UFC Mexico Brandon Moreno vs Steve Erceg Best Bets, Analysis, Predictions & Watch Info

The UFC is headed across the border tonight for a huge fight card in Mexico City. Being at 7,300 ft of elevation is certainly to provide some drama to the 13 fight card.

With a  near perfect weigh in, 25 of 26 fighters on the card have successfully made weight for their bouts. The lone miss, Ronaldo Rodriguez, came in 1 pound over the limit for his flyweight matchup.

The Main Event features an interesting match up in the flyweight division between Mexican star Brandon Moreno , and the Aussie Steve Erceg. With this being such an important fight for each fighters career.

Erceg is looking to break a 2 fight skid and get back on track to the title. While Moreno is riding a little bit of momentum off a solid win over top prospect Amir Albazi. Another win would certainly throw his name back into title contention.

Will Erceg pass the veteran test and get back on track or will Moreno prove his dominance once again to gain a title shot? It all goes down tonight at UFC Mexico!

I have created this UFC Mexico Best Bets guide to provide deeper analysis on some of the big fights and provide our readers here at Betting News with the best gambling experience possible for UFC Mexico. Lines are moving, money is coming in and there is less then 24 hours to get our bets in so lets dive into it!

All betting odds are presented by BetOnline.ag as of  3/28/2025 10PM

UFC Mexico Main Event: Brandon Moreno vs Steve Erceg Analysis

UFC Mexico is headlined by one of Mexico’s biggest stars in Brandon Moreno, taking on one of the bigger prospects in the flyweight division, Steve Erceg.

The 2x champion Moreno is a very well rounded fighter with an impressive UFC Resume. His striking is fast versatile and dynamic while his wrestling and BJJ game are top notch as well. Being a decorated black belt in BJJ, it translates to his game with great takedowns, scrambles and submission attempts.

At a turning point in his career, this fight will determine the future of the Mexican Star. On a hit or miss streak as of late, Moreno is coming off one of the best performances of his career against Amir Albazi.  Putting on a complete striking master class, the former champion landed over 132 significant strikes while cruising to a decision win.

With back to back disappointing performances before that, which version of Moreno will show up Saturday?

Will Erceg get back in the win column?

Across the octagon, Steve Erceg is looking to break his 2 fight losing streak. It must be said both of those losses were against the current champ, then the #1 contender. Not exactly bad losses all things considered.

Being finished in his last fight he has taken some time off to regroup and improve his skills. Erceg rose to hype by showing impressive striking and even more impressive BJJ.

He has built his game around his striking skills, showing great movement while throwing volume and mixing his attacks. From what he has shown on the ground, he has shown slick submission attempts.

Almost submitting the champion multiple times in his title fight, he proved just how dangerous he can be when taken down. In this fight he will get the fight he wants out of Moreno. Both Fighters prefer to stand and trade rather then take it to the ground.

In a kickboxing match, I prefer the youth and speed advantage in Erceg to right the ship against the Mexican Superstar. With the underdog winning in 4 of the last 5 Main Events in Mexico, I expect Erceg to have a great night.

Brandon Moreno vs Steve Erceg Prediction: Steve Erceg Wins (+215) at BetOnline.ag

Brandon Moreno vs Steve Erceg Best Bet: Steve Erceg Wins (+215) at BetOnline.ag

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UFC Mexico Co – Main Event: Manuel Torres vs Drew Dober – Lightweight

The Co – Main Event is sure to be fireworks featuring 2 of the current decorated finishers in the lightweight division.

Drew Dober being the knock out king of the lightweight division, holds the record for most career knock outs in this division. Coming off back to back losses, he is looking to get back in the win column against the Mexican star.

With solid kickboxing, he has made a career out of using his cardio and durability to break opponents. Combining that with heavy hands and volume striking, he has become a solid veteran in the UFC with over 23 fights.

While not sporting the best takedown defense statistics, the numbers don’t tell the story. Having a great game against the fence, he has shown great takedown defense against non – elite wrestlers.

Getting his first knockout loss of his career in his last fight. One tends to wonder if the chin is finally starting to fail the aging veteran.

Can Torres Bounce Back?

