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Friday College Basketball Best Bets | December 13, 2024
Written by: Colby Marchio
Last Updated:
Read Time: 6 minutes
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Friday’s college basketball slate may be light, but there are still a couple of intriguing mid-major matchups worth diving into. From Boston vs. Merrimack, where grinding defense and poor offensive metrics set the stage for an under, to Omaha vs. Northern Iowa, a game featuring teams coming off unsustainable offensive outbursts, there is value to be found. If you want more college hoops insights, click this link.
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Boston University vs Merrimack
Can the Terriers hold down the Warriors on the road?
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On a marvelous Friday with limited college basketball action, there are still a couple of intriguing mid-major matchups worth exploring. Today, we are diving into the Boston vs. Merrimack game—a showdown that promises more grind than glamour.
Both teams are coming off 80-point performances, which feels almost miraculous considering they are among the worst offenses in the country. To add to that, both teams prefer a slower pace, each ranking in the 330s nationally in tempo. Offensively, Boston’s metrics are particularly grim: they rank 327th in adjusted offensive efficiency, 351st in turnover percentage, 296th in free-throw rate, and 322nd in two-point percentage during road games this season.
Defensively, however, the Terriers show some improvement. They rank 175th in adjusted defensive efficiency, 49th in effective field goal percentage (eFG%) defense, 88th in rebounding, and an impressive 15th in three-point defense. This bodes well against a Merrimack team that ranks 316th in three-point shooting and does not rely heavily on the deep ball.
Merrimack’s offense is just as lackluster. The Warriors sit at 309th in adjusted offensive efficiency, 307th in eFG%, 344th in rebounding, 316th in free-throw rate, and 216th in two-point percentage. It is hard to fathom how either of these teams managed to score 80+ points in their previous games.
Defensively, Merrimack mirrors Boston in many ways. They excel at defending the three (top 75 nationally), rank in the top 53 in turnover percentage, and 67th in eFG% defense, along with solid two-point defense.
This game feels like a classic letdown spot for both offenses. Both teams shot over 40 percent from beyond the arc and over 60 percent from the floor in their last outings—numbers that are unsustainable given their season-long performance trends. With slow tempos and poor offensive execution likely to dominate, I am taking the under.
Bet: Game Under (127.5) on BetOnline
Omaha vs Northern Iowa
Can the Mavericks make it back to back underdog victories?
Omaha vs Northern Iowa odds are courtesy of BetOnline, a longtime fixture among the top online sports betting sites. Check out our BetOnline sportsbook review, then bag a big bonus (100% if your first deposit is with Bitcoin, Ethereum, or another cryptocurrency) to bet on College Basketball games.
Yes, another under—cue up Men at Work—because we are living in the land down under in the Omaha vs. Northern Iowa game.
What initially drew me toward the under is how the Panthers are coming off back-to-back incredible offensive performances. They dominated UIC 83-56, shooting 61% from behind the arc (11-18) and 54% from the floor (19-35). Then, on Saturday, the Panthers steamrolled NIU by 44 points, shooting 50% from behind the arc (12-24) and an astonishing 70% from the floor (22-31). A performance like that is typically hard to duplicate in consecutive games. On top of that, the Panthers are now facing a Mavericks team that is nearly 100 spots better than the Huskies.
Omaha is also coming off a big win, defeating Sacramento State 70-60 as short underdogs. The Mavericks shot 51% from the floor and 34% from behind the arc. Omaha’s offense is nothing to brag about—it is a mid-200s offense, decent from behind the arc but not reliant on the deep ball. It is a very middle-of-the-road offense. However, their defense has been solid on the road this season. In eight road games, their defense improves from a high-200s defense to a top-100 rebounding team, a top-170 two-point defending team, and a disciplined unit that does not send opponents to the line. Not to keep dragging NIU, but the Mavericks are about 100 spots better than NIU in nearly every category. Your little brother’s JV team could drop 100 on the Huskies.
As for the Panthers’ defense, it is not as impressive as their offense, but they are still a top-125 team in adjusted defensive efficiency, 88th in effective field goal percentage (eFG%) defense, 84th in free-throw rate defense, and 79th in three-point defense. The home team usually dictates the pace, and I expect the Panthers to keep this game at a slower tempo.
On top of all this, I anticipate both offenses will come out sluggish after their recent performances. This is especially true for Northern Iowa, as they just had the game of their lives last Saturday. I lean toward Omaha, but in my opinion, the under is the better play.
Bet: Game Under (142.5) on BetOnline
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd who spends his free time on Bart Torvik, Ken Pom and Batters-Box.com. He has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog, he loves them all.
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