2025 Men’s March Madness Bubble Watch (March 13): A Tense Thursday Awaits
Written by: Eddie Griffin
Last Updated: Thu Mar 13, 2025, 08:09 AM
Read Time: 8 minutes
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Selection Sunday for the 2025 NCAA Division I Men’s Basketball Tournament is just three days away, and it is make-or-break season for teams on either side of the March Madness bubble.
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Yesterday, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Texas, and Villanova picked up wins that they all needed to remain in the running. On the other end of the spectrum, Ohio State and West Virginia suffered potentially catastrophic losses.
Today, nine games featuring bubble boys take center stage on a busy day in conference tournament action around the country.
Out of these nine games, the two that carry the most mutual significance are North Carolina-Wake Forest and Boise State-San Diego State.
Why? This is how the bubble breaks down in Joe Lunardi’s latest bracketology update post-Wednesday’s conference tournament action.
Current Men’s March Madness Bubble (at ESPN)
- Last Four Byes: Vanderbilt (20-12, 8-10 SEC, lost to Texas 79-72 Wednesday), West Virginia (19-13, 10-10 Big 12, lost to Colorado 67-60 Wednesday), Utah State (25-16, 15-5 Mountain West), Oklahoma (20-12, 6-12 SEC, defeated Georgia 81-75 Wednesday)
- Last Four In: San Diego State (21-8, 14-6 Mountain West), Indiana (19-12, 10-10 Big Ten), Xavier (21-10, 13-7 Big East), North Carolina (21-12, 13-7 ACC, defeated Notre Dame 76-56 Wednesday)
- First Four Out: Texas (18-14, 6-12 SEC, defeated Vanderbilt 79-72 Wednesday), Ohio State (17-15, 9-11 Big Ten, lost to Iowa 77-70 Wednesday), Boise State (22-9, 14-6 Mountain West), Colorado State (22-9, 16-4 Mountain West)
- Next Four Out: Dayton (22-9, 12-6 Atlantic 10), Wake Forest (21-10, 13-7 ACC), UC Irvine (27-5, 17-3 Big West), Villanova (19-13, 11-9 Big East, defeated Seton Hall 67-55 Wednesday)
Despite their losses, Vanderbilt and West Virginia remain on the right side of the bubble, but it is safe to assume that the Buckeyes, who lost five of their last seven games, are done for following their elimination from the Big Ten tournament. They finished poorly, and too many teams behind and in front of them are still alive.
Today’s Mountain West tournament action will have a significant say in how well the conference is represented in the Big Dance. Utah State and San Diego State are on the right side of the bubble for now and wins today should all but lock them into the tournament. Meanwhile, Boise State and Colorado State both need to win to remain in the mix.
Will the conference follow last season’s six bids with at least three this season? Today’s results may tell the tale.
Today’s Big March Madness Bubble Games (Thursday, March 13)
Odds are courtesy of BetOnline. Click on each matchup to be taken to the matchup page for that matchup, which features college basketball computer picks from top industry sources and odds from top online sportsbooks.
ACC
North Carolina vs Wake Forest, 2:30 pm ET, ESPN
- Spread: North Carolina -5
- Total: O/U 149
Wake Forest eked out a 67-66 home win over North Carolina in their lone regular season meeting on January 21. At that point, the Demon Deacons were 15-4 overall and 7-1 in the ACC, and they were in a strong position to return to the March Madness bracket for the first time since 2017.
But after going 6-6 in their last dozen games with home losses to Florida State and Virginia and a road loss to a bad NC State team, the Demon Deacons likely need to reach the ACC tournament championship game to get in.
North Carolina may well be on the right side of the bubble after brushing past Notre Dame, but they need to win today for that to remain the case. It doesn’t hurt that things are currently trending up for the Tar Heels, who are 7-1 in their last eight games.
Big East
Marquette vs Xavier, 2:30 pm ET, Peacock
- Spread: Marquette -2
- Total: O/U 144
Timing is everything, and timing might be on Xavier’s side here.
