NCAA Basketball Predictions, Odds & Best Bets (3/6)

Thursday is here, which means a couple of things: The weekend is extremely close and we have A TON of small college basketball on the betting board tonight. We know Thursday’s aren’t the sexiest slate compared to other days of the week, however it’s March. Tis the season, and we need to embrace it before its all over. Let’s get into our College Hoops best bets for today!

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NCAA Basketball Best Bets – March 6th, 2025

Merrimack vs Marist Predictions

Best Bets: Merrimack ML (-103) BetOnline

Here we go again backing the Budd Clark Warriors. Merrimack finds themselves half a game behind Marist for 2nd place in the MAAC. They are also in a revenge spot on the road. The Red Foxes beat the Warriors on their home court in a barn burner, winning 61-60 on February 16th. Since then, Merrimack has dropped games to Sacred Heart and Rider, but they did beat Iona on the road. They are in their final regular season game, while Marist turns around to play Mount Saint Mary’s on Saturday.

Both these teams are incredibly slow, so I don’t expect very many points to begin with. These teams are both defensive focused and much better on that side of the court. Marist has dropped two straight and have had three of their worst offensive outings in their last three games. I don’t trust them to turn things around, even on Senior Night.

Like I said, both defenses are great. Marist is 21st in eFG% Defense, but drops to 58th at home. They stay in the Top 20 in offensive rebounds allowed, but they are 324th overall offensively and Bottom 12 at getting to the free throw line. Marist can’t shoot from downtown, and they don’t very often anyways, relying on their defense for wins. That’s going to be tough against Budd Clark.

Clark put up 19 points, 6 assists and 4 boards in their first meeting, adding 3 steals. He is going to be tough to contain, and when Merrimack needs a bucket, he can get one at will. I trust the Warriors offense a little bit more in this revenge spot, and think they end the season with a bang.

Old Dominion vs Texas State Predictions

Best Bets: Texas State -4 (-110) BetOnline

The Sun Belt Conference Tournament is underway, and we are backing the Bobcats in the 3rd round of this “Survive and Advance” gauntlet style of a bracket. Texas State is simply the better team here.

For starters, they are ranked nearly 100 spots higher than Old Dominion according to Bart Torvik. The Bobcats are 2nd in the conference offensively, 4th in eFG% and FT Rate, and 3rd at crashing the offensive glass. They certainly make teams’ lives nightmarish on the defensive end, so ODU will have their work cutout for them after winning last night. Old Dominion also got the best of Texas State during the regular season, winning 75-64 at home in their only meeting. Did someone say revenge spot?

Old Dominion is Bottom 5 in the nation in eFG%, ranking dead last in the conference. Defensively, they are 3rd worst in the Sun Belt in eFG% and 2P% defense, plus Texas State is going to speed things up. This should give them plenty of chances to cover this number, even being on a neutral site.

ODU took down a very easy Ragin’ Cajun’s team last night, but now they’ll face a bit of a wake up call. Texas State was -2.5 at Old Dominion earlier this year, and after losing by 11, are now favored by 3.5 on a neutral court. It’s telling to me that the Bobcats are simply the better team and will run away with this one.

CS Northridge vs UC Riverside Predictions

Best Bets: CS Northridge ML (-125) BetOnline

Back the boys of Northridge with me on the road again. The Matadors are in a revenge spot in their final Big West road game of the regular season. They lost to the Highlanders by four in their very first conference game, and now they get a shot at revenge right before the tournament. CS Northridge is one game ahead of Riverside in the Big West standings as well, so they’d like things to stay that way and even out the tiebreaker if they could.

I think they are capable. The Matadors play extremely fast and are pretty solid all around. Not only are they Top 135 overall on both sides of the ball, but they are Top 20 in offensive rebounds gained and allowed, Top 25 in forcing turnovers, and Top 36 at getting to the free throw line. The one downside is they send their opponents there plenty as well.

However, the Highlanders are 320th in FT Rate, so I don’t expect them to get there much anyways. Offensively, UC Riverside is pretty sound, but I trust the Northridge defense to disrupt their guards, force turnovers, and speed things up going the other way. The Matadors can afford to turn this into a shootout, but the home team can’t. Ultimately I see Northridge being able to acquire sweet revenge on the road with their blistering speed and suffocating defense.

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