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MLB Must Bet Props: First Five Innings & Home Runs | August 31, 2024
Written by: Colby Marchio
Last Updated:
Read Time: 4 minutes
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Happy Saturday!
I understand that everyone is focused on college football right now, and we have plenty of coverage on those exciting matchups. However, I keep betting on Major League Baseball until the World Series concludes.
So, without further ado, here are a couple of plays to get us started on this MLB slate.
#19 Miami (FL) vs Florida: Odds, Predictions & Key Insights | August 31, 2024
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Week 1 of college football is here! With both coaches on the hot seat, who will rise to the challenge? @C_Marchio2 has everything you need for…https://t.co/2uCCw8vTCk— Betting News (@YourBettingNews) August 27, 2024
Top MLB Prop Bets for Saturday’s Slate
Picks in this piece are courtesy of BetOnline. At BetOnline, you can get great odds on all of the top MLB matchups every day.
Write Up Transparency
Be sure to follow me on X/Twitter @C_marchio2 to get my full card every day! Check my Action profile on the Action app @cmarchio. Picks are always free.
Yesterday’s write up went 1-2. Giants did not do anything, while Snell threw a gem.
Orioles F5 Team Total Over 2.5 (-145)
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Jackson Holliday walking back to the dugout after striking out
The Stank:
The Baltimore Orioles might soon end up on my “Banned Teams” list. Despite being in favorable situations like today, they often fall short of their first-five innings team total.
Here’s why today could be different:
The Orioles are playing at Coors Field against the Colorado Rockies, a hitter’s paradise. They feature four elite-rated hitters, no poor-rated hitters, and only three hitters with strikeout rates above the league average, according to Batters-Box.com. Recently, their offense has been on fire in the first five innings, averaging 3.33 runs over their last three games. For the season, they rank fifth in first-five innings scoring with an average of 2.85 runs.
Rockies starting pitcher Ryan Feltner has struggled at home this season, posting a 5.96 ERA in 11 home starts. He has allowed teams to exceed 2.5 runs in six of those starts. The 27-year-old right-hander faces a tough challenge against the Orioles, who have the second-highest average hitter matchup rating today.
Considering the Orioles’ recent strong performance, the favorable hitting conditions at Coors Field, and Feltner’s poor home pitching, this should be a big game for Baltimore’s bats. They should be able to capitalize early and often.
Yankees F5 Team Total Over 2.5 (-130)
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The Stank:
I generally avoid betting on my favorite team unless I’m really confident in their situation.
Today, the Yankees are hosting the St. Louis Cardinals and facing starting pitcher Kyle Gibson, who has one of the worst matchups on the slate. This season, Gibson has a 4.54 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP. The 36-year-old right-hander has allowed opponents to score over 2.5 runs in 14 of his 25 starts. On the road, he has given up more than 2.5 runs in six of his 12 starts.
Gibson will be up against six elite-rated hitters from the Yankees. According to Batters-Box.com, New York has the highest average hitter matchup rating this season.
The Yankees’ lineup is one of the most dangerous, ranking in the top three for first-five innings scoring with an average of 2.93 runs per game. At home, they increase that average to 3.15 runs in the first five innings and lead the league in first-inning runs.
With such a potent offense and Gibson’s tendency to allow over 2.5 runs in half of his starts, I expect the Bronx Bombers to have a fantastic day.
Sprinkle of the Day: Juan Soto Home Run (+490)
💣 NUKE ALERT 💣
Jhonkensy Noel HR (+350) ✅ pic.twitter.com/JxHpYDjIpU
— Colby Marchio (@C_Marchio2) August 31, 2024
Where to find more Advanced Analytics
Batters-Box.com is my go-to website to find the best matchup ratings for my daily MLB wagers. It is not the end all be all, but it is always a great place to start your journey into your daily baseball bets. Last season using Batters-Box.com I went up 98 units. Don’t believe me? Check my Action profile @cmarchio.
I also use FanGraphs, Statmuse and ESPN for other stats to help me decide if a player is worth my time or not.
Good luck this season you psychos!
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd who spends his free time on Bart Torvik, Ken Pom and Batters-Box.com. He has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog he loves them all.
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