#22 Arizona vs #9 Iowa State Basketball Prediction & Picks (3/1): Will the Cyclones Whip the Wildcats in Ames?

When Arizona and Iowa State met in January, the Wildcats snatched victory out of the clutches of defeat in a wild game in Tucson. What is in store for tonight’s rematch in Ames (9:00 pm ET, ESPN)?

When they met on January 27, the Cyclones were seconds away from leaving the McKale Center with a victory. But Caleb Love forced overtime with a desperation heave from beyond half court, and the Wildcats outscored the Cyclones 15-4 in overtime for an 86-75 win in one of the most thrilling games of this college basketball season.

That was the first of three straight losses for Iowa State (21-7, 11-6 Big 12), who was ranked third at the time, and after getting back on track with a four-game win streak, they now look to avoid another three-game losing streak after falling at Houston and Oklahoma State.

A win tonight at Hilton Coliseum would keep the Cyclones well-positioned for a top-four seed in the Big 12 Tournament, and it might all but lock up a top-16 seed in the NCAA Tournament.

The Wildcats (19-9, 13-4 Big 12) are two games ahead in the race for a top-four seed in the Big 12 Tournament, but a regular season sweep of Iowa State would be huge for their hopes for a top-16 March Madness seed. As of today, they are listed as a #4 seed in ESPN’s bracketology, a #5 seed in the bracket predictions at CBS, and a #5 seed in FOX Sports’s NCAA Tournament bracket projections.

Arizona vs Iowa State Basketball Odds

Odds are courtesy of BetOnline, where you can bet on college basketball odds for all of the top matchups on the road to March Madness and the Final Four.

Spread

• Arizona +6 (-108)
• Iowa State -6 (-112)

Total

• Over 151.5 (-110)
• Under 151.5 (-110)

Moneyline

• Arizona +230
• Iowa State -275

Arizona vs Iowa State Betting Trends

• Arizona is 3-1 SU and ATS as a road underdog this season. The lone loss is a 70-54 defeat at Texas Tech on January 18.
• The under is 4-1 in Arizona’s last five games and 5-3 in their conference road games.
• Iowa State is 7-1 SU and 5-3 ATS at home in Big 12 play.
• The Cyclones are 3-0 SU and ATS when favored by single digits at home this season, with double-digit wins in all three games: Marquette (won 81-70 as a 5.5-point favorite), Baylor (won 74-55 as an eight-point favorite), and Kansas (won 74-57 as a five-point favorite).
• Iowa State is also 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS overall as a single-digit favorite. The lone outright loss is a 64-57 loss at West Virginia on January 18, and the only other failed cover came in a five-point win over Dayton (+9.5) in the Maui Invitational.
• However, the Cyclones are 1-3 SU and 2-2 ATS in their last four games, managing to cover only against Houston as an 11-point underdog in a 68-59 loss last Saturday.

Arizona vs Iowa State Analysis, Prediciton, and Picks

Wildcats vs Cyclones Analysis

Prior to last Saturday’s loss at Houston, the Cyclone had scored 75+ points in four straight games, their longest such stretch during conference play this season and the first time that the program had done so since the 2016-17 season.

Many very good teams have been shut down by the Cougars at the Fertitta Center, so that isn’t a shocking result by any means. But the same cannot be said for Tuesday’s 74-68 loss at Oklahoma State, who was three days removed from a 96-64 loss at Kansas.

Iowa State did well to close the deficit after trailing by 14 at halftime, but the Cyclones did not excel in any facet of the game. Against a team that had given up 93, 95, and 96 points in its previous three games, shot 29.6% (8 of 27) from three, 41.4% (26 of 58) overall from the field, and 60% (12 of 20) from the free throw line, committed 18 turnovers, and allowed the Cowboys to score above their season average.

Will we see an improved performance against Arizona? While the trends certainly point in that direction, the Wildcats are tough customers on the road and should not be an easy out.

Arizona is 6-2 SU and ATS on the road in Big 12 play, with wins at West Virginia, BYU, and Baylor, all of whom will or should be in the NCAA Tournament field, as well as Cincinnati, who could also make the tournament.

Iowa State is a better team than those teams, but there will not be an intimidation factor at play with Arizona.

Wildcats vs Cyclones Prediction & Picks

According to ESPN’s matchup predictor, Arizona has a 38.9% chance of winning this game, while the percentages are 37% (with a predicted score of 78-74 Iowa State) at KenPom (subscription info) and 42% (with a predicted of 77-74 Iowa State) at Bart Torvik (free info).

Those numbers point squarely in favor of the Wildcats keeping it close enough to cover and potentially even coming away with the win.

The over is also worth considering, but the pick here will be for the first half over. After not shooting well in back-to-back road losses, Iowa State will be raring for a strong start offensively.

So, take Arizona to cover and the over for the first half total, which currently sits at 71.5.