MLB Best Home Run Bets Today | April 7, 2025
Written by: Colby Marchio
Last Updated: Mon Apr 07, 2025, 16:36 PM
Read Time: 4 minutes
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Two elite-rated sluggers step into prime matchups on Monday’s slate, and the home run props are calling. Jackson Merrill and Pete Alonso both face struggling arms with clear trends pointing to power upside. At their current prices, both are well worth a sprinkle to leave the yard.
For additional information on picks, props, money lines and more on today’s slate, take a look at our MLB Picks Page or our MLB Odds Page, here.
Best MLB Bets Today, April 7th
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Last Month Betting MLB: 35-49 (+6.33 Units)
Last week Betting MLB: 25-29 (+8.38u)
Marlins vs Mets Home Run Bet
Best Bet: Pete Alonso Home Run (+350) Odds via BetOnline
Can we record our first Pete Alonso home run prop of the season?
The second-highest rated hitter on Batters-Box.com today is Mets first baseman Pete Alonso, who has started 2025 on a tear. He is batting .290 with a 1.066 OPS and has launched two home runs in his last five games. When given an elite rating on Batters-Box, Alonso homers 26.39% of the time—a strong trend across 72 rated games. That is the fourth highest home run percentage among elite rated hitters.
Valente Bellozo led the league last year with the highest meatball rate (13.9 per 100 pitches) 🔽
He faces the Mets on Monday and has the highest projected HRs among starters (0.98 allowed). pic.twitter.com/2PL4AZZIMN
— Ballpark Pal (@BallparkPal) April 7, 2025
Alonso also gets a premium matchup against Marlins starter Valente Bellozo, who holds the worst pitcher rating on the slate. He allows the second-highest hard contact rate today, has the highest average hitter matchup ISO, and owns the lowest ground ball rate among starters. When tagged with a poor rating, Bellozo has allowed a home run in 77.78% of those starts—a sample of nine games.
With the price, matchup, and data lining up, backing Alonso to go deep is more than worth the sprinkle.
Padres vs Athletics Best Bet
Best Bet: Jackson Merrill Home Run (+500) odds via BetOnline
Can Jackson Merrill keep his hot bat alive tonight?
Backing the hottest hitter in baseball to leave the yard at 5/1 odds. Jackson Merrill enters today with an elite rating on Batters-Box.com. In 14 games where he has received that rating, he has homered in 28% of them. That is the second highest home run percentage among elite rated hitters. The 21-year-old is off to a scorching start, batting .378 with a 1.090 OPS and three home runs in his last five games.
Today, he faces Athletics starter Luis Severino, who allows a hit to elite-rated hitters 72% of the time. The 31-year-old right-hander owns a 3.75 ERA and 1.33 WHIP through two starts and gave up two home runs in his last outing against the Cubs.
With how locked in Merrill has been and the trends backing him when given elite marks, taking his home run prop at 5/1 is absolutely worth the sprinkle.
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd who spends his free time on Bart Torvik, Ken Pom and Batters-Box.com. He has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog he loves them all.
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