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MLB Must Bet Prop: Total Bases, Team Totals & Home Runs | August 20, 2024
Written by: Colby Marchio
Last Updated:
Read Time: 4 minutes
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Happy Tuesday!
Two plays stand out today with a powerhouse lineup facing a struggling pitcher, and a top-rated hitter looking to bounce back against a vulnerable arm. Trust the numbers and the trends—these opportunities are hard to pass up.
Top MLB Prop Bets for Tuesday’s Slate
Picks in this piece are courtesy of BetOnline. At BetOnline, you can get great odds on all of the top MLB matchups every day.
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Be sure to follow me on X/Twitter @C_marchio2 to get my full card every day! Check my Action profile on the Action app @cmarchio. Picks are always free.
Yesterday’s write up went 0-4 (-4.0).
New day. New Vibes
Brent Rooker Over 1.5 Total Bases (+116)
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Athletics Newest Father, Brent Rooker Smashing The Cover Off The Ball
The Stank:
Yes, I’m going back to Papa Rooker. He’s once again in the top five hitters on Batters-Box.com. After a 0-for-4 night, and holding the second-best rating on Monday’s list, I’m more than happy to stick with Mr. Rooker.
Small step down in the top 10 for HRR and TB yesterday
• 7 got 1+ hit
• 5 over 1.5 hits runs RBI
• 4 over 1.5 total bases400+ FREE #MLB hitter ratings and more at https://t.co/ES7zRUE7pP
You don’t wanna miss these 🔥 trends for Ohtani and other players in today’s top 10👇… pic.twitter.com/VIDGfGrTfG
— Mike Montgomery (@MikeMonty22) August 20, 2024
He’s facing Rays starter Shane Baz, who, according to Batters-Box.com, has allowed the most hard contact over the last three seasons among today’s starters. Baz is currently posting a 4.21 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP this season.
Rooker’s trends are outstanding when he has an elite rating. He records at least one hit 76.19% of the time, goes over 1.5 total bases 57.14% of the time, and hits a home run in 26.19% of those games.
I trust the trends, the rating, and most importantly, that dad strength.
Sprinkle of the Day:
- Brent Rooker Home Run (+490)
Diamondbacks First Five Team Total Over 1.5 (-154) 2 Unit Play
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The Stank:
MISPRICE ALERT!!
I’ll take this play ten times out of ten. The Arizona Diamondbacks enter today with six elite-rated hitters, according to the current season ratings on Batters-Box.com. They also have the highest average hitter matchup rating, with the entire team graded as elite.
They’re facing Marlins starter Edward Cabrera, who holds the worst pitcher rating in the current season ratings. Cabrera allows the third-highest average hard contact rate to hitters (45.85%). So far this season, he’s posting a 5.76 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP, and in 10 of his 13 starts, teams have surpassed two runs.
Arizona is the best team in the league at scoring in the first five innings, averaging 2.98 runs per game, including 2.71 runs on the road. Miami, on the other hand, allows the second-most runs to opponents, giving up 3.17 runs at home—well above 1.5 runs.
Trust the process.
Diamondbacks team total over 1.5 runs in the first five.
Where to find more Advanced Analytics
Batters-Box.com is my go-to website to find the best matchup ratings for my daily MLB wagers. It is not the end all be all, but it is always a great place to start your journey into your daily baseball bets. Last season using Batters-Box.com I went up 98 units. Don’t believe me? Check my Action profile @cmarchio.
Small step down in the top 10 for HRR and TB yesterday
• 7 got 1+ hit
• 5 over 1.5 hits runs RBI
• 4 over 1.5 total bases400+ FREE #MLB hitter ratings and more at https://t.co/ES7zRUE7pP
You don’t wanna miss these 🔥 trends for Ohtani and other players in today’s top 10👇… pic.twitter.com/VIDGfGrTfG
— Mike Montgomery (@MikeMonty22) August 20, 2024
I also use FanGraphs, Statmuse and ESPN for other stats to help me decide if a player is worth my time or not.
Good luck this season you psychos!
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd who spends his free time on Bart Torvik, Ken Pom and Batters-Box.com. He has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog, he loves them all.
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