last so that upward trend could be a good thing for this one.

The Wine Steward (+5000)

• Sire: Vino Rosso
• Trainer: Mike Maker
• Record: 4-3-1-0
• Outlook: This one hasn’t been seen since the Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland. Early indications are that this one may try the Holy Bull at Gulfstream Park. The good news for this horse is that he has been ultra consistent with speed figures. You know what you’re going to get. If you project this one to take a step forward at 3 the time is right to get in on this Vino Rosso colt. The red flag is that Maker is known for his work in the claiming game and grass stakes. Not that he can’t win the big one on dirt, but he just doesn’t have the same gravitas as some of the other big-name trainers.

Uncle Heavy (+5000)

• Sire: Social Inclusion
• Trainer: Robert Reid
• Record: 4-3-0-0

• Outlook: The horse won the Withers, but before that was beating up on Parx types. The New York circuit just hasn’t produced much in recent years and based on the Withers its hard to see that changing too much here.

The Rest of the Field

This list features the top contender for the first Saturday in May. However, racebooks offer odds on a full menu of all possible horses. Check out full pricing lists at any and all of our affiliated racing websites including BetUS, BestDSI, Betonline, and Bovada.

Follow these horses on their road to the Kentucky Derby on Betting News. Along with our handicapping tools which will be available for all of the key preps, we will continue to provide in depth analysis of Derby prep cards.