Longwood vs UNC Asheville Basketball Prediction & Best Bets: Lancers, Bulldogs Battle for Big South’s Big Dance Bid

Last night, the first of 32 automatic bids to the 2024 NCAA Division I Men’s Basketball Tournament went off of the board, as Morehead State defeated Little Rock for the Ohio Valley Conference tournament title. This afternoon, the Big South will take the spotlight as fifth-seeded Longwood and second-seeded UNC Asheville face off for a spot in the field of 68.

Last year, the Bulldogs, the tournament’s top seed, erased a 14-point deficit in the final seven and a half minutes to defeat seventh-seeded Campbell in the championship game. This year, they will face another foe looking to upset the odds, as the Lancers are playing for the title after taking out top seed High Point in overtime yesterday.

Which team will have the opportunity to see their name pop up on the screen on Selection Sunday next week? Read on for our Longwood vs UNC Asheville prediction and best bets.

Longwood vs UNC Asheville Game Information

• Matchup: #5 Longwood Lancers (20-13 SU, 15-15 ATS, 16-14 O/U) #2 UNC Asheville Bulldogs (22-11 SU, 15-15 ATS, 16-13-1 O/U)
• Date: Sunday, March 10, 2024
• Time: 12:00 pm ET
• Broadcast: ESPN2

Two years ago, Longwood reached the NCAA Tournament for the first time since moving to Division I in 2004. After having their hopes of a repeat ended by Campbell last year, the Lancers have a chance for a second tournament trip in three seasons.

To make that happen, they will have to take down two-time Big South Player of the Year Drew Pember and UNC Asheville. The Lancers and Bulldogs split their two regular season meetings, with UNC Asheville winning by four at home on January 13 and Longwood winning by five at home on February 21.

Is another close game in store? History indicates the latter is more likely.

Longwood vs UNC Asheville Odds

Odds are via BetOnline, a longtime fixture in the sports betting industry. Check out our BetOnline sportsbook review, then grab yourself a nice sign-up bonus to bet on today’s NCAA basketball action.

Spread

• Longwood +3.5 (-107)
• UNC Asheville -3.5 (-113)

Over/Under

• Over 139.5 (-110)
• Under 139.5 (-110)

Moneyline

• Longwood +145
• UNC Asheville -165

Looking for more men’s college hoops picks for tonight’s schedule? Our NCAA basketball picks page features moneyline, spread, and total (over/under) picks for all of today’s top games.

Longwood vs UNC Asheville Prediction and Best Bets

Longwood vs UNC Asheville Betting Analysis and Prediction

The Big South men’s basketball tournament was first held in 1986, and 1991 was the first year the conference received an automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament (which it has maintained since, except for 1995).

In that time, only nine tournament championship games have been decided by five or fewer points:

• 1987: Charleston Southern 64-63 Campbell
• 1990: Coastal Carolina 76-73 UNC Asheville
• 1995: Charleston Southern 68-67 UNC Greensboro
• 1998: Radford 63-61 UNC Asheville
• 2001: Winthrop 67-65 Radford
• 2006: Winthrop 51-50 Coastal Carolina
• 2007: Winthrop 84-81 VMI
• 2018: Radford 55-52 Liberty
• 2023: UNC Asheville 77-73 Campbell

If it does end up being a tight game, UNC Asheville has been better in those instances. This season, the Bulldogs are 7-2 in games decided by five or fewer points, while Longwood is 5-5 in such games.

Also, from a betting perspective, the Bulldogs have been money when favored by five or fewer points this season. In that spot, they are 9-1 SU and 7-3 ATS. The lone loss to date came on November 24, when they lost 86-75 to Lipscomb as a 4.5-point favorite.

In Big South play, Asheville is 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS when favored by five or fewer points. The lone missed cover came at Presbyterian on January 6, when they were favored by 4.5 but only won 84-80.

Longwood, on the other hand, has not been successful in this spot. They are 2-7 SU and 4-5 ATS as an underdog this season, including 1-4 SU and ATS when the spread has been five or fewer points.

Who were the two wins against? High Point at home as a two-point underdog in their regular season finale eight days ago, then again against the Panthers as a seven-point underdog yesterday.

Longwood vs UNC Asheville Best Bets

UNC Asheville -3.5 (-105 at Bovada) & UNC Asheville team total over 71.5 points (-115 at Bovada)

The Bulldogs might have to scratch and claw for the win, but they have thrived in close games this season and will do so again in the most important game of the season.

Championship games, especially in smaller conferences, can be ugly, lower-scoring contests. But I’m riding with an over here.

UNC Asheville has scored 72+ points 25 times in 33 games this season, including 13 times in 18 games against Big South foes this season (and scored 71 in three of the five games they didn’t). Also, the Big South Tournament championship game winner has scored 72 or more points five straight times and 11 times in 12 years.

Bonus Picks: Drew Pember over 22.5 points (-112 at BetOnline) & 31.5 points + rebounds (-130 at Bovada)

Pember is the seventh player to be named Big South Player of the Year multiple times, and he has shown why in his last few games.

To round out the regular season, he had 25 points (8 of 14, 4 of 6 3PT, 5 of 5 FT), six rebounds, and three assists in a win at Radford. Then, after posting 24 points (9 of 18 FG, 5 of 10 3PT, 1 of 2 FT), 14 rebounds, and three assists in a quarterfinal win over Charleston Southern on Friday, Pember lifted UNC Asheville to an 83-72 overtime win over Gardner-Webb yesterday with 30 points (8 of 19 FG, 5 of 12 3PT, 9 of 11 FT), 13 rebounds, and 10 assists.

He didn’t shoot well in both regular season games against Longwood, but I expect a big name for Pember today. Last year, he had 29 points (9 of 19 FG, 1 of 6 3PT, 10 of 12 FT), eight rebounds, and three blocks in UNC Asheville’s championship game win over Campbell.

Other NCAA Basketball Betting Information

Where Can You Bet on NCAA Basketball?

Throughout the college basketball season, you can find NCAA basketball odds at the top online sports betting sites. That includes prominent names like BetDSI, BetOnline, BetUS, and Bovada.

Along with game odds, many sportsbooks offer men’s and women’s March Madness futures odds, Final Four odds, Wooden Award odds, and more.

If you are unfamiliar with any of these sites, check out our sportsbook reviews to learn more about them. Our reviews analyze available betting options, deposit and payout options, mobile and live betting, and the sportsbook sign-up bonuses and other promos offered.

• BetDSI Sportsbook Review
• BetOnline Sportsbook Review
• BetUS Sportsbook Review
• Bovada Sportsbook Review
• MyBookie Sportsbook Review

Interested in Learning More About Betting on NCAA Basketball?

If you are interested in learning more about betting on NCAA basketball, check out our college basketball betting guide. It covers the basics of wagering on the action from the Mountain West to the MAAC and beyond.

• College Basketball Betting Guide: How to Bet on NCAA Basketball in 2024

Also, check out our March Madness guide, and learn valuable March Madness betting tips, where you can find the best March Madness bracket challenges, who the Final Four favorites are, and much more.

• March Madness Guide

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Which one of these teams will be in the field for the $200,000 Bracket Madness contest at BetOnline? Selection Sunday and the start of the contest aren’t until Sunday, March 17, but the contest is now open for entry fees. In the meantime, you can take advantage of their 100% cryptocurrency welcome bonus and build your bankroll for March Madness.