Kentucky Derby Contest First-Last Strategy

The Kentucky Derby takes place this Saturday, May 4. As part of the festivities, BetOnline is offering a free contest. Betting News has you covered with some helpful tips on playing the free Kentucky Derby contest.

Free to Enter

One of the best parts of the Kentucky Derby contest offered at BetOnline is the fact that it is 100% free to enter. All you need to do is signup for a BetOnline account. Players who hope to take down some of the prize pool will need to place a minimum of $10 in wagers through either the racebook or betting the Kentucky Derby via the sportsbook.

For those new to BetOnline, you can receive a bonus deposit match when you make your first deposit using the promo code provided on their website. Signup for your BetOnline account today.

Kentucky Derby Contest Format

When entering any tournament it is important to know the format to maximize play. The format of this one is pretty straight forward. Pick the first and last place finishers in the Kentucky Derby. It is important to note that the rules state that a horse must cross the finish line. If the horse is listed as a Did Not Finish (DNF) in the race, they will not count as a finisher.

Kentucky Derby Contest Strategy

Although price doesn’t matter, the players that successfully select the first and last place finishers will split the pool.

This format means that taking the favorite to win and an absolute longshot to finish last is likely to take a smaller percentage of the prize pool as this is an outcome likely predicted by many of the players in the contest. Finding an outlier outcome is the key to scooping a majority of the prize.

Let’s take a look at who are the best options for each pick in the contest.

Find the Winner in the Kentucky Derby Contest

As weird as it may sound, this is probably the easier half of the equation in the contest. Horses have a limited number of paths to victory, but the road to the back of the field includes infinite possibilities.

Ultimately the winner of the races is probably going to come down to one of four factors.

1. Speed and Brilliance
2. Class
3. Pace
4. Development

Let’s take a look at horses who fit the bill in each of these categories.

Speed/Brilliance

My modified speed numbers show three standouts in the field.

• Fierceness (100)
• Stronghold (100)
• Sierra Leone (100)

After that there is a list of prices sitting at a 95 adjusted figure. These horses are Dornoch, Just Steel, Honor Marie, Just a Touch, and Track Phantom.

The wildcards are the two Japanese runners who do not get traditional American speed figures for their races. The consensus seems to be that Forever Young shows speed that is comparable to at least the second tier of runners if not the upper echelon.

Class

This is a really hard metric to truly quantify as horses are really starting to mature. For football fans, the state champion high school quarterback may be head and shoulders above his competition. By the time he reaches the pros, several of his classmates have become better players. Horses are going through this same process early in their 3 year old season.

Based on my gradation, a number of horses tied for the top class rating. They include:

• Sierra Leone
• Just A Touch
• Forever Young
• Stronghold
• Resilience
• Society Man

Pace

Since the introduction of the point system to earn entry into the Derby, the race has seen much more reasonable pace scenarios. There are still the off dead closer coming to win, but betting on a Rich Strike like miracle, just doesn’t make much sense year over year.

The key here is to look for horses that figure to be forward, don’t need the lead, and can sustain the run over a route of ground. The top pace ratings for early runners are:

1. Fierceness (105)
2. Dornoch (103)
3. Just a Touch (102)
4. Track Phantom (100)
5. Stronghold at (99)

Once again the Japanese horses do not earn traditional speed ratings so they are wildcards in the equation.

Development

Last year Mage demonstrated the importance of horses taking steps forward ahead of the Derby. What that looks like is not so simple. There isn’t a great way to tell if a horse is going to get better than the last start and by how much. However, there are some signals that can be pulled to hypothesize who might be getting better and if its enough to win.

• Sierra Leone ran 13 speed points better than the debut in the 2nd career start. This is almost identical to the time between the new top 101 last speed figure and the Derby.
• Catching Freedom has improved every race when stretching out. This race is 1/16th of a mile longer than the last prep.
• Honor Marie found a new top running the longest distance of his career in the same race as Catching Freedom.
• Just a Touch is Mage-like coming in with only 3 starts. Another step forward on the 100 speed figure could be tough to deal with.
• Fierceness returned to the 100+ speed figure realm last out in the Florida Derby and reports are that the horse has beefed up since then.
• Stronghold was a point shy of all time top while encountering traffic. Maybe another step forward here?
• Resilience returned to an upward trend after a bounce in the slop. Toss the wet effort and this one is trending right.
• Society Man was pushed into a graded stakes as a maiden. Since then has shown a nice step forward though the numbers are a bit suspect on the Aqueduct track.

The Kentucky Derby Contest Win Picks

Fierceness and Sierra Leone are not likely to create much separation from the rest of the players. You don’t get points for being clever so if you just want to be right, it’s hard to argue too hard with either. Fierceness seems to have the edge in that.

However, if you’re looking for a chance to cash a bigger part of the prize pool, look to some of the less ballyhooed names. This might include the likes of #18 Stronghold, #11 Forever Young, and #8 Just a Touch.

Finding the Anchor in the Kentucky Derby Contest

A much more daunting task is to find the loser of the Kentucky Derby. The reality is that horseplayers playing the contest have to decide why the horse will lose. Is it because they’re not as good? Maybe it’s because the pace completely crushes their hopes. Perhaps the jock just realizes the horse has no shot and wants to save him for the Preakness.

Needless to say, this is where the contest will be won.

Losing Factors

When looking at the Derby this year, it appears to be a fair pace. There isn’t any indication that one horse will try to rabbit the field like Summer of Tomorrow tried a few years back. This means that horses should be able to largely run their races. Here are the leading contenders from each pace group to bottom out.

Early Speed

• Track Phantom looks like one that could be chasing hard early and may potentially bottom out.
• Dornoch does run some risk of getting boxed up inside and quitting.

1st Flight

• Epic Ride (AE) and West Saratoga both have large gaps in their final figures and late pace numbers.
• Grand Mo the First and Catalytic seem like they might end up spinning their wheels and could wave the white flag if too far back.

Midpack

• Just Steel, Mugatu (AE), and Mystik Dan all lack a finishing acceleration of great distinction. However, this most likely means they run in place, but may not totally drop out.

Closers

• This is a dangerous group to pick for the last place horses because of the fact that even late in the race they are likely to have more in the tank than their early counterparts so may be able to pick off at least 1 or 2 horses.

Unknowns

• T O Password comes in from Japan and maybe the horse just doesn’t take to the American soil and is wiped from world travel.

The Kentucky Derby Contest Last Place Picks

There are a lot of ways to go with this pick. In the last decade the last place finisher has either been a burn out from the early pace or a plodder that never got into gear.

Those predicting a faster than usual pace may want to set their sights on #12 Track Phantom or #1 Dornoch to get discouraged by Fierceness and any other tactical runner in the top flight.

For those leaning toward a moderate pace, the steady runners may just never find their way into the race. This opens the door for horses like #3 Mystik Dan, #5 Catalytic, #16 Grand Mo the First, and #10 T O Password to possibly bring up the rear.

Best of luck and always make sure to read the full rules of any contest you participate in. Click here to enter the BetOnline Kentucky Derby contest.

Churchill Downs Derby Week Coverage

Stay up to date on all the latest action from Churchill Downs during Kentucky Derby week with Betting News including

• Kentucky Derby Post Position Analysis
• Kentucky Oaks Analysis from Churchill Downs
• Kentucky Derby Analysis from Churchill Downs
• Best Kentucky Derby Prop Bets
• BetOnline Kentucky Derby Contest Strategy