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MLB Must Bet Props: Strictly Fading Miami | August 30, 2024
Written by: Colby Marchio
Last Updated:
Read Time: 4 minutes
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Happy FRIDAY!
The weekend has finally arrived! They really let us get here. To dive right into the weekend and get the juices flowing on this kind of meh MLB slate, I found a game for that has a lot of potential. Here are three props to kick start our weekend.
NCAA Football Friday 🏈
My guy @Shaggy_Bets and I put together this piece, sharing our initial leans for every college football game tonight.
– Temple vs OU
– FAU vs Mich St
– WMU vs Wisconsin
– TCU vs Stanfordhttps://t.co/OmWMmsRFep— Colby Marchio (@C_Marchio2) August 30, 2024
Top MLB Prop Bets for Friday’s Slate
Picks in this piece are courtesy of BetOnline. At BetOnline, you can get great odds on all of the top MLB matchups every day.
Write Up Transparency
Be sure to follow me on X/Twitter @C_marchio2 to get my full card every day! Check my Action profile on the Action app @cmarchio. Picks are always free.
Wednesday’s write up went 2-0. Finally giving us the well deserved sweep!
Blake Snell Strikeouts Over 7.5 (-148)
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A group of guys smiling, celebrating the arrival of Friday.
The Stank:
Although my track record with strikeout props hasn’t been stellar this season, I’m confident that Blake Snell will dominate the Miami Marlins’ lineup tonight.
Snell is coming off one of his roughest starts against the undisciplined Seattle Mariners, where he pitched 3 innings, allowed 2 runs, walked 6 batters, and still struck out 5. Despite that outing, his current form remains strong.
Blake Snell, Wicked 82mph Back Foot Curveball…and Sword. ⚔️ pic.twitter.com/FYvr1oTLBe
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) August 24, 2024
Tonight, Snell faces a lineup with four hitters rated poorly, nine hitters with above-average strikeout rates, and no elite-rated hitters. According to Batters-Box.com, Snell has the highest average strikeout percentage this season at 36.64%. When he has an elite pitcher rating, he surpasses 7.5 strikeouts 80% of the time, though the sample size is small.
Miami’s strikeout rate is middle-of-the-pack, but they show a 3% increase in strikeouts on the road. With Snell averaging 7.3 strikeouts per game at home this season, this matchup looks promising. I’m excited about the potential here, especially with Snell looking to rebound against a mediocre lineup.
Giants (-0.5) F5 Spread (-160)
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The Stank:
Blake Snell is set for an excellent performance against the Miami Marlins tonight, and the matchup looks even more favorable when considering the struggles of Marlins starter Adam Oller.
Oller, with the lowest pitcher rating on the slate according to Batters-Box.com, faces a daunting challenge. He has the lowest average strikeout percentage and ground ball rate, and he’ll be up against the fourth-highest rated lineup. The San Francisco Giants feature three elite hitters and three great hitters, with no poor-rated or high strikeout-rate batters. Additionally, none of their hitters have elevated ground ball rates.
The Giants are primed for a breakout game, especially given Oller’s 5.23 ERA and 1.26 WHIP. This will be his first road start of the season, and he may struggle without the comfort of his home field.
Compounding Oller’s issues, the Marlins allow the most runs in the first five innings to opposing teams. While the Giants haven’t been exceptional at scoring early, they perform better at home, averaging 2.42 runs per game. After a 6-0 loss to the Brewers, San Francisco should be fired up for this home series.
Given Snell’s potential bounce-back performance and Oller’s challenging matchup, this play is well worth the investment.
Additional play: Giants F5 Team Total Over 2.5 (+100)
- Correlates with everything above
Where to find more Advanced Analytics
Batters-Box.com is my go-to website to find the best matchup ratings for my daily MLB wagers. It is not the end all be all, but it is always a great place to start your journey into your daily baseball bets. Last season using Batters-Box.com I went up 98 units. Don’t believe me? Check my Action profile @cmarchio.
I also use FanGraphs, Statmuse and ESPN for other stats to help me decide if a player is worth my time or not.
Good luck this season you psychos!
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd who spends his free time on Bart Torvik, Ken Pom and Batters-Box.com. He has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog he loves them all.
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