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MLB Must Bet Props: Strictly Team Totals | July 11th, 2024
Written by: Colby Marchio
Last Updated:
Read Time: 5 minutes
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Happy Friday, Junior ( Thursday)!
Today’s props will strictly be my bread and butter. If you are not familiar yet with my favorite baseball prop, bet this season, your beautiful eyes will soon know.
Today’s the day to fatten those wallets. Let’s make some money!
Top MLB Prop Bets for Thursday’s Slate
Picks in this piece are courtesy of BetOnline. At BetOnline, you can get great odds on all of the top MLB matchups every day.
Write Up Transparency
Be sure to follow me on X/Twitter @C_marchio2 to get my full card every day! Check my Action profile on the Action app @cmarchio
Wednesday’s card went 4-4 (+1.19 Units)
Time to make Friday junior feel like actual Friday!
Team Total: Astros F5 Team Total Over 2.5 (-125)
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Astros star, Yordan Alvarez admiring home run
The Stank:
Come on! It is my bread and butter. I look for these every single day, no matter the price. I live for first five team totals.
Today’s victim will be Marlins starter Roddery Munoz, who enters today with the worst pitcher rating on Batters-box.com’s ratings. The 24-year-old right-hander has been struggling on the bump all season, posting a putrid ERA of 5.48 and a 1.47 WHIP. He has allowed teams to surpass 2.5 runs in four of his 9 outings this season. Not the most significant number, but he has allowed teams to go over 2 runs in seven of his nine outings. He does not give up a lot of hard contact, but he is not getting hitters to strike out or ground out.
The Astros come into today’s game with the highest average hitter matchup rating in both default and current season ratings. They boast a combined seven elite hitters (3 default, 4 current) and are in the top ten for first-five scoring, averaging 2.63 runs per game. Their home game average this season is even higher at 2.93.
Another interesting point to note is that in eight night games, Munoz is posting a 5.67 ERA, allowing 3.25 runs per outing. For some reason, he seems to struggle more at night, making this a potential betting opportunity.
Sprinkle of the Day: If Yordan Alavarez plays today, bet hit home run prop
Team Total: Phillies F5 Team Total Over 2.5 (-110)
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The Stank:
To be fully transparent, which I always try to be, this one makes me a little nervous, ONLY because of how small the sample size is on Dodgers starter Landon Knack and how he has only allowed one team to go over this number in seven starts.
However, let me feed you the stank on why this is a tasty bet.
Mr. Knack has the second-worst pitcher rating today, with the highest average matchup hard contact (47.95%). He also struggles to get hitters to strike out and ground out.
Ring the bell! 🔔
The @Phillies are the first team to 60 wins! pic.twitter.com/rBcloV1UKq
— MLB (@MLB) July 11, 2024
The Phillies have the most elite-rated hitters on the day, according to Batters-Box.com, with five in the default and six in the current season ratings. They are the number-one scoring team in the first five innings, averaging 3.08 per game. At home, it gets even better, scoring an average of 3.35 runs per game. In their last three games, they are averaging over four runs.
The hard contact Knack is giving up is absurd, and the Phillies’ great matchup ratings make this a must-bet for me. Regardless of how little Knack has allowed teams to surpass this number or his other stats, say stay away. We are going to push through and say the Phillies are going to dominate early and often tonight.
Where to find more advanced analytics
Batters-Box.com is my go-to website to find the best matchup ratings for my daily MLB wagers. It is not the end all be all, but it is always a great place to start your journey into your daily baseball bets. Last season using Batters-Box.com I went up 98 units. Don’t believe me? Check my Action profile @cmarchio.
I also use FanGraphs, Statmuse and ESPN for other stats to help me decide if a player is worth my time or not.
Good luck this season you psychos!
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd who spends his free time on Bart Torvik, Ken Pom and Batters-Box.com. He has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog, he loves them all.
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