Twins vs Tigers: MLB Prediction, Odds & Best Bets (7/27)

The Minnesota Twins travel to east to take on their division rival, the Detroit Tigers, tonight in Comerica Park. There is no love lost between these squads who have already seen each other for 11 games this 2024 MLB Season. Things were all tied up at 5 games a piece going into last night’s contest, but a 9-3 win for the Twins gave them the slight edge on the season series against Detroit.

The Twins are battling for playoff seeding and potentially the top of the division as they are just 4.5 games behind Cleveland in the AL Central and just 1 game ahead of the Royals in the Wild Card. Minnesota has won two straight games and 3 of their L4 overall, but now they are on the road where they do see their splits drop slightly. Wins are a must for this Twins team who have their rivals breathing down their neck.

While the Tigers are 12 games back in the division, they have struggled at home as well. They are 4-4 since the All Star Break but have lost 3 of their last 4. Tarik Skubal is coming off a great outing and I think he could do it again at home tonight. The Tigers bats improve at home as well, but facing Joe Ryan will not be an easy task at all.

Do they have what it takes to bounce back against Minnesota at home? Or will the Twins gain another game in the AL Central standings?

Twins vs Tigers Game Information: AL Central Rivalry

Matchup Information – Twins vs Tigers

• Venue & Location: Commerica Park (Detroit, MI)
• Date: Saturday, July 27th, 2024
• First Pitch: 6:10pm Eastern

Twins vs Tigers Starting Pitchers

• Minnesota Twins: Joe Ryan (6-6, 3.65 ERA, 1.01 WHIP)
• Detroit Tigers: Tarik Skubal (11-3, 2.34 ERA, 0.92 WHIP)

Betting Odds

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Run Line

• Twins +1.5 (-240)
• Tigers -1.5 (+200)

Money Line

• Twins -112
• Tigers +102

Total

• Over 6.5 (-116)
• Under 6.5 (-104)

Low Total for Two Stud Pitchers

Tarik Skubal had a great outing since the All Star Break. He pitched 7 innings in Cleveland, allowing just 1 earned run as he picked up his 11th win of the season. Skubal has not lost a home start this year, however he has escaped with no decision a couple times. His already low ERA drops all the way down to 1.87 at Comerica Park, and his sub 1.00 WHIP drops down to 0.84 at home as well. The guy simply deals at home. Lefties can hardly touch him, as they hit .175 and righties only manage .205 against him this season, and the Twins don’t hit too well on the road. However, they love batting against LHP.

Minnesota hits .279 as a team against Left Handed Pitchers this season, which leads the MLB. They also batted .282 in June and are hitting .272 in July, meaning the team is seeing the ball well as a whole. I think if anyone is able to knock around Skubal at home, it would be the Twins. They’ve scored 5+ runs in 4/6 games since the All Star Break, and batting .280 against lefties cannot be overlooked.

Joe Ryan Bounce Back Game

On the flip side of things, Joe Ryan pitches for Minnesota on the road where his ERA drops nearly 40 points. However, Ryan’s last 3 losses have all come away from home, and his last road win was on May 21st in Washington. Ryan has allowed 12 runs in his L3 outings, and with his recent struggles, it begs the question, why is this total so low?

I’ll tell you why. The Tigers can’t hit. Their .233 average drops down against RHP and they’ve already seen Ryan pitch twice. In those two outings, Ryan allowed 4 earned runs in 11.1 innings while striking out 18 batters. A third time facing this lineup means he could likely have a great start and shove. This would be a perfect game for him to show his stuff, get right before a playoff push, and get a much needed win for his team. Skubal shut out Minnesota at home back in April, allowing just 2 hits in 5 innings, but in July they took him for 3 runs, including a home run.

I think both pitchers thrive tonight, so I’d suggest plugging your nose while we place this bet.

Minnesota Twins vs Detroit Tigers Best Bets

Twins vs Tigers Prediction: Twins Win

Best Bet: MIN/DET Under 6.5 (-104) BetOnline

This is gross, it’s disgusting, but I think this game is very low scoring. We know what both pitchers are capable of, even if Ryan has not shown his stuff recently. Both have pitched well against the other team before, and I think they are capable of shoving again tonight. This would be a great “get right” spot for Ryan who the Twins will need in order to make a playoff push. As for the Tigers, Skubal continues to be their shining moment in an otherwise gray season. I could see both pitchers making very quick work of their opponent, and giving their defenses a bit of a rest with plenty of strikeouts.

I lean more with Minnesota to eventually pull off this win, as I trust their bullpen more than the Tigers. However, if Skubal can face the Twins into the deeper innings, we may see a scoreless game headed into extras.

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