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MLB Must Bet Props: Strictly Totals | August 8, 2024
Written by: Colby Marchio
Last Updated:
Read Time: 4 minutes
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Happy Friday Junior!
Get ready for Friday Junior as the Mets take advantage of Austin Gomber’s struggles, while Philadelphia and Arizona’s red-hot offenses look to capitalize on weak pitching matchups.
Don’t miss out on these enticing bets!
Top MLB Prop Bets for Thursday’s Slate
Picks in this piece are courtesy of BetOnline. At BetOnline, you can get great odds on all of the top MLB matchups every day.
Write Up Transparency
Be sure to follow me on X/Twitter @C_marchio2 to get my full card every day! Check my Action profile on the Action app @cmarchio. Picks are always free.
Yesterday’s write up went 1-1. Today is a new day. Let’s feast!
Phillies vs Diamondbacks Over 5.5 (+102)
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Phillies Star, Kyle Schwarber pointing to crowd after hitting a ball into orbit
The Stank:
What a day to capitalize on some poor pitching matchups!
Today’s targets: Kolby Allard and Jordan Montgomery.
Allard comes into today with the worst pitcher matchup rating on Batters-Box.com, while Montgomery has the second-worst rating for the current season. Both pitchers have ERAs above 4.50 and WHIPs over 1.25.
Let’s dive into the impressive stats for each team’s offense. Arizona has the highest average hitter matchup rating today, featuring five elite-rated hitters, no poor-rated hitters, and only two hitters with above-average strikeout rates. They lead the league in first-five innings scoring, averaging 2.98 runs per game. At home, they boost that average to 3.21 runs in the first five innings. Over their last three games, they’ve averaged more than three runs in the first five innings.
But it gets even better…
Philadelphia has the fourth-highest average hitter matchup rating, featuring six elite hitters, one poor-rated hitter, and two hitters with above-average strikeout rates. They are also among the top three teams in first-five scoring, averaging 2.96 runs per game. On the road, they’re still strong, averaging 2.61 runs in the first five innings.
With two of the league’s most potent offenses facing off against two below-average pitchers with poor matchup ratings, this setup is ideal for an over bet!
Mets F5 Team Total Over 2.5 (-125)
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The Stank:
Happy Austin Gomber Day to those who celebrate!
The Rockies’ starter has one of the worst pitcher matchups on the day, ranked second-worst in the default ratings and third-worst in the current season ratings, according to Batters-Box.com.
Gomber has struggled all season, allowing opponents to score over 2.5 runs in 12 of his 21 starts. He has a dismal 4.66 ERA and 1.29 WHIP, setting the stage for a favorable afternoon for the Mets.
New York is one of the better teams at scoring in the first five innings on the road, averaging 2.91 runs, significantly higher than their home average. Plus, they’re playing at Coors Field, where the Rockies allow the second-most runs in the first five innings, averaging 3.13 runs.
Overall, the Mets are hitting .351 with an OPS of .943 in 54 combined at-bats against Gomber.
This looks like a prime opportunity for the Mets to score early and often. The odds are enticing, especially with the game in Colorado. Here’s to a great Friday Junior!
Where to find more Advanced Analytics
Batters-Box.com is my go-to website to find the best matchup ratings for my daily MLB wagers. It is not the end all be all, but it is always a great place to start your journey into your daily baseball bets. Last season using Batters-Box.com I went up 98 units. Don’t believe me? Check my Action profile @cmarchio.
I also use FanGraphs, Statmuse and ESPN for other stats to help me decide if a player is worth my time or not.
Good luck this season you psychos!
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd who spends his free time on Bart Torvik, Ken Pom and Batters-Box.com. He has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog, he loves them all.
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