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MLB Must Bet Props: Team Totals & Total Bases |
Written by: Colby Marchio
Last Updated:
Read Time: 4 minutes
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Happy Friday Jr. Day!
Get ready for an exciting Thursday with some key matchups that offer serious value. We’ve got our eyes on a struggling pitcher and a rising star poised for a breakout performance—this is one slate you don’t want to miss.
Top MLB Prop Bets for Thursday’s Slate
Picks in this piece are courtesy of BetOnline. At BetOnline, you can get great odds on all of the top MLB matchups every day.
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Yesterday’s write up went 2-0
New day. New Vibes
Blue Jays F5 Team Total Over 2.5 (-105)
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Blue Jays Will Wagner rounding first base
The Stank:
As usual, the MLB slate is a bit of a snoozer on this “Friday Junior,” but there are still some struggling pitchers to target. Today’s focus is on Angels starter Griffin Canning, who has the lowest pitcher rating on Batters-Box.com’s rankings.
On the road this season, Canning has posted a 5.77 ERA, allowing 38 runs in 11 starts. He has given up more than 2.5 runs in 15 of his 25 starts. Adding to Canning’s struggles, the Angels allow the third-most runs in the first five innings this year, averaging 2.88 per game.
Although the Blue Jays have only two elite-rated hitters in this matchup, they still boast the highest average hitter matchup rating of the day. This season, Toronto ranks inside the top 15 in first five innings scoring, and they perform slightly better at home, averaging 2.67 runs.
This looks like a great opportunity for the Jays to strike early and often against Canning and the Angels.
Jackson Merrill Over 1.5 Total Bases (+110)
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The Stank:
This NL Rookie of the Year hopeful, Jackson Merrill, is in a prime spot against New York Mets starter Luis Severino. As the lone elite-rated hitter in this Mets vs. Padres game, Merrill is poised for another big performance. The Padres’ 21-year-old outfielder has been on a tear lately, recording a hit in six straight games, with an extra-base hit in five of those.
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Merrill’s trends are extremely promising. Although the sample size for games with an elite rating is small, he’s recorded at least one hit in 85.71% of those games, gone over 1.5 total bases in 71.43%, and surpassed his 1.5 hits+runs+rbi prop in 85.71%. He’s an absolute force at the plate.
While Severino can be tough at times, he’s struggled on the road, posting a 4.85 ERA in 11 starts. Despite coming off a four-hit shutout against the Marlins in his last outing, this could be a letdown spot for him.
Even though some regression is possible, I’m riding the hot, dangerous bat. The numbers are too good to ignore. I’m taking Jackson Merrill to go over his total bases prop.
Where to find more Advanced Analytics
Batters-Box.com is my go-to website to find the best matchup ratings for my daily MLB wagers. It is not the end all be all, but it is always a great place to start your journey into your daily baseball bets. Last season using Batters-Box.com I went up 98 units. Don’t believe me? Check my Action profile @cmarchio.
I also use FanGraphs, Statmuse and ESPN for other stats to help me decide if a player is worth my time or not.
Good luck this season you psychos!
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd who spends his free time on Bart Torvik, Ken Pom and Batters-Box.com. He has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog, he loves them all.
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