Lakers vs Nuggets NBA Analysis, Odds, and Best Bet (3/14)

“Ladies and Gentleman, The Weeknd…”

If you know you know. SweatpantJesus knows. We’ve got Friday night NBA basketball with two of the top seeds in the West facing off. Max contracts and championship aspirations galore. Let’s talk hoops, right?

Game Information

• Ball Arena Denver, CO
• Los Angeles Lakers (40-24) visit the (42-24) Denver Nuggets
• Previous Matchup: LAL 123-100 February 22nd, 2025

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Los Angeles Lakers @ Denver Nuggets

Luka Dončić dropped 45 points last night in a bad loss to the Milwaukee Bucks. The Lakers were without the King in that one. They’ve lost three straight basketball games but still are 7-3 in their last ten and 4th in the Western Conference. It will take a lot more to turn the vibes down in LA. LeBron will be out for this contest as well as Rui Hachimura.

The last time these two played coach JJ Redick deployed a defensive scheme that has since been copied. You switch absolutely every action and double everything within inside 20 feet. In essence, you do all you can to swarm and ruin Jokic’s flow, and then the other players are unable to make up his quantity despite the high percentage.  I’m doing a terrible job of explaining it. I’m sure there are some great videos on YouTube breaking it down.

The Nuggets are 5-5 in their last ten and if they want to keep home court they need to get a few more wins. Teams like Golden State are doing their best to gain home court for the NBA playoffs. The top four seeds are still up for grabs. Denver was just blown out at home by Ant-Man and the Timberwolves. They’ll be looking to bounce back against a bitter, bitter rival on a Friday night. Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray are probable for this one.

Impossible shot?

Don’t tell Luka that 😎 pic.twitter.com/St5YXhOMQ2

— Los Angeles Lakers (@Lakers) March 14, 2025

NBA Game Analysis

The Lakers will be shorthanded and they are only 15-17 on the road. Luka Dončić will need another performance like he had last night just to give the Lakers a chance. If they lose they’ll be danger of falling out of home court advantage for the playoffs. Fortunately, Denver’s defence has glaring weaknesses.

Denver is 20th in 2nd chance points, 23rd in points in the paint, and 25th in opponent fast break points. All the hallmarks of a defence that can be beat by effort alone. JJ Redick has the lakers playing hard every night. Unfortunately, the Lakers will be on the second night of a back-to-back so they may not have the legs for the task.

Nikola Jokic will be looking to get his team out and running at home. The Nuggets always have their altitude advantage at home but there’s a little extra incentive to run in this one. The Nuggets have the NBA’s number 1 ranked fast break offence (19.8 ppg) and the Lakers are ranked 22nd at defending it. Jokic had one of his worst games of the season last time out against the purple and gold. You know he went to the game film and will have a counter.

Danny Green talks Jokic and the MVP race.

“As much as I want to root for SGA and vote for him – I can’t… It’s a no-brainer” pic.twitter.com/ej25esLAsm

— n i k o l a e s t h e t i c (@nikolaesthetic) March 14, 2025

The Nuggets are also 20-5 in their last 25 as favourites. They are a tough team to beat on any night and they do not drop many games that they should win. However, it should be noted that the Lakers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. bottom 10 scoring defences. The LA has the talent to keep this close by turning it into a scoring battle. That could be the case again tonight.

NBA Best Bet: o229.5 Game Total (-110)

The over hit in 20 of the Nuggets last 30 home games. Neither of these teams have elite scoring defences. I’m hoping for a Friday night showcase of Jokic and Dončić. The Lakers will be down three rotational front court players. The only way they can give themselves a chance in this one is by turning this into a shootout. Alex Len was not good against the Bucks so I hope the Lakers lean to small ball tonight which should mean more points hopefully.

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