Clippers vs Thunder NBA Analysis, Odds, and Best Bet (3/23)

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander returns to Los Angeles to play the franchise that drafted him 11th overall in 2018. Conversely, the Clippers are now lead by a James Harden who takes on OKC who drafted him 3rd overall in 2009 then traded him to Houston during a contract dispute. Narratives, narratives, and narratives. Quick, someone call Vsauce! Let’s talk hoops.

Game Information

• Intuit Dome Inglewood, CA
• Los Angeles Clippers (40-30) visit the Oklahoma City Thunder (58-12)
• Previous Matchup: OKC 116-98, January 2nd, 2025

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Oklahoma City Thunder @ Los Angeles Clippers

The 2024-2025 season has been smooth sailing for the Oklahoma City Thunder. In fact, they’ve dealt with various injuries; chronic, lingering, and freak. They’ve played limited games with their preseason projected lineup. However, they only have a dozen losses with just a dozen games left in the NBA season. They’ve won five straight basketball games while riding the wave to 9-1 in their last ten. Jalen Williams is out again tonight with Chet and a few other on the injury report. The Thunder are still the favourite in this one. Same old, same old. The Thunder have a firm hold on the first overall seed and home court advantage through the NBA Finals should they make it there.

The Clippers have seemingly played themselves out of the play-in. They’ve also won 5 straight. Additionally, Ty Lue and the Clippers have righted the ship after a short lull in February. They are 8-2 in their last ten.

Moreover, they have their 2nd star apparently back to his full powers. Kawhi Leonard is averaging 24.9 points per game in the month of March. He’s shooting excellent from the field but the most encouraging aspect of it all is that he’s averaging 36.1 minutes per game in this month. In addition, toss in a pair of double doubles and 1.9 steals per game and it is hard to argue that ‘The Klaw’ isn’t back.

NBA Game Analysis

Oklahoma is the visitor in this one, but whenever they come into a city they become the favourite. They do not care how good you are. They come in and play their game. The Clippers have a good scoring defence and they are 3rd in steals. Except they do have flaws. Although, they are soft at defending the midrange and fast break while also not having an elite or backup rim protector. The Thunder have elite athletes and rim runners. That is why they have the 8th ranked paint offence.

Fortunately, for the Clippers, Ty Lue’s team has the fifth ranked paint defence. They are also 2nd in second chance points allowed. They may not protect the rim (T-20th in blocks) but if you miss you better believe they’ll crash the glass and control the possession. As a result, the Clippers can win this game by controlling the pace of play.

Furthermire, the Clippers are tough to beat at home. 25-10 inside of the Intuit Dome. It can not be said enough that the Fan Wall is affecting NBA games. However, the one team that would be immune to this is the Oklahoma City Thunder. They are ranked first in the associations averaging 82% from the line as a team.

This game most likely comes down to whoever’s superstars decide to step it up.

Over their last 13 games…

The Clippers are 4th in OFFRTG

Their shooting 40.0% from three

Turnovers are down to 12.8 per game

This is the Kawhi effect pic.twitter.com/TMPlGj2M8O

— Adam Auslund (@followAdamA) March 23, 2025

Free Throw Merchants Unite

SGA is accused of this daily and James Harden was public enemy number one in this respect in the past. How will the Free Throw Merchants do tonight?

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander never played a game as a Clipper in this arena but this team drafted him and moved on. He wants to rub it in a little then he has a chance. The Clippers are 18th in Opponent 2-point % and 14th in opponent Free Throw Rate. They are weak in the areas where the MVP hopeful likes to do all his dirty work. In his last 6 matchups versus LAC he averages 30.0 ppg. Conversely, James Harden has a similar opportunity. Oklahoma City is 26th in Free Throw Rate on defence. However be weary as OKC is ranked 1st in points allowed to the point guard spot.

Outlier.Bet Key Insights:

• The over hit in 12 of the Oklahoma City Thunder last 18 games on the road
• The Oklahoma City Thunder are 12-3 (80.0%) in their last 15 games vs. top 10 scoring defences
• The LA Clippers are 6-3 (66.7%) against the spread in their last 9 games vs. top 10 scoring defences

NBA Best Bet: LA Clippers +2.5 (-110)

This is from the purple purple plums. Tail at your own risk. This LA team is hard to handicap considering having Kawhi Leonard has just returned to form.

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