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MLB Must Bet Props: Team Totals, Bases & Home Runs | September 11, 2024
Written by: Colby Marchio
Last Updated:
Read Time: 4 minutes
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Happy Wednesday!
The must-bet props are back! After a successful bounce-back yesterday, we gained four units and aim to replicate that success with a few key plays today.
There’s plenty of additional baseball content on the website today, so if you’re looking for more insights, our talented writers have you covered!
Let’s get into it!
BOUNCE BACK CITY, USA!!!
4-3 (+4.04u)
See you animals in spaces tomorrow morning! 🌞 https://t.co/MOXve4dlXM pic.twitter.com/xqghTt9MKw
— Colby Marchio (@C_Marchio2) September 11, 2024
Top MLB Prop Bets for Wednesday’s Slate
Picks in this piece are courtesy of BetOnline. At BetOnline, you can get great odds on all of the top MLB matchups every day.
Write Up Transparency
Be sure to follow me on X/Twitter @C_marchio2 to get my full card every day! Check my Action profile on the Action app @cmarchio. Picks are always free.
Yesterday’s write up 2-0. Matt Wallner carried the day, since we did not take the Brewers play with Hayden Birdsong out.
Cubs F5 Team Total Over 1.5 (-150)
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Cubs rising star, Pete Crow-Armstrong high fiving teammates
The Stank:
I’ve been avoiding backing the Cubs all season due to their inconsistent and sometimes lifeless offense. But today, I’m ready to change that. Why?
For starters, the Cubs boast six elite-rated hitters in the current season ratings on Batters-Box.com. It’s hard to ignore that many elite hitters. They face Dodgers starter Bobby Miller, who has struggled throughout the season. Miller has allowed opponents to score over 1.5 runs in 10 of his 11 starts, posting a 7.79 ERA and a 1.654 WHIP. His fastball, which makes up 40% of his pitches, is his weakest offering in terms of pitch value, and he also allows the highest hard contact rate at 43.84%.
Despite their inconsistency, the Cubs average well over 1.5 runs in the first five innings, regardless of the venue. Even after scoring just one run in the first five innings last night, they won 6-3. Hopefully, the Cubs can stay hungry and carry that momentum into tonight’s game.
Kyle Tucker Over 1.5 Total Bases (-105)
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The Stank:
The wait is finally over—Kyle Tucker is back! Today, he returns to grace us with his greatness. As Brad Evans wisely said, “I am a sucker for Kyle Tucker.” Hopefully, Brad’s got the memo that today is the day.
After battling a shin fracture all summer, Tucker has had a rough start, going 1-for-10 in his first three games back. But today, he faces Athletics starter Joey Estes, who has the worst pitcher rating of the day, according to Batters-Box.com. Meanwhile, Tucker boasts the second-highest elite rating in this matchup on the default ratings and the highest in the current season’s ratings.
Estes primarily relies on his fastball, with a mix of sliders and change-ups. Tucker has excelled against all three pitches, with particularly impressive numbers against fastballs and change-ups. Though his sample size is limited due to his June injury, he’s batting over .300 with an OPS above 1.149 and a wRC+ above 223 against those pitches.
Today presents a perfect opportunity to back a star like Tucker. With elite ratings, favorable matchups against an average pitcher, and the “due factor,” Tucker—and possibly Yordan Alvarez—should have a big night. Both have stellar matchups, so let’s get ready for a feast tonight!
Sprinkle of the day:
- Kyle Tucker Home Run (+285)
- Yordan Alvarez Home Run (+225)
- Mickey Moniak Home Run (+400)
Where to find more Advanced Analytics
Batters-Box.com is my go-to website to find the best matchup ratings for my daily MLB wagers. It is not the end all be all, but it is always a great place to start your journey into your daily baseball bets. Last season using Batters-Box.com I went up 98 units. Don’t believe me? Check my Action profile @cmarchio.
I also use FanGraphs, Statmuse and ESPN for other stats to help me decide if a player is worth my time or not.
Good luck this season you psychos!
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd who spends his free time on Bart Torvik, Ken Pom and Batters-Box.com. He has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog he loves them all.
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