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MLB Must Bet Props: First Five Team Totals | September 1, 2024
Written by: Colby Marchio
Last Updated:
Read Time: 4 minutes
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Happy Sunday!
It’s a fantastic Sunday for baseball with plenty of day games to enjoy before the LSU vs. USC showdown. Let’s dive into two team totals I’m excited about today!
Top MLB Prop Bets for Sunday’s Slate
Picks in this piece are courtesy of BetOnline. At BetOnline, you can get great odds on all of the top MLB matchups every day.
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Be sure to follow me on X/Twitter @C_marchio2 to get my full card every day! Check my Action profile on the Action app @cmarchio. Picks are always free.
August MLB recap: 95-119 (+31.88 Units).
Mets F5 Team Total Over 1.5 (-154)
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Francisco Lindor smiling gearing up for another amazing day
The Stank:
Today, we’re focusing on the first five innings team totals for two teams with five elite-rated hitters each.
First up are the Mets, who are facing White Sox left-hander Garret Crochet. Although Crochet has been a rare bright spot for the White Sox this season, he allows a lot of hard contact, ranking second highest on today’s slate according to Batters-Box.com. He also has the lowest average strikeout rate of the day at just 16%.
The Mets are one of the best teams in baseball at scoring in the first five innings on the road, averaging 2.90 runs. Despite Crochet’s strong season, the Mets consistently exceed this average and have scored more than two runs in the first five innings of the first two games of this series.
I’m confident in fading the White Sox and backing both New York teams today. Up next, the Yankees…
Yankees F5 Team Total Over 2.5 (-140)
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The Stank:
I’m circling back to my earlier comment about avoiding bets on my favorite team unless I’m really confident in their situation. Well, New York is back in a favorable spot today against a Cardinals starter, and I’m feeling confident.
The Yankees feature six elite-rated hitters, giving them the highest average hitter rating on Batters-Box.com’s current season ratings. They will face Miles Mikolas, who has the worst pitcher rating on the slate today. Mikolas has given up the highest average hitter hard contact percentage among today’s pitchers. The 36-year-old right-hander holds a 5.23 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP this season. He’s allowed over 2.5 runs in five of his last six starts and in 16 of his 27 starts this season.
Despite missing their first five innings run total yesterday, scoring just one run, the Yankees remain one of the best teams at scoring early. They should be primed to exploit Mikolas today. Look for Aaron Judge or Juan Soto to hit a home run in this matchup.
Where to find more Advanced Analytics
Batters-Box.com is my go-to website to find the best matchup ratings for my daily MLB wagers. It is not the end all be all, but it is always a great place to start your journey into your daily baseball bets. Last season using Batters-Box.com I went up 98 units. Don’t believe me? Check my Action profile @cmarchio.
I also use FanGraphs, Statmuse and ESPN for other stats to help me decide if a player is worth my time or not.
Good luck this season you psychos!
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd who spends his free time on Bart Torvik, Ken Pom and Batters-Box.com. He has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog he loves them all.
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