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MLB Must Bet Props: Bases & Strikeouts | July 3rd, 2024
Written by: Colby Marchio
Last Updated:
Read Time: 4 minutes
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Happy Hump Day to all of my sick degenerates out there, I hope you are all having an amazing morning.
I know you are having some cravings for some baseball wagers and I have you covered. Here are a couple of player props that grabbed me this morning.
Let’s get after it!
Top MLB Prop Bets for Wednesday’s Slate
Picks in this piece are courtesy of BetOnline. At BetOnline, you can get great odds on all of the top MLB matchups every day.
Write Up Transparency
Be sure to follow me on X/Twitter @C_marchio2 to get my full card every day! Check my Action profile on the Action app @cmarchio
After getting a little too greedy last night, the Tuesday card went 3-4 (-2.1 Units). We got hooked twice on both F5 team total plays. We lived to see today, it’s fine!
Total Bases Prop: Tyler O’Neill Over 1.5 (+125)
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Tyler O’Neil for the Red Sox this season
The Stank:
One of the highest-rated hitters today on Batters-Box.com is Mr. Tyler O’Neill, who is number six in the default and number two on the current season ratings. Today, he is going up against Marlins left-hander Trevor Rogers, who has been struggling all season, giving up a lot of hard contact to opposing hitters. On top of that, Rogers has zero pitches above league average and 77% of his pitches, while O’Neill has been all over all season long.
O’Neill has been having a ton of success against left-handers all season long. In 64 plate appearances, he is batting .344 and an OPS of 1.194 while recording six doubles and six home runs. The Red Sox outfielder has been consistent in his last ten games, batting .250 and recording nine hits and three home runs.
Given O’Neill’s recent form, this could be the perfect opportunity for him to exploit his strength against left-handed pitchers. His two-hit performance last night, following two hitless games, suggests he’s in a strong position to make a significant impact in the upcoming game.
Sprinkle of the Day: Tyler O’Neill Home Run (+430)
Strikeouts Prop: Adam Mazur Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-143)
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The Stank:
My favorite players to take advantage of regularly are pitchers with the worst matchup rating. Today’s victim is Padres Starter Adam Mazur. Not only does he have the worst pitcher matchup rating, according to Batters-Box.com. He also has the lowest average hitter matchup strikeout percentage I have seen all season. Mazur has a rating of 7.41%; I have yet to see a pitcher with anything below double digits. A small sample size is the cause of this one recording 22 innings pitched since being called up. However, I love numbers, and sometimes you must ride with them.
To clarify how low 7.41% is, pitchers with a 32% or higher average hitter matchup strikeout percentage go over 5.5 strikeouts roughly 60% of the time. That is how drastically low 7.41% is.
In addition, the Rangers are a very disciplined team, ranked sixth in strikeout rate. They have zero hitters above the league strikeout rate in this matchup. Texas also has two elite hitters and zero poor-rated hitters. With all these factors in their favor, the Rangers’ offense is set for a successful evening.
Where to find more advanced analytics
Batters-Box.com is my go-to website to find the best matchup ratings for my daily MLB wagers. It is not the end all be all, but it is always a great place to start your journey into your daily baseball bets. Last season using Batters-Box.com I went up 98 units. Don’t believe me? Check my Action profile @cmarchio.
I also use FanGraphs, Statmuse and ESPN for other stats to help me decide if a player is worth my time or not.
Good luck this season you psychos!
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd who spends his free time on Bart Torvik, Ken Pom and Batters-Box.com. He has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog, he loves them all.
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