<p>After his umpteenth run-in with misfortune this season, William Byron’s hopes of reaching the Championship 4 for the third consecutive season rest on a Martinsville masterpiece today. If he can dodge disaster remains to be seen, but he will at least start the Xfinity 500 (2:00 p.m. ET, NBC) with the best seat in the house.</p>
<p>After overcoming a variety of disappointments to win the regular season championship, Byron successfully navigated the first two playoff rounds without drama. But at the worst possible time, the Baron of Bad Luck has reemerged.</p>
<p>At Las Vegas Motor Speedway, it was Ty Dillon appearing out of nowhere to ruin what was on target to be at least a top-three finish in the <a href="/articles/nascar/cup-series-2025-south-point-400-predictions-picks/">South Point 400</a>.</p>
<p>In last week’s <a href="/articles/nascar/cup-series-2025-yellawood-500-predictions-picks/">YellaWood 500</a> at Talladega, Byron was in contention for the win and even led at a late restart after his bump sent leader Chris Buescher into the wall and out of the race on the penultimate lap.</p>
<p>But in overtime, his shot at the win took a hit when he found himself behind teammate Kyle Larson when Larson ran out of gas, then he was sent spinning in the final turn by Carson Hocevar and all the way down to 25<sup>th</sup>.</p>
<p>So, instead of finding himself in a positive position for a Championship 4 spot after consecutive top-five finishes, Byron instead enters the Xfinity 500 in fifth, 36 points behind Christopher Bell and almost certainly needing a victory to be one of the championship combatants at Phoenix Raceway next Sunday.</p>
<h2>NASCAR Cup Series Playoff Standings (Entering the Xfinity 500)</h2>
<p><em><strong>Hamlin advanced to the Championship 4 with a win in the South Point 400, while Briscoe advanced to the Championship 4 with a win in the YellaWood 500.</strong></em></p>
<ul>
<li><strong>1. Chase Briscoe &#8211; Advanced to Championship 4</strong></li>
<li><strong>2. Denny Hamlin &#8211; Advanced to Championship 4</strong></li>
<li>3. Christopher Bell &#8211; 4107</li>
<li>4. Kyle Larson &#8211; 4106</li>
<li>5. William Byron &#8211; 4070</li>
<li>6. Joey Logano &#8211; 4068</li>
<li>7. Ryan Blaney &#8211; 4059</li>
<li>8. Chase Elliott &#8211; 4044</li>
</ul>
<p>But it ain’t over ‘til it’s over, and Byron certainly hasn’t mailed it in. In qualifying yesterday, he edged Ty Gibbs by 0.002 to claim his first pole at Martinsville and his first pole since the April race at Darlington.</p>
<p>BetOnline and other top online sportsbooks have Byron as the Xfinity 500 favorite after his pole win, but he is up against some unfavorable odds. The polesitter has not won this race since Jimmie Johnson in 2012, and no one has won from pole at either Martinsville race since Johnson did in the spring race in 2013.</p>
<h2><a href="https://affiliates.bettingnews.com/register/betonline/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Odds to Win the Xfinity 500</a></h2>
<ul>
<li>William Byron +300</li>
<li>Chase Elliott +425</li>
<li>Denny Hamlin +500</li>
<li>Ryan Blaney +575</li>
<li>Kyle Larson +750</li>
<li>Joey Logano +1000</li>
<li>Christopher Bell +1100</li>
<li>Bubba Wallace +1600</li>
<li>Chase Briscoe +2000</li>
<li>Ty Gibbs +2200</li>
<li>Kyle Busch +2800</li>
<li>Brad Keselowski +3300</li>
<li>Josh Berry +3300</li>
<li>Alex Bowman +3300</li>
<li>Ross Chastain +4000</li>
<li>Tyler Reddick +5000</li>
<li>Ryan Preece +6000</li>
<li>Daniel Suarez +7500</li>
</ul>
<h2>Xfinity 500 Predictions and Picks</h2>
<h3><a href="https://affiliates.bettingnews.com/register/luckyrebel/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">William Byron to Finish in the Top Three (+100 at Lucky Rebel)</a></h3>
<p>There is a small chance that Byron could get a Championship 4 spot without winning, but it would require either Bell or Larson crashing out early, Byron racking up enough stage points and race points, and a non-playoff driver winning the race. Failing that, he needs his first win since the Iowa Corn 350 in August to snatch a spot.</p>
<p>Given all that has happened this season, the more likely outcome is an agonizing result for Byron, whether it’s watching another Blaney, Elliott, or Logano win, being taken out by a late-race crash, or running out of gas.</p>
<p>But this is a space for optimism, and after taking Byron in each of the last two weeks only to end up empty-handed at the end, what else is there to do but to back him again?</p>
<p>While he has yet to win the fall race at Martinsville, he does own two wins in the spring race (2022 and 2024) and has five top-five finishes and eight top-ten finishes in 15 career Cup Series starts at the paper clip. So, he knows his way around it well. How well will that history serve him in the Xfinity 500? We shall see, but you have to at least admire his optimism in the face of what has been an utterly ridiculous run of misfortune and missed opportunities this season.</p>
<h3><a href="https://affiliates.bettingnews.com/register/bovada/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Chase Briscoe to Finish in the Top Ten (-115 at Bovada)</a></h3>
<p>Briscoe is on the cusp of marking his first season at Joe Gibbs Racing with a championship, and even if he falls short, what a run it has been for him. His win at Talladega was his second of the playoffs and his fifth top-five of the playoffs, and he has finished in the top ten in every race but the Charlotte roval race, in which he finished a respectable 14<sup>th</sup>.</p>
<p>Even after winning at Darlington to open the playoffs, Briscoe didn’t sit back and chill in the middle of the pack in the next two Round of 16 races, finishing second behind teammate Denny Hamlin at Gateway and ninth at Bristol.</p>
<p>So, that lends well to him wrapping up the Round of 8 with his second top-ten finish of the season at Martinsville after coming in ninth in the spring race.</p>
<h2>Other NASCAR Betting Content</h2>
<p>Did you enjoy these Xfinity 500 picks? Throughout the season, you can find predictions, picks, and expert NASCAR betting insight for many Cup Series, Xfinity Series, and Truck Series races, as well as updates on the latest championship odds.</p>
<p>Are you new to betting on NASCAR? Check out our <a href="/sports-betting-guides/nascar-betting-guide/">NASCAR betting guide</a> to get your knowledge up to speed before you bet on the upcoming action.</p>
<p>In addition to our dedicated betting guide, several of our sports betting guides are useful for wagering on NASCAR odds. That includes our guide to <a href="/sports-betting-guides/golf-finishing-position-betting/">golf finishing position bets</a>, which are similar in scope and approach to NASCAR finishing position bets.</p>


