Slovenia vs. Poland Eurobasket Betting: Will Doncic & the reigning champs advance to the semis?

Luka Doncic and Slovenia are three wins away from winning back-to-back Eurobasket titles, and today they will try to take care of one of those three wins as they take on Poland in a quarterfinal matchup at Mercedes-Benz Arena in Berlin.

The first two semifinal tickets were punched yesterday, as Spain saw off Finland 100-90 and Germany upset Giannis Antetokounmpo and Greece 107-96.

Greece entered the quarters edging out Slovenia atop the odds to win the tournament, so with yesterday’s unexpected result, the defending champs now sit atop the odds ahead of Germany, followed by Spain.

Poland reached the last eight with an impressive upset of Ukraine in the round of 16. As it is, this is rare territory, as they hadn’t reached this round since 1997.

But can they muster up the effort needed to score an even bigger upset and reach the semis for the first time since 1971?

Slovenia vs. Poland Matchup Information and Betting Odds

Matchup Information

• Matchup: Slovenia (5-1 at Eurobasket 2022, 1st in Group B) vs. Poland (4-2 at Eurobasket 2022, 3rd in Group D)
• Venue & Location: Mercedes-Benz Arena (Berlin, Germany)
• Date: Wednesday, September 14, 2022
• Game Time: 2:30 p.m. Eastern Time (8:30 p.m. Berlin time)
• How to Watch Slovenia vs. Poland: ESPN+

Tournament Results

Slovenia

• 92-85 W vs. Lithuania (Group B)
• 103-88 W vs. Hungary (Group B)
• 97-93 L vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina (Group B)
• 88-80 W vs. Germany (Group B)
• 88-82 W vs. France (Group B)
• 88-72 W vs. Belgium (round of 16)

Poland

• 99-84 W vs. Czech Republic (Group D)
• 89-59 L vs. Finland (Group D)
• 85-76 W vs. Israel (Group D)
• 75-69 W vs. Netherlands (Group D)
• 96-69 L vs. Serbia (Group D)
• 94-86 W vs. Ukraine (round of 16)

Slovenia vs. Poland Odds

Game odds are via BetOnline. Odds from our other recommended sports betting sites may also appear in this article.

Spread

• Slovenia -14.5 (-111)
• Poland +14.5 (-115)

Over/Under

• Over 175.5 (-113)
• Under 175.5 (-113)

Moneyline

• Slovenia -1800
• Poland +800

Slovenia vs. Poland Prediction and Betting Picks

Slovenia vs. Poland Prediction: Slovenia to win

Slovenia vs. Poland Betting Pick: Slovenia -13.5 (Best Value: -115 at Bovada Sportsbook & BetMGM) & Luka Doncic over 30.5 points (Best Value: -102 at BetOnline)

The 16-point final margin of Slovenia’s win over Belgium on Saturday is rather flattering for the reigning Eurobasket champs.

Slovenia entered the Belgium game as an even bigger favorite than they are for this matchup, but they were in a real fight for more than three quarters.

Belgium scored the first four points of the fourth quarter to take a 64-63 lead, and it was 65-65 with 8:33 remaining.

But a three-point play by Doncic on the next possession started a resistance-breaking 17-0 run, and that was that.

If Poland can stay in the game into the fourth quarter like Belgium did, anything can happen. They did that with Ukraine, and then a 13-2 run turned a two-point deficit into an advantage they wouldn’t relinquish.

Germany’s upset win yesterday came despite a big game for Giannis, thanks to hot shooting from the perimeter and not letting other players beat them in addition to Giannis.

It is obviously much easier said than done, but that is Poland’s path to victory as well.

They are shooting just 33.8 percent from three and averaging just 8.8 made threes per game in the tournament, but against Ukraine, they made 20 of 41 (48.8 percent) from deep.

Doncic finished with 35 points, five rebounds, and five assists, his third straight game with at least 35 points. He scored 14, 20, and 16 in Slovenia’s first three games, but he went for 36 against Germany and 47 against France before his big game against Belgium.

Aggression and accuracy have been key for Doncic in this run, as these numbers show.

Eurobasket 2022 Scoring & Shooting Splits for Luka Doncic

• First Three Games: 20-43 FG (46.5%), 4-22 3PT (18.2%), 6-12 FT (50%), 16.7 PPG
• Last Three Games: 40-73 (54.8%), 11-29 3PT (37.9%), 26-31 FT (83.9%)

Luka has only 14 assists in the last three games after tallying 25 in the first three games, but he has taken matters more into his own hands since the loss to Bosnia, and that is what his team needed him to do.

Over the last three games, he has had at least 23 field goal attempts and nine free throw attempts in each game.

Saturday’s game against Belgium does raise some concerns for Slovenia, as does Greece’s upset by Germany. But where Greece had trouble with the supporting cast–a group of pretty accomplished players in their own right–stepping up, those issues shouldn’t crop up for Slovenia, a far more cohesive unit.

This one could be interesting for a while, but ultimately Slovenia will comfortably move on to the semis, where they will face either France or Italy.

While BetOnline may not have the best value with the spread, they offer some excellent value with Luka’s points prop.

I expect him to continue being aggressive against Poland, and that is a great number for a target that he has reached and then some in each of the last three games.