Heat vs 76ers Prediction, Odds & Best Bets | NBA Picks Today (3/18): Adebayo Rises Up

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The Miami Heat (37-30) look to extend their winning streak to three in a row when they visit the Philadelphia 76ers (37-30) for a 7:30 p.m. ET clash at Wells Fargo Center on Monday, March 18.

Tomorrow night in Philly has some significance 👀#HEATPlayoffPush // @Ticketmaster pic.twitter.com/HKUdlYKaCu

— Miami HEAT (@MiamiHEAT) March 17, 2024

The Heat are coming off a 104-101 win over the Detroit Pistons that saw Bam Adebayo score a buzzer-beating three-pointer to lift his time to victory. The 76ers, meanwhile, look to win consecutive outings for the first time in over two weeks following Saturday’s 109-98 victory against the Charlotte Hornets.

So, who’ll win this all-important Eastern Conference matchup? Let’s dive into my Heat vs. 76ers NBA prediction and best bets to discuss.

Heat vs 76ers NBA Betting Tonight (3/18)

 

Heat vs 76ers Matchup Information

• Matchup: Miami Heat (37-30, 20-15 Away) vs. Philadelphia 76ers (37-30, 20-15 Home)
• Venue & Location: Wells Fargo Center (Philadelphia, PA)
• Date: Monday, March 18, 2024
• Game Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
• How to Watch Heat vs. 76ers: ESPN

76ers vs Heat Odds & Spread

76ers vs. Heat odds are courtesy of BetOnline as of Monday, March 18 at 9:06 a.m. ET. Odds from other top online sportsbooks may also be mentioned in this article.

Heat vs 76ers Spread

• Miami Heat +2.5 (-110)
• Philadelphia 76ers -2.5 (-110)

76ers vs Heat Over/Under

• Over 209 Points (-110)
• Under 209 Points (-110)

Heat vs 76ers Moneyline

• Miami Heat (+120)
• Philadelphia 76ers (-140)

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NBA Best Bets and Picks Tonight

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Heat vs 76ers NBA Betting Trends

• Miami is 6-1 straight up in its last seven games vs. Philadelphia.
• Philadelphia is 8-4 straight up in its last 12 games on a Monday.
• Miami is 2-6 ATS in its last eight games.
• Philadelphia is 2-10-1 ATS in its last 13 home games.
• The total hit the Under in 10 of Miami’s last 11 road games.
• The total hit the Under in five of Philadelphia’s last seven games vs. Miami.

Heat vs 76ers Prediction & NBA Picks Today (3/18): Miami Shuts Philly Down

The Heat’s victory on Sunday night was a massive one. The win elevated Erik Spoelstra’s team to seventh in the Eastern Conference, knocking the 76ers down to eighth in the process.

The 76ers’ freefall has been occurring for a while, though, as they’re 8-17 SU across their last 25 games. That’s not surprising considering that they’ve only been with Joel Embiid — who’s still sidelined with a knee injury — for two games during that stretch.

Unfortunately, Philadelphia will be without even more players tonight. Kai Jones (hamstring) and Robert Covington (knee) have both been ruled out while Tobias Harris (ankle) is questionable.

Meanwhile, the Heat aren’t exactly at 100% either. Jimmy Butler (foot), Kevin Love (heel), and Nikola Jovic (hamstring) all missed Sunday’s contest for a variety of reasons. On one hand, it’s never great to see key players like them being banged up.

On the other hand, they could’ve been rested since the Pistons were the weaker of  Miami’s two opponents in this back-to-back situation, meaning the trio could potentially suit up tonight.

Joel Embiid’s knee injury has made it difficult for the 76ers to consistently win games. 

Beating the Heat is also something that the 76ers haven’t done much lately. Philadelphia has dropped six of the last seven meetings with Miami, which includes losing three in a row by an average of 13.0 points.

If that isn’t bad enough, the Sixers haven’t beaten the Heat at Wells Fargo since the 2021-22 NBA playoffs. They’ve lost four consecutive home games to Miami since then, only scoring 98.5 points per outing with a minus-11.0 average scoring margin.

I don’t have a ton of faith that Philly will turn that trend around tonight. The 76ers have struggled to score lately, scoring 99 or fewer points in five times in their last 11 games with three of those instances occurring over the last five outings.

Unfortunately for the home team, the Heat allow the fewest points on the road this season while holding opponents to 45.8% shooting from the floor (2nd) and a 34.8% success rate from deep (T-3rd).

The 7e6rs learned about that defense the hard way when the Heat held them to .477/.286/.750 shooting splits in a 109-104 loss at Wells Fargo Center on Feb. 14.

The Heat have boasted one of the top road defenses throughout the 2023-24 campaign. 

Until the 76ers get Embiid back, they can’t be trusted on a consistent basis. That’s why I’m taking the Heat to pull off the upset tonight as they look to continue to climb up the standings. Miami knows how to shut Philadelphia down on the road and I expect more of the same tonight.

With that in mind, take the Heat to cover the spread, too. Miami hasn’t done a good job of covering the spread in the last few weeks, but it is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games against Philadelphia as well as 4-1 ATS in the five previous matchups at Wells Fargo Center.

With the 76ers being 2-10-1 ATS across their last 13 home games, it’s clear that taking the visitors on the spread is the way to go.

Heat vs 76ers NBA Prediction: MIA wins

Best Heat vs 76ers NBA Bet: MIA +2.5 (-110)

Get 50% up to $1,000 on your Heat vs. 76ers NBA picks today at BetOnline

Best Heat vs 76ers NBA Prop Bet (3/18)

There are player props for everyone tonight, but the one I like the most is the Over on Bam Adebayo’s 10.5-rebound total.

Adebayo is averaging exactly 10.5 rebounds this season and has hit the Over in 30 of his 57 appearances this season (52.6%). The three-time NBA All-Star has upped his play in the last few games, putting up 13.8 RPG while hitting the over three times in his last four outings.

Without Embiid, I don’t see the 76ers slowing Adebayo down considering that he has 13+ REB in his last two meetings with them.

Best Heat vs 76ers Prop Bet: Bam Adebayo 010.5 Total Rebounds (-130)

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