The Musketeers were close to dead and buried when they were 14-10 overall and 6-7 in Big East play after a 12-point loss at Villanova on February 9. Since then, they have won seven straight games, and while only one came against a tournament team (Creighton at home), they are riding high at the right time. A win today will—or should—move them away from the March Madness bubble and into a position of safety.
Few positives can be stated about Marquette’s current form, however. They are safely in but have lost six of ten and have tumbled down seed line after seed line. As it stands, they are staring at an #8 seed, according to Lunardi.
Both regular season matchups were close, with the Golden Eagles winning by two in Cincinnati on December 21 and the Musketeers flipping the script with a two-point win in Milwaukee on January 18.
Villanova vs UConn, 9:30 pm ET, FS1
- Spread: UConn -5.5
- Total: O/U 135
A poor non-conference resume means that the Wildcats have some work to do yet to return to the NCAA Tournament after missing out in Kyle Neptune’s first two seasons as head coach.
A win over Seton Hall yesterday was step one, a win over UConn today would be a second step, and a win over Creighton in the semifinals would likely end their brief drought.
They will certainly have the edge in motivation in this matchup, but the Huskies have motivation and momentum on their side as well. UConn finished the regular season with four straight wins, and a run in the Big East tournament could bump them up a seed line from their current projection of a #8 seed and provide a valuable boost ahead of their quest for a three-peat.
Big Ten
Indiana vs Oregon, 12:00 pm ET, Big Ten Network
- Spread: Oregon -2
- Total: O/U 143
If Indiana can advance to the quarterfinals of the Big Ten tournament with a win over a team that is currently projected as a #5 seed, it will take a lot of movement to bump them out of the field of 68.
Mountain West
Boise State vs San Diego State, 5:30 pm ET, CBS Sports Network
- Spread: Boise State -1.5
- Total: O/U 135
As stated above, the loser of this game will face some long odds to receive a ticket to the dance.
San Diego State swept the regular season series, winning by eight on the road and by 17 at home.
Nevada vs Colorado State, 9:00 pm ET, CBS Sports Network
- Spread: Colorado State -5.5
- Total: O/U 139.5
The Rams may need to reach the tournament championship game to land on the right side of the March Madness bubble, but they are playing their best ball of the season when it matters. Over the course of their current seven-game win streak, they are averaging 80.6 points per game and have won four games by 20+ points.
UNLV vs Utah State, 11:30 pm ET, CBS Sports Network
- Spread: Utah State -6.5
- Total: O/U 142
It is possible that Utah State could end up being safe even with a loss to UNLV, but they would need a lot of chips to fall favorably, including in the Mountain West tournament.
The Aggies may be clear favorites in this matchup, but don’t dismiss the Runnin’ Rebels’ chances at all. They are 7-2 in their last nine games and have played Utah State well this season, winning at home and losing by only five in Logan.
SEC
Texas vs Texas A&M, 3:30 pm ET, SEC Network
- Spread: Texas A&M -5.5
- Total: O/U 139
Texas is still alive and kicking in part because of a big comeback they made to defeat Texas A&M at home earlier this season.
That helped keep the door open for the Longhorns even after a 2-7 finish to the regular season, and they boosted their hopes significantly with yesterday’s win over Vanderbilt.
Because of how many other active teams there are on the bubble, a win over the Aggies might not lock them in, but a win and a close loss against Tennessee tomorrow will give them a much better case than they had before they won at Mississippi State last week.
Oklahoma vs Kentucky, 9:30 pm ET, SEC Network
- Spread: Kentucky -6.5
- Total: Over 163.5
As is the case with Xavier, timing may be everything for Oklahoma, who picked up an important and impressive win in SEC tournament action yesterday.
Over their last six games, the Sooners have three wins over NCAA Tournament locks (Mississippi State, Missouri, and Georgia), a road win over a fellow bubble team (Texas), and close losses to two other tournament locks (a one-point loss to Kentucky and a three-point loss at Ole Miss).
OU may well be in even with a loss, provided it isn’t a blowout loss, but a win will leave no doubt about their position on the March Madness bubble. Or away from it, to be precise.
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