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MLB Must Bet Props: First Five Props & Home Runs | August 27, 2024
Written by: Colby Marchio
Last Updated:
Read Time: 5 minutes
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Happy Tuesday Day!
Yesterday was unusual, but today is a new day with a full slate of games and plenty of opportunities. Here are a few props that caught my attention this morning.
Top MLB Prop Bets for Tuesday’s Slate
Picks in this piece are courtesy of BetOnline. At BetOnline, you can get great odds on all of the top MLB matchups every day.
Write Up Transparency
Be sure to follow me on X/Twitter @C_marchio2 to get my full card every day! Check my Action profile on the Action app @cmarchio. Picks are always free.
Yesterday’s write up went 1-1.
Dodgers F5 Team Total Over 2.5 (-115)
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Los Angeles Dodger stud, Teoscar Hernandez hitting a ball to Mars
The Stank:
We’re back with our strategy of fading poorly rated pitchers, and today’s target is Cole Irvin of the Baltimore Orioles. Irvin has the second-worst pitcher rating on Batters-Box.com and the second-lowest average hitter matchup strikeout percentage.
This season, Irvin has made 22 appearances, posting a 4.82 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP. He has allowed opponents to score more than 2.5 runs in 11 of those games. Additionally, most of Irvin’s pitches are well below league average.
This is an insane price for Shohei to go yaya tonight.
+450 for arguably the best hitter in the game?! pic.twitter.com/Pikn4OetX2
— Colby Marchio (@C_Marchio2) August 27, 2024
On the other side, the Dodgers’ offense is strong, featuring three elite hitters based on default ratings and four in the current season, according to Batters-Box.com. They have no poorly rated hitters and only two hitters with a strikeout rate above the league average in this matchup against Irvin. The Dodgers are the top-scoring team in the first five innings, averaging 2.96 runs, and at home, they are even more formidable, averaging 3.14 runs.
Given Irvin’s struggles and the Dodgers’ impressive offensive stats, this seems like a prime opportunity for the Dodgers to take advantage of Irvin’s weaknesses early and often. Should be an exciting game!
Rockies (-0.5) F5 Spread (-120)
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The Stank:
We’re sticking with Colorado in the first five innings. Last night, we saw them score two runs in the first five innings, and we were hooked on the Over 2.5 runs. Tonight should be a lot different.
SUPER SIDE NOTE: I’ve been betting on “to score in the 6th” or checking the live line for the team total for the first seven innings. If the team you bet on for the first five innings didn’t cover the total, the live line often requires just one more run from them, and you get six extra outs to work with. This strategy has been quite profitable lately, so keep an eye on it if you’re watching these games live. I try to tweet these out live when I do decide to take them. @C_Marchio2
Now, back to the main focus:
Roddery Munoz is pitching for the Marlins today and has the worst pitcher matchup rating of the day. He allows the most hard contact among starting pitchers on the slate and is facing the highest-rated team, the Rockies. Colorado’s lineup is graded as elite, featuring six elite-rated hitters in both current and default ratings on Batters-Box.com.
The 24-year-old right-hander, is part of the worst rotation in baseball. Miami is giving up the most runs in the first five innings, averaging 3.08 runs per game. Munoz has a 5.98 ERA and 1.51 WHIP, and has allowed 3 or more runs in ten of his 17 games this season. Additionally, four of his five pitches are well below league average.
On the other hand, Cal Quantrill is pitching for Colorado. While he has been serviceable at best this season, he faces no elite-rated hitters from the Marlins. The Marlins have an above-average rating overall today.
I believe Quantrill can hold his own and prevent the Marlins from disrupting our plans.
Sprinkles of the Day:
- Juan Soto Home Run (+400)
- Michael Toglia Home Run(+375)
- Teoscar Hernandez Home Run (+310)
- Shohei Ohtani Home Run (+400)
*Auto play when the odds are that high for Shohei
Where to find more Advanced Analytics
Batters-Box.com is my go-to website to find the best matchup ratings for my daily MLB wagers. It is not the end all be all, but it is always a great place to start your journey into your daily baseball bets. Last season using Batters-Box.com I went up 98 units. Don’t believe me? Check my Action profile @cmarchio.
I also use FanGraphs, Statmuse and ESPN for other stats to help me decide if a player is worth my time or not.
Good luck this season you psychos!
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd who spends his free time on Bart Torvik, Ken Pom and Batters-Box.com. He has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog, he loves them all.
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