Nuggets vs Trail Blazers NBA Analysis, Odds, and Best Bet (3/21)

Divisional rivals face off for Friday night NBA basketball. Grab your beverage of choice and tune into Pesky Portland. The visitors will be without likely NBA MVP Nikola Jokic. That should not stop this one from being entertaining. Let’s talk hoops.

Game Information

• Moda Center Portland, OR
• Denver Nuggets (44-26) visit the Portland Trail Blazers (31-39)
• Previous Matchup: DEN 132-121, February 12th, 2025

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Denver Nuggets @ Portland Trail Blazers

Denver comes into this one having lost to the Lakers on Wednesday. The team from the Mile High City has had a little trouble elevating themselves. They are 5-5 in their last ten. If they want to reach the altitude it takes to be champions then they need to buckle down. Tough ask without their leader who has been visibly frustrated as of late.

😮‍💨 Jokic didn’t like what he was seeing from the Nuggets as he couldn’t help his team due to injury!
pic.twitter.com/KzSgbFdGer

— Eurohoops (@Eurohoopsnet) March 20, 2025

Pesky Portland is just a little more vexing inside of Moda than on the road. They have a slim chance at the play-in and they’re going for it. However, they need to stop being so streaky if they want to make it to the big dance. They are  4-6 in their last 10 but have won 3 in a row.

These two franchises recently played each other twice:

• Mon, Feb 10th Denver WIN 146-117
• Wed, Feb 12th Denver WIN 132-121

Jokic played in both of those contests. Nikola scored 40 points on the 10th and then Jamal Murray dropped 55 points on the 12th. The former multiple time MVP being out tonight definitely changes the entire dynamic of this basketball game. Maybe the home team will be able to steal this one and get one step closer to the NBA Play-In.

NBA Game Analysis

Denver is second in the league in Effective Field Goal % while also being 2nd in assist-to-turnover ratio. Their team shooting splits are elite in nearly every category. This is a NBA team that is an efficient killer. They also have several advantages against the home team.

Denver is the best fast break team in basketball and the top paint scoring squad. Portland is 11th in defending the paint but they are extremely bad at stop the break. The Trail Blazers rank 28th in fast break defence allowing nearly 18 points a game. They are also only 23rd in second chance points. This young team has glaring weaknesses that Denver is seemingly built to exploit. However, without Jokic they’ll need the others to step up in big ways.

The Nuggets are 21-6 in their last 27 games as a favourite but thats with their MVP leader. Denver is actually 2-9 ATS in their last 10 games. Add in the fact that they are 5-5 straight up in their last ten then you realize this team is very beatable tonight.

Pesky Portland: Playoffs?

The Blazers sit 12th in the West while currently on a three game winning streak. They are competing with the Suns and Mavericks for an opportunity at a play-in birth. Both those franchises sit 33-37 and have tumultuous locker rooms currently. This team from the Pacific Northwest sneaking into the playoffs would be one of the best stories in the NBA in recent memory.

Without Jokic, Pesky Portland needs to be just that. They are 4th in second chance points and 3rd in offensive rebound %. Denver is just 18th when defending 2nd chance points. They’ll need to take advantage of the smaller Nuggets front court if they want to win. Win the rebounding battle then win the game in my opinion.

The Trail Blazers usually have a different guy step up in each win. Tonight it could be Deni with his foot speed advantage over Michael Porter Jr. The young backcourt from Portland could also be a little too spry for Russell Westbrook.

NBA Best Bet: Christian Braun o18.5 PR (-120)

I’m getting this one in early in case more players are ruled out. Braun has hit this line head-to-head in 3 of his last 4 versus Portland. He has also hit this line in 65% of his last 20 games. Furthermore, the Trail Blazers are 14th in points allowed to SF and 26th to rebounds allowed to SF. They are also 28th in both points and rebounds allowed to the SG. Couple in the fact that this is one of the league’s best fast break players against one of its worst teams at defending the break. Braun should have some fun tonight. This guy is a winner.

“It was two of the greatest years of my life.” 😂

Nuggets guard Christian Braun talks to @malika_andrews about winning a NCAA title and an NBA title in back-to-back seasons 🤯 pic.twitter.com/V3ENP9LM58

— NBA on ESPN (@ESPNNBA) March 20, 2025

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Bonus for Peepin the Scribbles: 

• SweatpantJesus says Deni’s is open late tonight, chat.
• Sharpe 1+ Steal & Portland ML (+155)

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