MLB Best Bets: Team Totals & Home Run Sprinkles | March 29, 2025
Written by: Colby Marchio
Last Updated: Sat Mar 29, 2025, 10:35 AM
Read Time: 4 minutes
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The MLB slate is loaded, and there are plenty of spots worth targeting. From elite offenses in favorable matchups to pitchers with exploitable trends, the data points to strong betting opportunities. Let’s dive into the best bets for today’s action.
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2023 MLB Results: +96.0 Units
2024 MLB Results: +13.71 Units
Friday Best Bet Write Up: 0-2 (-1.0 Unit)
Everything is tracked on my Action.
Phillies vs Nationals Best Bet
Will the Phillies bats come alive again against the Nationals?
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The Philadelphia Phillies boast one of the best offenses on today’s slate, ranking second in average hitter matchup rating behind only the Houston Astros, according to Batters-Box.com. Their lineup features three elite-rated hitters, no poor-rated hitters, two above the league strikeout rate, and two above the league ground ball rate.
Nationals starter Jake Irvin takes the mound today, and he gives up the third-most hard contact on the slate—nearly 40%, which is a massive number. Phillies hitters should be making solid contact all game. Irvin’s trends are even more concerning—when he has a poor matchup rating, he allows over 4.5 hits 66.67% of the time and over 1.5 runs 83.33% of the time.
Last season, the Phillies ranked sixth in first five runs, averaging 2.68 per first five innings. After a slow start against the Nationals on Thursday before exploding late, the hope is that the day off and those hot bats carry over into Saturday afternoon.
Best Bet: Phillies First Five Innings Team Total Over 2.5 (-105)
Giants vs Reds Best Bet
Will the Giants offenses stay hot today against the Reds?
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The Giants enter today with two elite-rated hitters, no poor-rated hitters, seven above the league strikeout rate, and only two above the league ground ball rate. Despite having just an above-average hitter matchup rating, they still feature two elite-rated hitters with strong trends and two more with great ratings.
The Giants face Reds starter Nick Lodolo, who posted a 4.76 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP last season. Surprisingly, he struggled at home, recording a 6.09 ERA in 11 starts and allowing an average of 3.45 runs per outing. If those home struggles continue, the Giants should have a strong first five innings.
In 2024, San Francisco averaged 2.28 runs in the first five innings. This was a gritty team last season—not incredible, but fun to watch. With their young core having another offseason to develop, they should be exciting again in 2025. I think 1.5 is too low for their team total. I expected the prop to be at 2.5 with plus money, but I really like it at 1.5.
Sprinkle: Heliot Ramos HR (+500) + Tyler Fitzgerald (+650) – Take both straight 0.25 units
Best Bet: Giants First Five Innings Team Total Over 1.5 (-135)
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd who spends his free time on Bart Torvik, Ken Pom and Batters-Box.com. He has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog he loves them all.
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