NCAA Basketball: Round of 32, Odds & Best Bets (3/22)

I’m not going to waste any time, we’re getting right down to business. We have the first eight matchups of the Round of 32 beginning on Saturday, so let’s take a look at our best bets for each of those games.

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NCAA Basketball Best Bets – March 22nd, 2025

#12 McNeese vs #4 Purdue: Round of 32 Predictions

Best Bets: McNeese/Purdue Under 143 (-105) BetOnline

McNeese successfully knocked off Clemson, and now they face the Boilermakers. Their only hope is a low scoring game, and luckily for the Cowboys, that’s how both teams play. McNeese is 290th in possessions per game while Purdue is 300th, dropping to 343rd in their last 10 games. Neither team shoots the ball from deep, neither get to the free throw line that often, and the Cowboys defense is the real deal.

McNeese ranks 7th overall in adjusted defensive efficiency, Top 20 in eFG% D and FT Rate defense, and are Top 33 at forcing turnovers, which will lead to extra, long possessions for the Cowboys. Purdue shoots over 64% of their shots from inside the perimeter, and McNeese has a Top 10 defense in terms of 2P%. Give me this game to stay WELL under 143.

#10 Arkansas vs #2 St. John’s: Round of 32 Predictions

Best Bets: Ark/St. John’s Over 144.5 (-110) BetOnline

Read my full analysis on why I’m backing points as Coach Cal and Rick Pitino go head to head.

Check out our #10 Arkansas vs #2 St. John’s Preview!

#5 Michigan vs #4 Texas A&M: Round of 32 Predictions

Best Bets: Michigan +3 (-110) BetOnline

The wrong team is favored here. Texas A&M has a bunch of dudes who are 6’4″ to 6’9″, plus Wade Taylor who is barely 6 foot. Michigan has two 7 footers who are on the court over 70% of the time. They are going to be a problem as the Aggies are way undersized in this matchup. The boys from Big Blue are going to be too big for Texas A&M.

Although the Wolverines tried to give it away to UC San Diego, Dusty May has been here before, and I trust him to get his guys back on track. We have two very good defenses, but I trust the Wolverines offense a lot more. Give me Michigan to cover with ease and win in dominant fashion as an underdog.

#15 Drake vs #3 Texas Tech: Round of 32 Predictions

Best Bets: Drake +7 (-110) BetOnline

The Drake Bulldogs pulled off a huge upset, and I think they can do so again. Regardless, seven points is way too many in what should be a VERY low scoring game.

Drake is playing phenomenal basketball on both sides of the court. They are very efficient offensively and are the slowest offense in the nation. Texas Tech is also incredibly slow, so points will be at a premium in this ball game, making an underdog cover more likely. The Red Raiders are injured and not as tough defensively as they have been in past years. They also rely heavily on threes, which might be an issue as they face a Top 60 team in terms of 3P% defense.

The Bulldogs already made light work of a team that is very offensive minded and lacks defensive effort. You need to stop Drake in order to beat them, and they are very tough to slow down, even though they play at a turtle’s pace. I see another outright upset in Drake’s future.

#9 Creighton vs #1 Auburn: Round of 32 Predictions

Best Bets: Miles Kelly Over 2.5 Threes (+105) BetOnline

We’re going right back to Kelly who cashed this line in four minutes in his first game. The guy shoots 39.9% on the season, jumping to 43% away from home. Over 67% of his shots come from deep, but in his last 10, he’s letting over 72% of his shots fly from downtown. Kelly is coming off shooting 7/15 in the Round of 64, and I think we see some points against Creighton with a total of 150.5.

The Blue Jays are north of 300th nationally in 3P% defense, allowing their foes to shoot over 37.7% as a team. Kelly has only cleared this line in 14/34 games this season, but he is a key part of this offense and will need to step up to lift this team to the National Championship.

#6 BYU vs #3 Wisconsin: Round of 32 Predictions

Best Bets: Two Man Parlay (+130) BetOnline

Listen up, we’ve got a player prop parlay.

• Richie Saunders (BYU) 2+ Threes (-210)
• John Blackwell (Wisconsin) 2+ Threes (-155)
• Two Man Parlay (+130)

Both teams are fast, Top 20 in 3P Rate, and neither have exceptional perimeter defenses either. The Badgers are north of 150 in 3P Rate and 3P% defense, while BYU is 249th in 3P% Defense and Bottom 30 in 3P Rate defense. Saunders shoots over 42% from downtown, and he’s coming off a 1/6 shooting night. He leads the Cougars with 29 minutes per game and has cleared 2+ threes in over 57% of his games.

Blackwell isn’t known for his three point shooting, but he knocks them down at a 32% clip and he leads the team in both minutes and field goal attempts. Now, recently, Blackwell has been airing it out. He averages 31 minutes per game, but has been seeing closer to 38.3 over his last 11 contests. He went 0/3 from deep last game, but his 4.8 3PA average is up to 6.3 over his last 10 games.

I see both of these shooters having a bounce back night in a fast paced, high scoring game.

#8 Gonzaga vs #1 Houston: Round of 32 Predictions

Best Bets: Gonzaga/Houston Under 139.5 (-110) BetOnline

Even though Gonzaga is speedy, Houston is not. I expect the Cougars to control the pace of the game, as the Zags have not been able to speed up their ultra-slow opponents.

The Zags scored 58 (twice) and 67 against Saint Mary’s (Top 10 defense), and only 62 against UCLA (Top 16). Both of those teams are just as slow as the Cougars, and Houston’s defense is better. They lead the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency and are 2nd in eFG% defense. The Zags hate shooting the three, and rely heavily on points from inside the arc.

Gonzaga shoots over 67% of their shots from two point range, and they face the 5th best defense in terms of 2P% Defense. Offensively, both of these teams are north of 250 in FT Rate, so don’t expect cheap points from the line. Houston is fine scoring just 60 points as long as they win, and this could be one of those nights.

#7 UCLA vs #2 Tennessee: Round of 32 Predictions

Best Bets: Chaz Lanier Over 2.5 Threes (-180) BetOnline

Right hand up, I snagged this at (-130) before typing this write-up when the entire market was -175. While I do think Lanier gets his threes, and probably even hits four, I would suggest pairing this with the Vols ML for (+100) on BetOnline. But let me sell you on Chaz.

This is going to be a slow game with very valuable possessions, but UCLA is bottom 25 in 3P Rate, meaning they give up tons of threes, and their 3P% defense drops 50 spots nationally over their last 10 games. We will get back to that point in a moment.

Lanier averages 31 minutes a game, so he’s on the court plenty. He’s the Vols primarily three point shooter, and even though he will have plenty of attention on him, he’ll find a way to get open. Chaz shoots over 40% from beyond the arc, with over 56% of his shot attempts coming from downtown. He just played in this gym on Thursday, shooting 6/13 from deep. Lanier is in familiar terrirtory, and 3 threes is nothing for this guy.

He’s cleared this line in 22/33 (63%) games this year, and does so in 84% of games (16/19) where he takes at least 8 three point attempts. Lanier averages 8.2 3PA per game, so assuming he puts up his normal amount, we have an 84% chance of cashing our bet. I’ll take those odds at -130 (sorry, it’s gone). But I would certainly take those odds paired with Tennessee ML for even money.

I see Lanier having at least double digit 3PA in this game as they face a horrendous perimeter defense in the Bruins. If Lanier hits his threes, the Vols win this game and Rick Barnes moves on to the Sweet 16.

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