MLB Best Bets: Team Totals & Home Runs | March 30, 2025
Written by: Colby Marchio
Last Updated: Sun Mar 30, 2025, 20:34 PM
Read Time: 4 minutes
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Sunday’s MLB slate has some great spots for early scoring. The Braves get a crack at Nick Pivetta, who has been giving up tons of hard contact, while the Pirates face Max Meyer, who has struggled to keep runs off the board.
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2023 MLB Results: +96.0 Units
2024 MLB Results: +13.71 Units
Saturday’s Best Bet Write Up: 1-1 (-0.19 Units)
Everything is tracked on my Action.
Pirates vs Marlins Best Bet
Can the Pirates secure their second win of the season tonight?
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The Pittsburgh Pirates enter Sunday with the best average hitter matchup rating on the slate, just shy of elite. Their lineup features four elite-rated hitters, zero poor ones, four above the league strikeout rate, and eight above the league ground ball rate. The high ground ball rate is a concern, but Marlins pitcher Max Meyer allows the fifth-highest hard contact on the day.
On top of that, Meyer holds the worst pitcher rating of the day. In seven poor-rated outings, he has allowed over 1.5 runs 100% of the time and more than 2.5 runs in 71.43% of those games. a very small sample size, that I am willing to lean on.
Through their first three games of the season, Pittsburgh has averaged 2.33 runs in the first five innings. Even in 2024, they consistently put up over two runs early, averaging 2.24 in that span.
With this prop at 1.5 rather than 2.5 and available at plus money, I like it even more. If I already expect a team to have early success, 1.5 runs in the first five is almost an automatic bet. Paying -140 is well worth it in this matchup.
Sprinkle: Bryan Reynolds HR (+600)
Best Bet: Pirates First Five Innings Team Total Over 1.5 (-140)
Braves vs Padres Best Bet
Can the Braves get hot early and rack up some runs?
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Same goes for the Braves this evening. The 1.5 first five prop is a bet I have to make, especially with Nick Pivetta on the mound. He allows the second-most hard contact on today’s slate, according to Batters-Box.com. In addition, the Braves have three elite-rated hitters, zero poor ones, and only two above the league ground ball rate. Atlanta also holds the third-highest average hitter matchup rating of the day.
Pivetta, in 10 average-rated outings, has allowed over two runs in 54.55% of them and three or more in 45.45%. He has given up more than five hits 63.64% of the time and six or more in 54.55% of those appearances. Hopefully, the Braves can notch at least five hits off him and generate some early runs.
Through their first three games of the season, Atlanta has averaged 2.33 runs in the first five innings, a team that averaged 2.41 a year ago. Hopefully, they keep the bats going early.
Sprinkle: Marcell Ozuna HR (+400) + Austin Riley HR (+350)
Best Bet: Braves First Five Innings Team Total Over 1.5 (-135)
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd who spends his free time on Bart Torvik, Ken Pom and Batters-Box.com. He has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog he loves them all.
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