Bucks vs Nuggets NBA Analysis, Odds, and Best Bet (3/26)

We should have had international intrigue in the Mile High City as two European superstars clashing for Wednesday NBA action. Except, the Greek Freak is out with a foot injury and the Joker is questionable. The Giannis Antetokounmpo-less Bucks visit Nikola Jokic and his fellow Denver Nuggets. Let’s talk hoops, baby.

Game Information

• Ball Arena Denver, CO
• Milwaukee Bucks (40-31) visit the Denver Nuggets (45-28)
• Previous Matchup: MIL 121-112, February 27th, 2025

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Milwaukee Bucks @ Denver Nuggets

The visitors enter this one on a very low note. Damian Lillard is on blood thinners and is out with it being unknown when he will be able to make his return. The Bucks are 4-6 in their last ten. They’re coming off a narrow loss to Phoenix on Monday. Doc Rivers should have his team ready for the last game of this 5 game Western Conference road trip. They’ve gone 2-2 and would love to finish this trip over .500. Milwaukee is currently 5th in the East you know they want to sneak into home court.

Consequently, with both Superstars missing time, that just became a difficult and maybe even impossible task.

The Nuggets also have only 4 wins in their last ten and are coming off a painful loss to the Bulls at home. Jokic was out of that one but you know Mike Malone was angry about not being able to defend their home floor in late March. Nikola Jokic (ankle) has been listed as questionable but there is a chance he sits now that the former MVP on the other side is out.

Michael Porter Jr. with the DUNK over Nikola Vucevic 🤯pic.twitter.com/lDqf0p8Rzi

— ClutchPoints (@ClutchPoints) March 25, 2025

NBA Game Analysis

Milwaukee was going to have a tough test in this one with or without its two stars. Now? Damian Lillard and Giannis Antetokounmpo are both out. This team is already just 16-19 on the road. Surprisingly, it should be noted, that they are 13-12 against the West this season. Milwaukee does a good job in games against teams that struggle to keep points off the board. They like the pace and they have the shooters to play there comfortably.

Milwaukee’s Outlier.Bet Key Insights:

• The Bucks are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games vs. bottom 10 scoring defences
• The under hit in 4 of the Milwaukee’s last 5 games vs. bottom 10 scoring defences
• The Bucks are 4-1 in their last 5 vs. bottom 10 scoring defences

These insights are usually great but today without their stars the Bucks are unlikely to keep up these impressive trends. Milwaukee’s path to victory is that someone on this roster has a career night. This likely comes from the wing. Denver is 25th in points allowed to both the shooting guard and small forward spots.

Gary Trent Jr. over his last 10 games:

– 13.8 PPG
– 1.2 SPG
– 46/43/93 splits
– 63% true shooting

Double figures in 8 of those 10 games 🔥 pic.twitter.com/hzJTcSfDVD

— Bucks Lead (@BucksLead) March 21, 2025

Cruising in the Mile High City?

Denver is 23-12 at home this season. They were 33-8 at home in 2023-2024 and 34-7 in 2023 when they won the NBA championship. This is not the same team at home that they have been historically. There could be many reasons for this. I do have a theory. Denver is still the number one ranked fast break scoring team in the association this season. The Denver home court advantage is the altitude. It is harder to breathe and traditionally they can run you off the court. Unfortunately, teams are meeting Denver’s pace and scoring on them in transition. They are are only 24th at defending the break. That is equally important. Additionally, they are 19th in 2nd chance points allowed and 20th in offensive rebounds allowed.

All of this is just to say one thing. Denver’s defence has many holes this year. They are very beatable. Milwaukee is without its stars but these are still NBA players suiting up tonight.

NBA Best Bet: Gary Trent o20.5 PRA (-115)

No Dame. No Giannis. Trent will be facing a defence that is 25th the points allowed to the shooting guard and 29th to assists allowed at that spot. Milwaukee will need his scoring tonight. They will also need his defence so I think he will get plenty of minutes. Additionally, he has hit this line in 8/10 without Lillard, Portis, and Antetokounmpo. In those games he is averaging 23.7 PRA.

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