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MLB Must Bet Props: Dodgers vs Mets Game 4 | October 17, 2024
Written by: Colby Marchio
Last Updated:
Read Time: 4 minutes
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Happy Friday Junior!
After a challenging stretch in our betting, we’re turning our attention to Game 4 of the NLCS, where the Dodgers and Mets clash for a coveted World Series spot. With so much on the line, we’ve pinpointed a promising opportunity in the first five innings, backed by data that suggests early offensive fireworks are on the horizon.
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Wednesday’s write up went 0-1.
Dodgers vs Mets F5 Over 3.5 (-125)
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Mets shortstop Francisco Lindor celebrating after his home run
Another tough day in the books, but we’re heading right back to the Dodgers vs. Mets for Game 4, and we’re taking the first five over 3.5.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Starting for Los Angeles is Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who’s been inconsistent this postseason and leading up to it. In his last outing, he went five innings, allowing just two hits and shutting out the Padres. Before that, however, he had a rough stretch, giving up 14 hits and 11 runs across 11 innings. Today, he holds the top spot on Batters-Box.com’s pitcher ratings. Despite that, he’s prone to giving up hard contact, has a poor average hitter matchup ISO, and an above-average wOBA.
Tonight, Yamamoto will face one elite-rated Met in Pete Alonso, who went hitless last night. Three of the top five hitters on the default ratings are Mets, and while they’ve struggled to score outside of Game 2, this is a lineup capable of putting up runs in a hurry if they get going.
Jose Quintana
On the other side, the Mets send Jose Quintana to the mound. The 35-year-old lefty is coming off back-to-back strong outings in the Wild Card and Divisional rounds. He’s thrown 11 innings, allowing just one run and six hits. Quintana’s dominance stretches back to early September, with only three runs allowed since September 7th. However, he could be due for an off night as he faces a red-hot Dodgers offense, featuring four elite-rated hitters per Batters-Box.com Current Season Ratings. Quintana also sports a poor average hitter matchup wOBA, ISO, hard contact rate, and strikeout percentage.
The Dodgers, as a team, are batting .299 with an OPS of .849 lifetime against Quintana over a sample size of 154 at-bats. Mookie Betts, notably, has seen him 28 times—the most of any Dodger—and has posted a .286 average, .333 OBP, and .798 OPS against him.
Low Total
Typically, first five totals sit around 4.5, 5, or even 5.5. This 3.5 number seems too low, considering the data points towards at least one of these offenses having some success. There are just too many favorable matchups to ignore in this game.
Let’s see some runs! First five over 3.5 (-125).
Sprinkle of the Day: Pete Alonso Home Run (+400)
Where to find more Advanced Analytics
Batters-Box.com is my go-to website to find the best matchup ratings for my daily MLB wagers. It is not the end all be all, but it is always a great place to start your journey into your daily baseball bets. Last season using Batters-Box.com I went up 98 units. Don’t believe me? Check my Action profile @cmarchio.
I also use FanGraphs, Statmuse and ESPN for other stats to help me decide if a play is worth my time or not.
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd who spends his free time on Bart Torvik, Ken Pom and Batters-Box.com. He has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog, he loves them all.
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