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MLB Must Bet Props: Team Totals, Hits & Home Runs | September 4, 2024
Written by: Colby Marchio
Last Updated:
Read Time: 4 minutes
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Happy Wednesday!
The must-bet props are back after an incredible night of action. Today, we’re looking to keep that momentum going. As more people shift their focus to football and other sports, we’ll take full advantage of the books overlooking America’s pastime.
Tuesday Recap
Trust. Your. Plums. https://t.co/b2ryU8Moqe pic.twitter.com/Y9GJ7tIwyx
— Colby Marchio (@C_Marchio2) September 4, 2024
Top MLB Prop Bets for Wednesday’s Slate
Picks in this piece are courtesy of BetOnline. At BetOnline, you can get great odds on all of the top MLB matchups every day.
Write Up Transparency
Be sure to follow me on X/Twitter @C_marchio2 to get my full card every day! Check my Action profile on the Action app @cmarchio. Picks are always free.
August MLB recap: 95-119 (+31.88 Units).
Yesterday’s write up swept we cashed all three plays.
Twins F5 Team Total Over 1.5 (-140)
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Twins stud Edouard Julien dishing out high fives
The Stank:
The first five team totals went 2-3 on my full card last night, but we’re going right back to the well. Today, I’m all in on the Minnesota Twins to score over 1.5 runs in the first five innings.
According to Batters-Box.com, the Twins’ offense features five elite-rated hitters, with no poorly rated ones and only three hitters above the league strikeout rate. Despite having just one elite-rated hitter in the default ratings, Rays starter Tyler Alexander holds the second-worst pitcher rating on today’s slate.
Given the number is set at 1.5, it’s surprising considering the Twins’ lineup strength, Alexander’s poor ratings, and the Twins’ average of over two runs per game in the first five innings. Although they perform better at home, they still average 2.45 runs on the road in the first five.
After yesterday’s disappointing loss to the Rays, where they managed only one run, the Twins should be fired up and ready to rebound against Alexander and the Rays to secure the series win.
Matt Wallner 1+ Hit (+115)
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The Stank:
Misprice of the century—why is this prop priced at plus money?
Sure, it’s a left-handed hitter versus a left-handed pitcher, and Matt Wallner has one hit in his last four games. But there’s no reason a hitter should be plus money to get a hit. I’ll take this bet every time, regardless of the outcome. Wallner is a player I’m confident in.
According to Batters-Box.com’s current season ratings, Wallner holds an elite rating. His performance trends are outstanding: with an elite rating this season, he records a hit 86.36% of the time (based on a sample size of 22). He goes over 1.5 bases 59% of the time and hits a home run 27.27% of the time. These trends are incredibly promising.
Today, he faces Rays starter Tyler Alexander, who has four of his five pitches below league average. His only positive pitch is his slider, which is barely above league value. Against these pitches, Wallner has impressive numbers—especially against cutters, Alexander’s most used pitch. Wallner is batting .455 with an OPS of 1.418 and a wRC+ of 299. He also performs well against changeups and sliders.
Despite the lefty-lefty matchup, this is a prime opportunity to back Matt Wallner to record a hit.
Sprinkle of the Day:
- Matt Wallner 2+ Bases (+255)
- Matt Wallner Home Run (+640)
Where to find more Advanced Analytics
Batters-Box.com is my go-to website to find the best matchup ratings for my daily MLB wagers. It is not the end all be all, but it is always a great place to start your journey into your daily baseball bets. Last season using Batters-Box.com I went up 98 units. Don’t believe me? Check my Action profile @cmarchio.
I also use FanGraphs, Statmuse and ESPN for other stats to help me decide if a player is worth my time or not.
Good luck this season you psychos!
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd who spends his free time on Bart Torvik, Ken Pom and Batters-Box.com. He has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog he loves them all.
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