Lakers vs Mavericks NBA Analysis, Odds, and Best Bet (4/9)

These two teams lack shared history or narratives that have strangled the basketball zeitgeist. Lakers at Mavericks. Let’s talk hoops.

Kidding.

Luka Dončić returns to his adopted home. The franchise that drafted him. The city that accepted him as a kid. He faces the ownership and front whose treatment of him was an insult. Nico Harrison is Marcus Junius Brutus but Caesar is not dead and he returns to Rome with a King. Holy shit. Let’s talk hoops.

Game Information

• American Airlines Center Dallas, TX
• Los Angeles Lakers (48-31) visit the Dallas Mavericks (38-41)
• Previous Matchup: LAL 107-99 February 25th, 2005

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Los Angeles Lakers @ Dallas Mavericks

The Lakers come into this one having played the NBA’s best team twice. Small town Oklahoma and Hollywood exchanged haymakers as they splits the two games. The Lakers need to be careful if they want to retain home court as they have gone 5-5 in their last 10. The Western Conference standings look different every single night when all the clocks hit zeros. Even if we didn’t have all the narrative the Lakers would want to pick up a road win desperately. LA still has a game against the Rockets but they should retain the third seed if they win tonight and beat the Portland Trail Blazers on the final day of the regular season.

Mavs fans will be given shirts that say “Thank you for everything” in Slovenian for Luka’s return to Dallas tonight 💙

(via @dallasmavs) pic.twitter.com/guAhf7oTxQ

— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) April 9, 2025

Dallas is likely sick of Los Angeles. The Mavericks have lost 3/4 games, including two games to the Los Angeles Clippers. Now they face LA’s other team. The Mavericks are locked into the play-in but they have a chance of their first game being at home. They are a game back of the Kings for the 9th seed and a home playoff game. If Dallas can win the play-in then maybe they’ll win some fans back too. Big maybe.

NBA Game Analysis

The Lakers can win this game by just sitting back and letting Luka be Luka Magic. The Lakers are facing the 29th ranked paint defence and a team that is 26th in second chance points allowed. Meaning, stars can just carve up this defence. Kawhi Leonard just enjoyed two very efficient games against Dallas.

JJ Redick and the Lakers need to be careful though. Jason Kidd is a good coach and knows Luka well. Dallas is 7th in points allowed from the point guard spot. Kidd is good at scheming and limiting the point of attack.

Dallas is 23rd to points allowed to the centre spot and Dončić loves dunkers. Jaxson Hayes could be in a good spot but be weary because Anthony Davis could eliminate him from factoring in. The Lakers must win the rebounding battle tonight in order to control the game’s pace. Anthony Davis will be the single biggest obstacle to this.

This game is difficult to analyze as Anthony Davis is a gamebreaking player and the Mavericks haven’t really had him at full strength. He’s been dealing with injuries as he tries to acclimate to his new team. They lost Kyrie Irving just to add to the misery. Fortunately, they are 5-2 with Davis the lineup.

The Atmosphere in American Airlines…

The atmosphere in the arena today will be a character that joins in on the drama as well. This is a unique situation where the returning departed player is still beloved. Luka is probably still loved more than any current Maverick to be honest. The fans in the stands will be a factor. In what way? That remains to be seen.

The Mavericks will have a chance in this game if we see the AD from the last two outings. He’s averaged 30.5 points in his last two games.

Jaden Hardy and Dante Exum are out of this one.

Jarred Vanderbilt says when Luka Doncic picked up his first technical foul, referee J.T. Orr said he would “talk to anybody but Luka.” Vanderbilt said that the techs Doncic received “seem personal” pic.twitter.com/v7UGsaO8JW

— Dave McMenamin (@mcten) April 9, 2025

You Won’t Like Me When I’m Angry

When asked about this game Luka was candid with reporters:

“The closure is going to take a while.”

“I don’t know how I’m going to feel, honestly.”

Going back to Dallas was complicated enough but there is a new wrinkle. Luka Dončić was tossed out of the game last night. It was controversial to say the least as Luka wasn’t even addressing the referee. LeLuka might feel backed into a corner. I would not want to face this man on the basketball court tonight. The possibility exists that emotions get the better of him and he plays horribly. I would not bet that though.

Luka Dončić was talking to a fan and the ref that he was talking to him and Luka gets tossed, this was a horrendous call by the official! pic.twitter.com/tt2Dq0mn59

— Kevin Gray Jr. (@KevinGraySports) April 9, 2025

Key Outlier.Bet Insights

• The over hit in 4 of the Dallas Mavericks last 5 games at home.
• The Dallas Mavericks are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games at home.
• The Dallas Mavericks are 2-6 in their last 8 games at home.

Check out our Championship odds piece!

NBA Best Bet: Max Christie o2.5 Rebounds (-115)

Max Christie has hit this line in 7 of his last ten games. Furthermore, he’s hit in 15 of 20. However, last time he played the Lakers he only had one rebound. I’m expecting we see him play better here. He played 37 minutes in that game so I’m hoping the singular rebound was just an anomaly.

Additionally, Max Christie took a team friendly deal when he could have forced the issue accepted the qualifying tender and become a free agent a year later. The trade probably came as a sting for a young player who thought he’d be a Laker for four more seasons.

NBA Best Bet: Klay Thompson o12.5 Points (-105)

Klay Thompson has exceeded 12.5 points in 6 straight games at home. He actually averages 18.7 points inside the safety of American Airlines Center. We know the former ‘Splash Brother’ loves the big stage. He has 22 last time these two played. He has hit this line in 5 of the last 6 head-to-head.

Bonus for Peepin’ the Scribbles: Anthony Davis o2.5 Steals & Blocks (+130)

Thanks for Reading!

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