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MLB Must Bet Props: Sides, Team Totals & Home Runs | September 24, 2024
Written by: Colby Marchio
Last Updated:
Read Time: 4 minutes
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Happy Tuesday!
Must-Bet Monday Props: Yesterday was tough—we were just a Diamondbacks run away from cashing the first five team total and a Heliot Ramos hit away from cashing the bases prop. Today, we’re bouncing back with a much larger slate!
Top MLB Prop Bets for Monday’s Slate
Picks in this piece are courtesy of BetOnline. At BetOnline, you can get great odds on all of the top MLB matchups every day.
Write Up Transparency
Be sure to follow me on X/Twitter @C_marchio2 to get my full card every day! Check my Action profile on the Action app @cmarchio. Picks are always free.
Yesterday’s write up went 0-2.
Cubs F5 ML (-128)
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Can the Cubs rain on the Phillies parade?
The Stank:
Back to the well with the Champagne Theory, which is in play again as we fade the Philadelphia Phillies after their division clinching celebration. Following a 6-2 victory over the Chicago Cubs, they celebrated hard, popping bottles and pouring beer everywhere. Today, their hangover will definitely affect them as they regroup to face the Cubs again.
Champagne Theory Record: 3-1-1 (+2.72 Units)
Tonight, Tanner Banks will start for Philadelphia, followed by Taijuan Walker, who we believe will give the Cubs a chance to capitalize. While Banks has a 3.68 ERA in September, he’s allowed a run in three of his seven outings this month. That might not sound terrible, but in just 7.1 innings, he’s giving up a run almost every other inning.
Now, onto Taijuan Walker—he has the worst pitcher rating on Batters-Box.com’s current season ratings. He’ll be facing five elite-rated Cubs hitters, with zero poorly rated and none below the league average strikeout rate. Walker’s sitting at a 6.91 ERA and a 1.67 WHIP, allowing teams to score over 2.5 runs in 13 of his 18 outings.
I believe the Cubs will come out looking to spoil the Phillies’ celebration. They have nothing to lose, so why not spoil the fun?
Padres F5 Team Total Over 1.5 (-160)
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The Stank:
Fading another poorly rated pitcher today: Dodgers starter Landon Knack, who currently has the second-worst pitcher rating on Batters-Box.com. This September, he’s sporting a 4.85 ERA, allowing over 1.5 runs in two of his three starts. Overall this season, he’s given up more than 1.5 runs in six of his 13 outings.
On the other side, the Padres boast four elite-rated hitters, no poorly rated ones, and only two players above the league strikeout rate. San Diego has the second-highest average hitter matchup rating and ranks in the top 12 for scoring in the first five innings, averaging 2.55 runs—improving to 2.86 runs on the road.
Now playing: Fernando by ABBA
Fernando Tatis Jr. homers in the 8th for the @Padres! pic.twitter.com/tjpNBNLEY5
— MLB (@MLB) September 22, 2024
With a 3.5-game lead in the NL Wild Card, the Padres need to keep their momentum going. They must attack Knack early and often. This line seems off given Knack’s struggles, but he could surprise. Still, I’m sticking with the data. Give me the over!
Sprinkle of the Day
- Fernando Tatis Jr. Home Run (+330)
- Ryan Jeffers Home Run (+575)
Where to find more Advanced Analytics
Batters-Box.com is my go-to website to find the best matchup ratings for my daily MLB wagers. It is not the end all be all, but it is always a great place to start your journey into your daily baseball bets. Last season using Batters-Box.com I went up 98 units. Don’t believe me? Check my Action profile @cmarchio.
I also use FanGraphs, Statmuse and ESPN for other stats to help me decide if a play is worth my time or not.
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd who spends his free time on Bart Torvik, Ken Pom and Batters-Box.com. He has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog he loves them all.
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