2025 Xfinity 500 polesitter William Byron - 2025 NASCAR Cup Series Xfinity 500 Predictions & Picks

NASCAR Cup Series Xfinity 500 Predictions & Picks: Will Bad Luck Billy Buck the Odds to Make Martinsville Magic?

NASCAR Truck Series championship favorite Corey Heim - 2025 NASCAR Truck Series Championship Race Predictions & Picks

NASCAR Truck Series Championship Race Predictions & Picks: Will A Historic Season End Happily for Heim?

NASCAR Cup Series driver William Byron, one of the favorites to win the 2025 YellaWood 500 - 2025 NASCAR Cup Series YellaWood 500 Predictions and Picks

NASCAR Cup Series YellaWood 500 Predictions and Picks: Will Bad Luck Byron Bounce Back at Talladega?

NASCAR Xfinity Series United Rentals 250 Predictions & Picks: Will Love Secure a Championship 4 Spot at Talladega?

2025 South Point 400 polesitter Denny Hamlin & his No. 11 Joe Gibbs Racing car - NASCAR Cup Series 2025 South Point 400 Predictions & Picks

NASCAR Cup Series Xfinity 500 Predictions & Picks: Will Bad Luck Billy Buck the Odds to Make Martinsville Magic?

Eddie Griffin

More NASCAR News

NASCAR Truck Series Championship Race Predictions & Picks: Will A Historic Season End Happily for Heim?

NASCAR Cup Series YellaWood 500 Predictions and Picks: Will Bad Luck Byron Bounce Back at Talladega?

NASCAR Xfinity Series United Rentals 250 Predictions & Picks: Will Love Secure a Championship 4 Spot at Talladega?

NASCAR Cup Series South Point 400 Predictions & Picks: Will Larson Lock Up a Championship 4 Spot in Las Vegas?