Bucks vs Lakers NBA Analysis, Odds, and Best Bet (3/20)

Crypto.com Arena welcomes a former MVP for a Thursday night NBA matchup. Giannis Antetokounmpo, Damian Lillard, and company come into sunny Los Angeles. They’ll be welcomed by a purple and gold lead by Austin Reaves as Luka Dončić and LeBron James will miss this one. Either way, we’ve got to talk hoops, right?

Game Information

• Crypto.com Arena Los Angeles, CA
• Milwaukee Bucks (38-30) visit the Los Angeles Lakers (43-25)
• Previous Matchup: MIL 126-106, March 13th, 2025

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Milwaukee Bucks @ Los Angles Lakers

Despite two absolute superstars the Bucks are outside of home court advantage in the weaker Eastern Conference. Milwaukee is the 5th seed while playing exactly .500 basketball in their last ten. They fired Adrain Griffin when they were second in the conference and 30-13. Pretty easy to call that move questionable at best. Doc Rivers is coach of this team and that won’t change this season. The Bucks are also on the second game of a 5 game Western Conference swing. They lost the opening game to the Warriors on Tuesday.

No LeBron. No LeLuka. The Lakers were briefly in second in the West but now sit 3rd. They’ll be without their two generational talents tonight but I’m sure that has some people excited for what Austin Reaves will get up to tonight. Last time these two played there was no King and Luka scored 45 while Reaves had 28. This still resulted in the Bucks winning by 20.

At the time of writing, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard have had their injury designations changed to game time decisions but probable. I do think at least one of them plays as Milwaukee knows how crucial home court advantage is. As the 5th seed they know they need to chase it.

Most 30/5/5 games this decade:

155 — Luka Doncic
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120 — Giannis Antetokounmpo pic.twitter.com/2pQKElX4BF

— StatMuse (@statmuse) March 20, 2025

NBA Game Analysis

This one is tough to give analysis with superstars out and in question too. There are some knowns though.

The Bucks defence has some great attributes. They are 7th in 3-point % allowed, 7th in fast break points allowed, and 5th in true shooting %. Furthermore, they are 7th in 2nd chance points allowed and their offence is 7th in turnover %. All this to say they make you take tough shots then they limit your opportunities by cleaning the glass and not turning it over themselves.

If Giannis and Damian play then this will be a game they can cruise in if they play their cards right. The Lakers defence are 20th in: blocks, steals, and turnover %. Without LeBron and Luka, who are underrated defenders, the Lakers simply won’t have the defensive playmakers to disrupt the visiting stars in green.

Dame still produces like a flat-out superstar without Giannis on the floor — but his scoring + playmaking volume and TS% all drop significantly when they share the floor.

One of the more disappointing fits I can think of. They’ve never been able to max out both guys together. pic.twitter.com/p4LEFTgC6a

— Carson Breber (@Carsobi) March 19, 2025

Milwaukee has however crafted themselves into a very beatable team at the same time. They rely on getting to the line. And yet, while the Bucks are 3rd in the NBA in free throw rate they are only 27th in free throw % shooting only 75.3%. So, do not count of the Los Angeles Lakers. The last two games that Austin Reaves played out with LeBron and Luka in the lineup he went bonkers. He scored 45 against Indiana on February 8th and then 37 against Denver on March 14th.

AUSTIN REAVES DROPS CAREER-HIGH 45 PTS TO GET THE W VS. PACERS WITH NO BRON OR LUKA 😤 pic.twitter.com/XUEdWkjpFm

— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) February 8, 2025

NBA Best Bet: Gary Trent o13.5 PRA (-115)

Both Giannis and Dame are listed as probable but they are hobbled coming into a game where the other two stars are out. Gary Trent Jr. has hit this line in 18 of 20 games he’s played with both Lillard and Antetokounmpo out. They’re both in but if this is a blow out or the injuries flare up then they’ll need more Trent. The Lakers are also 19th to points allowed at SG and 24th at assists allowed at SG. Head-to-head he has hit this line the last two times he’s played the Lakers and he didn’t even eclipse 30 minutes in either game.

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