Cincinnati vs #4 Houston: NCAA Basketball Odds & Best Bets (3/1)

One of the best teams in the country hosts a very inferior opponent in a mismatch of a game this Saturday. The #4 Houston Cougars take on the Cincinnati Bearcats down in Texas this weekend. The Fertitta Center should be jumping as the Cougars look to close out the Big 12 regular season with another conference title. The Cougars have now won 7 straight since losing at home to Texas Tech, and I see them rolling at home once again.

As for the Bearcats, they’re just playing for pride. The team sits at 7-10 in Big 12 play and likely needs a huge push to make the NCAA tournament. This is certainly their toughest game remaining on the schedule, but do they have the fight in them to compete on the road? Or has Cincinnati already come to terms with their season being over?

Cincinnati Bearcats vs #4 Houston Cougars: Big 12 Battle

Cincinnati takes on Houston on the road

Matchup Information – Cincinnati vs Houston

• Venue & Location: Fertitta Center (Houston, TX)
• Date: Saturday, March 1st, 2025
• Tip Off: 4:30pm Eastern
• Broadcast: CBS

Betting Odds

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Spread

• Cincinnati +14.5 (-110)
• Houston -14.5 (-110)

Total

• Over 125.5 (-110)
• Under 125.5 (-110)

Cougars Defense Should Show Out

Houston’s defense is the best in the country

If you don’t know how good Houston’s defense is, let me tell you.

They are 1st in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency, 8th in eFG% defense and 6th at forcing turnovers at home. While they struggle to guard the perimeter at times, they make up for it by ranking 3rd in 2P% Defense, holding opponents to just 40% shooting from inside the arc. Offensively, the team is just as good, only struggling to produce free throw attempts of their own.

The Cougars are the 5th slowest offense in the nation, taking their time with the shot clock when they have the ball. They are 5th in the nation at grabbing offensive rebounds, which usually results in them milking more time from their opponent. This total is low for a reason, and it probably couldn’t be low enough for me. Cincinnati ranks 299th in possessions per game, as they play incredibly slow themselves. They are 4th worst at getting to the free throw line, and 5th worst in FT% when they do get there.

The point is, Cincy shouldn’t have very many points tonight, and we will be betting on exactly that.

Cincinnati Bearcats vs #4 Houston Cougars Best Bets

J’wan Roberts and the Cougars are gunning for a #1 seed

Cincinnati vs Houston Prediction: Houston Wins & Covers, Under 125.5

Best Bets: Cincinnati TT Under 55.5 (-115) BetOnline

Back Houston’s defense with me tonight. Cincinnati has been held under 56 points four times this season: @ Baylor, vs KU, @ BYU and vs West Virginia. Those are some phenomenal defenses, but none of them are in the same strasophere as Houston. Plus the Cougars play even slower.

As for their defense, Houston has held teams under 56 points in half their games this season. Yup, you read that right. Half of em. They’ve also held teams under 60 in over 64% of their games (18/28). Against a team that sincerely struggles to score the ball, especially on the road, I think Houston’s defense can bring the clamps in a low scoring game. They only give up 57 points on average, so we’re just asking for one extra miss.

Cincinnati drops from 84th to 103rd in overall offensive efficiency on the road and they rank 128th in eFG%. They play slow but make up for it on the defensive end. Cincy does not want to turn this thing into a track meet, and Vegas is already telling you that there won’t be very many points. Mix in the Bearcats’ terrible offense against the Cougars suffocating defense, and we’ve got Cincy staying under 50 points.

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