NCAA Basketball Predictions, Odds & Best Bets (3/7)

The last Friday of the College Hoops regular season is here, meaning Saturday is stacked with tons of basketball. However, we’ve got plenty of small college conference tournaments as well as other games happening tonight, so before we look ahead, let’s see if we can find any best bets for Friday’s NCAA Basketball slate.

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NCAA Basketball Best Bets – March 7th, 2025

Colorado State vs Boise Predictions

Best Bets: CSU/Boise Under 140.5 (-110) BetOnline

Back the under in this Mountain West matchup with me tonight. These teams already went over a 140 total in Fort Collins, scoring 147 total points as the Rams upset the Broncos at home, 75-72. Now Boise is back at home in a revenge spot to close out their regular season.

This game could be crucial for Mountain West conference tournament seeding, as the Rams are a game ahead of both Boise and Utah State, and one game behind New Mexico for the top spot. These teams are also both hotter than the sun as CSU has won six straight, and Boise five of their own. Something has to give tonight, and I think Boise’s defense will show out. Let’s look at the stats.

Boise ranks north of 250 in possessions per game, so they’re fairly slow. They are a Top 50 offense and defense, but that jumps to Top 20 on their home court. The Broncos ranks 11th overall defensively and 24th in eFG% defense at home, while also ranking Top 10 in offensive rebounds allowed. I would be worried about the Broncos offense since they are incredibly efficient, but they rake lots of threes (Top 80 3P Rate) but don’t make very many (211th 3P%), and again, they play slow.

Colorado State speeds things up a bit, but Boise will control the pace of this game. The Rams do not get to the free throw line or crash the glass, but they do limit their opponent’s offensive rebounds, as they are also Top 10 in OR allowed. Offensively, the Rams fall off on the road. Not only are they north of 250 in pace, but their Top 55 offense drops to 136th away from home. However, their defense is still Top 60, as the Rams rely on that side of the ball to provide away wins.

CSU is 2-4 against Top 100 teams on the road this year, while Boise is 12-1 on their home court. While I do lean slightly with the Broncos in this obvious revenge spot at home, I certainly think they get this win on the defensive end, holding this game under 140.

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