Mariners vs Red Sox: MLB Odds, Prediction & Best Bets (7/29)

The Seattle Mariners have made the trip all the way to the East Coast as they face the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park tonight. This marks the first of a three games series, which will be the final meeting between these squads, unless they meet in the playoffs. Going into this series, both teams have won 2 games against the other, with this three game series deciding who the ultimate season winner will be. To start the season, the Mariners and Red Sox split games in a four game series out in Seattle, but tonight we shift our focus to Fenway Park.

The Mariners are just 4-5 since the All Star Break, however they are coming off a three game road sweep of the White Sox. This is the 2nd and last series for this roadtrip, and Seattle will look to edge out Houston for the top spot in the AL West. Seattle is currently tied with the Astros, and knowing they host the Pirates, the Mariners should be well aware that wins in this series are extremely important. Stud righty Logan Gilbert gets the nod, and I think he can give this Seattle team a greta chance to win.

For the Red Sox, they have seriously struggled since the All Star Break. The Red Sox are 6.5 games back in the AL East, 1 game back of the Wild Card spot, and they are just 2-7 following the break. Boston has dropped two straight at home to the Yankees, and tonight they will need to turn things around. Nick Pivetta will look to dig Boston out of this hole, but he faces a tough Mariners lineup that is extremely motivated.

Can the Red Sox find a way to win at home? Or will the Mariners pull off another road upset on this trip?

Seattle Mariners vs Boston Red Sox: AL Matchup Information

Game Information – Mariners vs Red Sox

• Venue & Location: Fenway Park (Boston, MA)
• Date: Monday, July 29th, 2024
• First Pitch: 7:10pm Eastern

Mariners vs Red Sox Starting Pitchers

• Seattle Mariners: Logan Gilbert (6-6, 2.72 ERA, 0.86 WHIP)
• Boston Red Sox: Nick Pivetta (4-7, 4.50 ERA, 1.18 WHIP)

Betting Odds

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Run Line

• Mariners +1.5 (-190)
• Red Sox -1.5 (+165)

Money Line

• Mariners +108
• Red Sox -118

Total

• Over 8.5 (-115)
• Under 8.5 (-105)

Will Struggling Red Sox Stop the Skid?

Since the break, the Red Sox just can’t seem to figure it out. They haven’t been that great all year long, especially at home, but this team needs a win. That is, if they want to keep their playoff hopes alive. The Wild Card race is heating up, and with the way things are going, Boston will be left in the dust here shortly. That is, unless they start winning games.

Nick Pivetta starts for the Red Sox, and he certainly is not as good at home. His 4.50 ERA jumps an entire run at home, and his WHIP inflates to 1.33. He pitched once against the Mariners already, allowing a solo home run and just 3 total hits in 6 innings while striking out 10 batters. However, he did not get any run support, and took the 1-0 loss on his record. Since the break, Pivetta got ripped by the Rockies for 7 runs on 10 hits in just 2.2 innings. He struck out 6 batters in his 8 recorded outs, but allowed 2 home runs to take the loss as well. In his L2 home starts, Pivetta has lost both games, having to go back to June 5th for his last home win.

Logan Gilbert on the Mound

While the Red Sox bats improve slightly against RHP, Logan Gilbert has the stuff to shut them down. Gilbert leads the MLB in WHIP this season, and his ERA drops a few points on the road as well. While his WHIP slightly increases on the road, he’s still posting a 0.87 away from home. The man is unfazed.

Recently, he took a loss in his first start following the break, allowing 5 runs, but just 1 earned against the Angels. The Mariners lost 5-1, but Gilbert struck out 8 batters in 6.2 innings in the loss. Gilbert has won his last two of his last three road starts, and I see him bringing the heat today. Against Boston back in March, Gilbert pitched 7 innings, allowing just 1 run on 4 hits while striking out 8 batters. In a must win game today, I see him preparing to shove and sit down these Red Sox hitters.

The Mariners actually hit much better on the road than they do at home, but I’ll admit it’s still not great. Hitting .218 as a team, the Mariner’s team average jumps to .230 on the road this year. Against Pivetta who has struggled at home this year, I think Seattle could go for more than a few runs. Pivetta faces 2 Mariners with Elite matchups, 2 more with a great matchup, and 6 others with potentially an above average matchup, all according to batters-box.com (Do NOT Forget the Hyphen). Point being, I trust the Mariners in this situation a lot more than the Red Sox.

Seattle Mariners vs Boston Red Sox Best Bets

Mariners vs Red Sox Prediction: Mariners Win

Best Bet: Mariners ML (+108) BetOnline

In this scenario, I simply trust the Mariners more. I trust Gilbert on the road much more than I do Pivetta at home. I trust the Seattle bats that are hot much more than the Boston bats that still think they are on a break. And I trust a Mariners team that is more motivated and has more to lose than the Red Sox do, in my opinion. Seattle knows they are trying to keep up with Houston who has a much easier series at hand.

This means that any wins against the Red Sox are crucial and could put them in a great position moving forward. On the flip side, losses could be deadly, as the AL West is likely getting just one team in the playoffs. For plus money, I’ll take a stab at the Mariners staying hot on this road trip, and the Red Sox still needing a few games to figure everything out.

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