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MLB Must Bet Props: First Five Totals, Bases & Home Runs | September 18, 2024
Written by: Colby Marchio
Last Updated:
Read Time: 4 minutes
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Happy Wednesday!
After a massive Tuesday, we’re back at it, fully dedicated to our nation’s pastime! I’ve found a mix of hitter props and totals, and we’re fading some of the worst pitchers on the slate. Let’s get after it!
I’ll be live later today on Betting News’ Twitch at 5:00 PM EST, sharing all my baseball picks for the slate. Come join me, and let’s break down the plays together. Hope to see you there!
Top MLB Prop Bets for Wednesday’s Slate
Picks in this piece are courtesy of BetOnline. At BetOnline, you can get great odds on all of the top MLB matchups every day.
Write Up Transparency
Be sure to follow me on X/Twitter @C_marchio2 to get my full card every day! Check my Action profile on the Action app @cmarchio. Picks are always free.
Yesterday’s write up went 1-1.
Diamondbacks vs Rockies F5 Over 5.5 (-115)
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Corbin Carroll rounding third and heading home
The Stank:
I’m running this play back. Last night, I took the same game prop for the first three innings and got hooked. Today’s price and total feel much better—five and a half is a significant improvement over the six and a half from yesterday.
Today’s starting pitchers, Eduardo Rodriguez and Austin Gomber, are both poorly rated according to Batters-Box.com. They’ll face the two highest-graded lineups on the slate. The Diamondbacks and Rockies feature nine elite-rated hitters combined, with no poor ratings and only four hitters above the league strikeout rate against these pitchers.
Rodriguez has allowed 3+ runs in five of his seven starts this season, sporting a 5.50 ERA and a 1.54 WHIP. On the flip side, Gomber has struggled too, with a 4.44 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP, allowing teams to exceed 2.5 runs in 14 of his 28 starts. Both pitchers are set up for a rough outing.
460 FEET FROM KETEL! 😱 pic.twitter.com/ob4AYqPK5S
— Arizona Diamondbacks (@Dbacks) September 17, 2024
Arizona ranks as the top team in first-five scoring, averaging over three runs per game. Colorado, while at the bottom of the league with 2.28 runs, does improve at home with an average of 2.79 runs. The Coors Field effect means everyone feasts in Denver!
Give me the over!
Mookie Betts Over 1.5 Total Bases (-105)
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The Stank:
Mookie Betts is poised for a big day against Marlins starter Ryan Weathers, who struggles with hard contact and has the third-worst pitcher rating today. Weathers, a 24-year-old lefty, leans heavily on his fastball (40% of his pitches) but lacks standout offerings; while his stats show a 3.55 ERA and 1.14 WHIP, they don’t exactly strike fear..
Betts has been fantastic against south paws this season, hitting .313 with an OPS of .874. With the eighth-highest hitter rating today, he excels against weak rotations, going over 1.5 total bases nearly 50% of the time and hitting home runs 16% of the time in his elite ratings.
After a solid 2-for-5 performance last night that included a triple and two runs, Betts seems primed for another productive outing. Given his recent struggles followed by a breakout game, he’s ready to take advantage of this matchup. Expect big things from Betts today!
Sprinkle of the day:
- Mookie Betts Home Run (+525)
Where to find more Advanced Analytics
Batters-Box.com is my go-to website to find the best matchup ratings for my daily MLB wagers. It is not the end all be all, but it is always a great place to start your journey into your daily baseball bets. Last season using Batters-Box.com I went up 98 units. Don’t believe me? Check my Action profile @cmarchio.
I also use FanGraphs, Statmuse and ESPN for other stats to help me decide if a player is worth my time or not.
Good luck this season you psychos!
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd who spends his free time on Bart Torvik, Ken Pom and Batters-Box.com. He has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog he loves them all.
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