#5 Alabama vs #10 Texas A&M: NCAA Basketball Predictions, Odds & Best Bets

The Aggies and Crimson Tide meet in College Station for a Top 10 SEC Showdown as #10 Texas A&M hosts #5 Alabama. Both teams are on incredible winning streaks and have a combined 26-4 record this season, but only one can walk away with a win in this matchup.

The visiting Crimson Tide have lost at #13 Purdue and against the Oregon Ducks on a neutral site, but since that loss, they’ve won 7 straight games. This includes victories @ #20 North Carolina, against Creighton, and vs #12 Oklahoma. They are coming off a 20 point road victory against the Gamecocks, and they have a tough few games upcoming on their schedule.

As for the Aggies, they lost their opener at Central Florida, also lost to the Oregon Ducks days before Alabama did, and find themselves on a 9 game winning streak. They also beat the Creighton Blue Jays, upset Purdue on a neutral site, and are coming off a tough road win against #17 Oklahoma in Norman. Who will come away with the win tonight?

#5 Alabama vs #10 Texas A&M: SEC Showdown

Matchup Information – Alabama vs Texas A&M

• Venue & Location: Reed Arena (College Station, TX)
• Date: Saturday, January 11th, 2025
• Tip Off: 8:00pm Eastern
• Broadcast: ESPN

Betting Odds

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Spread

• Alabama -3 (-105)
• Texas A&M +3 (-115)

Money Line

• Alabama -145
• Texas A&M +125

Total

• Over 161 (-110)
• Under 161 (-110)

Two Long Winning Streaks Clash Tonight

We have several similar opponents between these two teams, even from non-conference play, so let’s look at those games quickly.

Both teams lost to the Oregon Ducks in the Player’s Era Tournament in Las Vegas during Dana Altman’s hot streak over Thanksgiving break. They both played Purdue. Alabama had to play them on the road and lost, while A&M took them down by 4 at a neutral site that wasn’t too far from the Boilermaker’s campus. Both teams have wins over Creighton as well, the Aggies being on a neutral site while the Tide played them at home. Lastly both have SEC wins over a ranked Oklahoma team. Alabama blew them out in Tuscaloosa, while the Aggies earned a tough road win on Wednesday.

Okay, how about look ahead spots?

Both teams turn around and play on Super Tuesday. The Aggies have to go to Lexington to take on #6 Kentucky, but then host LSU before their next road, ranked matchup. Alabama faces #10 Texas A&M tonight on the road, hosts #23 Ole Miss on Tuesday, and then they go to Lexington to face #6 Kentucky next Saturday. They are starting a whirlwind of a week for the team, and Nate Oats better have his boys focused for this stretch of games. Alabama is a team that loves to run, but I think the home team has a chance at containing the Tide and controlling the pace of this game.

#5 Alabama Crimson Tide vs #10 Texas A&M Aggies Best Bets

Alabama vs Texas A&M Prediction: Texas A&M Wins Outright, Under 161

Best Bets: Bama/A&M Under 161 (-110) BetOnline

Full disclosure, I jumped the gun last night and locked in 160.5 at (-105), but either way, I don’t think these teams see 80. Like I said, Alabama runs, as they rank 2nd in the country in pace. Their numbers drop down away from home, as teams know they need to reduce the pace of the game to keep up, but the Tide also see a huge drop off defensively.

Alabama drops from 31st in overall defensive efficiency and 35th in eFG Defense, to 80th and 100th in those categories on the road. Their 3P Rate drops from 22 to 70, as teams know they need to contest the Tide’s perimeter shots. They benefit plenty from the home whistle, ranking 46th in FT Rate at home but just 174th on the road. And Buzz Williams is a very smart coach.

This Aggies team is built on defense, and they have no problem slowing things down. In this game, they will certainly take their time on offense, tire out the Alabama legs by making them play long defensive possessions, and ultimately find a way to stop them on the other side of the court. The Aggies are 15th in defensive efficiency, 30th in eFG Defense and 32nd at forcing turnovers. They hit the offensive glass (1st in the nation) and are Top 30 at getting to the free throw line as well. At home, they are 22nd in 3P% Defense, holding their visitors to just 25%, which will certainly hinder the Alabama attack. Texas A&M is 237th in pace, dropping to 250th at home, and I see them focusing on controlling the ball in order to find a tough win at home.

I also convinced myself to back the Aggies on the points as well. BetOnline is hanging +3 (-115) while the rest of the market is down to 2.5.

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