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MLB Must Bet Props: First Five Props | September 21, 2024
Written by: Colby Marchio
Last Updated:
Read Time: 4 minutes
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Happy Saturday!
The must-bet baseball props are here, and we’re in for an exciting finish! Get ready to dive into some bets that’ll keep you on the edge of your seat. We’ve got two quick, easy plays to kick off the day—one backed by solid theory and the other featuring a hungry team fighting for a playoff spot. Spoiler alert: both teams are clawing for a playoff berth.
Let’s get into it!
Top MLB Prop Bets for Saturday’s Slate
Picks in this piece are courtesy of BetOnline. At BetOnline, you can get great odds on all of the top MLB matchups every day.
Write Up Transparency
Be sure to follow me on X/Twitter @C_marchio2 to get my full card every day! Check my Action profile on the Action app @cmarchio. Picks are always free.
Yesterday’s write up went 1-1.
Champagne Theory is 3-1 (+2.72 Units)
Friday Recap
4-3 (+3.62u) 🫡 https://t.co/7zlVgtOBgi pic.twitter.com/rwxXPxm2zu
— Colby Marchio (@C_Marchio2) September 21, 2024
Mets Moneyline F5 Spread (-120)
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Can the Mets rain on the Phillies playoff clinching parade?
The Stank:
We’re fading the Phillies after their wild celebration last night following their playoff clinch. They partied hard after their 12-2 victory over the Mets, and just look at Garrett Stubbs going all out during the festivities!
Phillies celebrating a playoff clinching win over the spineless Mets. With Budweiser aluminum pints. Love it. Let’s get to October! pic.twitter.com/5H0eO6E5so
— Nick Kayal (@NickKayal) September 21, 2024
Now, they have to regroup and face Mets starter Sean Manaea, who’s coming off back-to-back strong outings, allowing just one run each against the Nationals and Blue Jays and keeping hits under five in both games. This will be the third time the Phillies have seen the 32-year-old lefty; the last matchup didn’t go well for him, as the Phillies scored six runs on seven hits back in June. Here’s hoping Manaea can catch them off guard this afternoon and get some revenge.
On the flip side, Ranger Suarez is starting for the Phillies, but he’s struggled lately, with rough outings against the Brewers and Rays. He gave up four runs on 12 hits to the Rays and then allowed three runs on four hits to Milwaukee. The last time he faced the Mets, he gave up two runs on eight hits.
The Mets are holding onto that third NL Wild Card spot, just two games ahead of the Braves, who are facing the Marlins today. New York needs to win, and today seems like the perfect opportunity to get their bats going again.
Braves F5 Team Total Over 2.5 (-125)
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The Stank:
The hungry Atlanta Braves are clawing their way toward a playoff berth, sitting just two games behind the Mets for the third spot in the NL Wild Card race. They desperately need wins against the struggling Marlins.
Today presents the perfect opportunity to capitalize. The Marlins are starting Adam Oller, who holds the lowest rating on Batters-Box.com‘s pitcher ratings. With a 5.40 ERA and 1.42 WHIP, he’s allowed a combined 13 runs in his last three starts and has let opposing teams score over 2.5 runs in four of his six outings this season.
The Braves lineup boasts six elite hitters, with no one rated poorly and only one player exceeding the league strikeout rate. They also have the highest matchup wOBA and ISO on today’s slate and have been on fire all week. After a disappointing 4-3 loss, Atlanta needs to come out hungry and ready to take advantage of a pitcher who’s struggled all season.
Where to find more Advanced Analytics
Batters-Box.com is my go-to website to find the best matchup ratings for my daily MLB wagers. It is not the end all be all, but it is always a great place to start your journey into your daily baseball bets. Last season using Batters-Box.com I went up 98 units. Don’t believe me? Check my Action profile @cmarchio.
I also use FanGraphs, Statmuse and ESPN for other stats to help me decide if a player is worth my time or not.
Good luck this season you psychos!
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd who spends his free time on Bart Torvik, Ken Pom and Batters-Box.com. He has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog he loves them all.
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