Manuel Torres has become quite the finishing specialist himself in his UFC tenure. Finishing all 4 of his wins under the UFC banner. 3 of those coming by knockout, and 1 by submission.

He has proven to be well rounded in his career, having very sneaky submission attempts. In the striking department , he has heavy hands but has been some what of a low volume striker. Mostly looking for the big shot in his fights rather then mixing in a jab or multiple combinations in exchanges.

Cardio has been his biggest problem through out his career. He has slowed down in almost all of his fights that he did not finish in the first 2 minutes. Fighting at such a high pace in all of his fights, its shown to have a down side in his game.

Looking to bounce back off a tough loss to fellow prospect Bahamondes, I expect improvements from the Mexican star. Being only 30 years old , he still has a long career ahead of him. If he can keep his cardio up for more then 7.5 minutes, I expect him to catch Dober in a tough position at some point in this fight.

Manuel Torres vs Drew Dober Prediction: Under 1.5 Total Rounds (-210) at BetOnline.ag

Manuel Torres vs Drew Dober Best Bet: Manuel Torres Moneyline (-115) at BetOnline.ag

Ronaldo Rodriguez vs Kevin Borjas Analysis – Flyweight

Ronaldo Rodriguez has cashed in on his hype from UFC Noche. Gathering over 1 million Instagram followers since the event. Rodriguez has turned into quite the superstar to the Mexican UFC fans.

Making just his 3rd UFC appearance, he has shown he is an exciting fighter in his tenure. All 3 of his bouts have been significantly violent, with him winning 2 of them by finish.

He mostly prefers to take the fight to the ground, having a great grappling facet to his game. Rodriguez is a great wrestler with solid takedown attempts, getting most opponents to the ground. Once there, he has great control and submission attempts always trying to finish the fight.

In the striking department, he has shown to throw caution to the wind. Abandoning all striking defense to engage in wild striking exchanges. Turning some of his bouts into bar room brawls, his chin has been cracked a few times.

Almost being finished in his last fight and having to rally back for a split decision win. I expect him to stick to what he is best at in this matchup and use his grappling to control the fight.

Will Rodriguez make the most of his hype?

Across the cage, well see Kevin Borjas looking for his first official UFC win. Borjas has had back to back tough losses against great prospects.

Having tough luck in the match making department, Borjas has tried to make the best of his tenure. With both of his appearances being highly competitive, he has shown he belongs in the UFC.

Kevin Borjas is primarily a kick boxer, using his long range and movement to aid his volume striking. All though he has 8 wins by knockout , he has not shown just how heavy his hands are. With just 1 official knockdown in his UFC career.

His ground game has proven to be a huge problem. The takedown defense just has not developed, looking like a fish out of water when taken down. Coming off a tough TKO loss on the ground at the hands of Costa, he looks to make improvements in this matchup.

With so many high probability ways of this fight ending inside the distance, I lean to the total rather a winner in this spot.

Ronaldo Rodriguez vs Kevin Borjas Prediction: Ronaldo Rodriguez Wins (-163) at BetOnline.ag

Ronaldo Rodriguez vs Kevin Borjas Best Bet: Under 2.5 Rounds (+130) at BetOnline.ag

UFC Mexico Schedule & FAQ:

When is UFC Mexico?

• UFC Mexico will take place Saturday, March 29th, 2025.

Where is UFC Mexico?

• UFC Mexico will go down live at The CDMX Arena in Mexico City, Mexico.

What time does UFC Mexico start?

• UFC Mexico Preliminary Card start time: 4 p.m. ET
• UFC Mexico Main Card start time: 7 p.m. ET

How to Watch UFC Mexico?

• UFC Mexico Preliminary Card Coverage: ESPN+
• UFC Mexico Main Card Coverage: ESPN+

How to Bet on UFC Mexico?

• Most international and domestic sportsbooks will carry odds for a fight card of this caliber but click here for some sites and applications us bettors here at Betting News recommend for a great UFC betting experience.

If one thing is for sure, Saturday’s card is sure to bring the action. I hope this betting guide helps bring more context to your UFC entertainment experience.

Looking for more ways and strategies to bet the UFC? Check out our UFC BETTING GUIDE! Take betting the Octagon to the next level!