Twins vs Tigers, Predictions, Odds & Best Bets: Maeda & Olson Keep it UNDER Wraps

Get on the horse and join me on this journey, friends. We’re kicking off our Thursday Morning/Afternoon with some good ol’ fashioned AL Central fun. That’s what we all love about Major League Baseball, right? A classic BANGER mashup between the first place, 60-55 Minnesota Twins and the 3rd place, 50-63 Detroit Tigers.

Coming off a home series sweep of the confusing, Arizona Diamondbacks, the Twins were hoping to roll into Detroit and continue to stack up games in the Win Column. However, here we are in Game 4 of the series and it’s a battle to not give up the Series W to either side. With their win Wednesday night, the Tigers solidified their first series tie in the last 5, as they haven’t even gone .500 in one since hosting San Diego a few weeks ago.

Today’s day-game matchup between Kenta Maeda and Reese Olson could certainly become a bit of a duel, looking at their respective numbers against each lineup.

We have to dial it in and see what’s the sharper take — the Twins-Tigers bats staying hot after a 9-5 shootout, or Reese Olson being able to repeat one of his best games of the season, where against the Twins earlier this year he went 5.1 IP with 1R and 9K’s?

Let’s dive in.

Twins vs Tigers Game Information

Take it away, Tork! #RepDetroit pic.twitter.com/KV9ttuHe82

— Detroit Tigers (@tigers) August 10, 2023

Matchup Information

• Venue & Location: Comerica Park, Detroit, MI
• Date: Thursday, August 10th, 20223
• First Pitch: 1:10 PM EST

Pitching Matchup

• Minnesota Twins: Kenta Maeda (3-6, 4.22 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 10.85 K/9)
• Detroit Tigers: Reese Olson (1-5, 4.94 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 8.23 K/9)

Betting Odds

• Odds courtesy of Bovada

Runline

• Minnesota Twins -1.5 (+115)
• Detroit Tigers +1.5 (-140)

Moneyline

• Minnesota Twins (-145)
• Detroit Tigers (+122)

Run Totals

• Over 8.5 (-115)
• Under 8.5 (-105)

Hear from Rocco Baldelli following tonight’s loss. 🎤#MNTwins pic.twitter.com/0GPkjdXBlM

— Bally Sports North (@BallySportsNOR) August 10, 2023

Minnesota Twins vs Detroit Tigers Predictions & Best Bets

Hearing from skipper Rocco Baldelli, the Twins didn’t show up last night. Not to put words in his mouth, but the pitching staff was serving Thanksgiving Dinner without any kind of catering bill, no tip, no insurance, not even a thank you card. They were flat down the stretch and couldn’t get any of those runs back.

So, what team is going to show up to Comerica Park on Thursday Afternoon against Reese Olson? This Twins team saw Reese once earlier this year and got close to nothing started. Now, having said that, the 24-year-old Olson has been far from special over his most recent three starts — giving up 13 runs over 16 innings pitched. This two game stretch for the Tigers putting up 6 runs and then 9 runs last night… yea, that’s the fist time they’ve put up 6+ in back-to-back games this side of the All-Star Break. They’ve only put up 5+ runs in back-to-back games once.

So, there are ways to look at this. The Tigers bats have been absurdly hot, by their standards, and in walks Kenta Maeda. Surface-level, Kenta’s no Nolan Ryan. He’s no peak Tim Lincecum. You what he is though? He’s a ROAD – WARRIOR. He’s night and day from when he pitches at Target Field vs on the road, where he touts a 3.16 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, but 12.36 K/9.

According to the handiest of dandiest stat guidelines provided by Baseball Savant, Kenta Maeda’s in the 75th Percentile or greater in K% (88), Chase Rate (82), and Whiff % (77). If you then head to TeamRankings to check out which teams have the highest K-rate, you’ll find Detroit with the 11th most on the season and 3rd most over the last 3 games (all against Minnesota.). With the splits that I’m seeing, at approximately 10:30PM PST, Wesdnedsay night, 42% of the bets but 85% of the handle is on the under 8.5.

That’s where I’m leaning. I like close to a quality start out of Maeda, with Reese Olson having a surprisingly controlled game as late. Let’s not have too much recency bias here and recognize Reese’s ability vs a Twins team that’s even WORSE with their K-rates (2nd highest on the road at 10.47.)

This game should be around 4-3, 3-2 and with the odds where they are — I think…

THE BEST BET: TWINS-TIGERS U8.5 (-105) via Bovada

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Player Props: Kenta Maeda o6 K’s + Olson o6 K’s (+242) via Bovada

Kenta’s line has been fluctuating all night between 6.5 and 6, which worries me a bit, but at the end of the day — I’m a numbers guy. I’m sticking with what I saw last night and we’re all the way in on Maeda today. For Reese, this should be another career day. He hasn’t eclipsed 5K’s in his last 7 starts. I’ll venmo you 100 Dollhairs if you can guess who he went up against, the last time he had 6+….

Just strap in and turn the A/C on full blast because this may get sweaty.

LET’S RIDE.

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