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MLB Must Bet Props: Bases & Team Totals | July 8th, 2024
Written by: Colby Marchio
Last Updated:
Read Time: 4 minutes
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After a long weekend, we are back on the horse. Small MLB slate today, but there was enough stank for me to brew up a couple plays.
Here is what you need to satisfy your MLB cravings.
Top MLB Prop Bets for Monday’s Slate
Picks in this piece are courtesy of BetOnline. At BetOnline, you can get great odds on all of the top MLB matchups every day.
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Be sure to follow me on X/Twitter @C_marchio2 to get my full card every day! Check my Action profile on the Action app @cmarchio
Another positive week going 16-18 (+7.7 Units)
Total Bases Prop: Elly De La Cruz (+100)
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Reds star, Elly De La Cruz slides into third
The Stank:
Some might say the Rockies vs. Reds game will be a snoozer, but somehow, I found two bets in this game.
Firstly, he is in love with Elly De La Cruz to go over his total base prop. Today, Cruz is in the top ten on Batters-Box.com’s hitter ratings for both the default (Last 3 seasons) and the current season. When having an elite rating, the Reds star records at least a hit 61.35% of the time when having an elite rating. He goes over 1.5 bases 40.91% of the time. This is a 44 elite rating sample size.
2024 National League All-Star Elly De La Cruz ⭐️ pic.twitter.com/hp16volJnf
— Cincinnati Reds (@Reds) July 7, 2024
Today, Cruz is going up against Rockies starter Ryan Feltner, who has zero pitches above league average. All of which Cruz has had success against all season long.
In Cruz’s last ten games, he is batting a solid .231 with a .805 OPS and nine hits, five of which were extra-base hits. After going 0-8 in his last two games, this is a great spot to back Cruz for a little bounce-back spot.
Sprinkle of the Day: Elly De La Cruz Home Run (+450)
Team Totals: Rockies F5 Team Total (-154)
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The Stank:
Time to switch gears and tap in with the road team in this matchup. The Rockies are in the top two in average hitter matchup ratings on Batters-Box.com’s current and default ratings. Reds starter Andre Abbott has the worst rating in the default ratings and the second worst in the current season ratings for pitchers today.
Colorado has been resilient in the first five innings this season, averaging over this number in every situation, home or away. The Reds are also allowing over this number on the season.
With a 3.28 ERA and a WHIP of 1.20, Abbott has consistently allowed teams to exceed this number in 11 of his 17 starts this season. With a combined total of five elite hitters from both ratings today, the odds are heavily in favor of the Colorado boys on the road, despite the high price.
Where to find more advanced analytics
Batters-Box.com is my go-to website to find the best matchup ratings for my daily MLB wagers. It is not the end all be all, but it is always a great place to start your journey into your daily baseball bets. Last season using Batters-Box.com I went up 98 units. Don’t believe me? Check my Action profile @cmarchio.
I also use FanGraphs, Statmuse and ESPN for other stats to help me decide if a player is worth my time or not.
Good luck this season you psychos!
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd who spends his free time on Bart Torvik, Ken Pom and Batters-Box.com. He has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog, he loves them all.
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