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MLB Must Bet Props: First Five Team Total | October 10, 2024
Written by: Colby Marchio
Last Updated:
Read Time: 4 minutes
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Happy Friday Junior!
Tonight’s Game 4 of the ALDS between the Yankees and Royals is shaping up to be another intense showdown. Kansas City’s bats have been relentless, and they’ll face Gerrit Cole for the second time in this series. The question is: can they keep up the momentum?
Here’s a look at why I’m eyeing an early edge in this matchup…
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Be sure to follow me on X/Twitter @C_marchio2 to get my full card every day! Check my Action profile on the Action app @cmarchio. Picks are always free.
Wednesday’s write up went 0-2. HOOKED ON BOTH PLAYS!
2024 MLB Season: +13.2 Units
Royals F5 Team Total Over 1.5 (-115)
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Will the Royals be all over New York’s ace Gerrit Cole again tonight?
Today, I’m sticking with just one play: the Royals’ first five team total over 1.5. The matchup might not jump off the page at you on Batters-Box.com or other advanced analytics, but it’s about what the Royals have shown all postseason, especially in this series. They’re fearless, hungry, and just seem to want it more, no matter the outcome.
They’re facing Yankees ace Gerrit Cole for the second time this series. In Game 1, Cole went five innings, giving up three runs on seven hits. Kansas City’s bats were feasting on him. Now, only five days later, they get another shot at him.
Here’s how I see it: Last night, Dylan Cease pitched on short rest for the Padres in Game 4. In Game 1 against the Dodgers, he got shelled—five runs on six hits in just 3.1 innings. Then, on short rest again last night, the result was almost the same—three runs allowed on four hits. Unless your ace has been dominant, there’s no reason to bring them out unless absolutely necessary. Why not throw someone new into the mix, someone your opponent hasn’t seen yet? Luis Gil is available on the ALDS roster, and he hasn’t made a start since September 28th against the Pirates.
That said, I don’t trust this move. I’m leaning toward the Royals getting on the board early again. They’ve covered this line in every game this series—what’s stopping them tonight?
Where to find more Advanced Analytics
Batters-Box.com is my go-to website to find the best matchup ratings for my daily MLB wagers. It is not the end all be all, but it is always a great place to start your journey into your daily baseball bets. Last season using Batters-Box.com I went up 98 units. Don’t believe me? Check my Action profile @cmarchio.
I also use FanGraphs, Statmuse and ESPN for other stats to help me decide if a play is worth my time or not.
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd who spends his free time on Bart Torvik, Ken Pom and Batters-Box.com. He has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog, he loves them all.
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