NCAA Basketball Round of 32 Odds & Best Bets (3/23)

The first weekend of March Madness wraps up today, and later this evening we will have condensed the field from 68 teams, all the way down to our Sweet 16. Let’s get into our best bets for Sunday in these Round of 32 contests.

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NCAA Basketball Best Bets – March 23rd, 2025

#8 UConn vs #1 Florida: Round of 32 Predictions

Best Bets: Florida TT Over 80 (-120) BetOnline

Back the Gators to score plenty on this iffy Huskies defense later today.

Check out our #8 UConn vs #1 Florida Preview!

#9 Baylor vs #1 Duke: Round of 32 Predictions

Best Bets: Tyrese Proctor Over 2.5 Threes (+108) BetOnline

We’re getting plus money for this kid to do what he’s done all season, knock down threes. He leads the team in 3PA, averaging 5.9 per contest, shooting nearly 40% from beyond the arc. On Friday in this gym, he went 6/8 from downtown in just 24 minutes of play. He was 6/14 from deep in the ACC Championship as well, so he’s letting it fly and seeing the rim well. Aside from the game against Mount Saint Mary’s, Proctor has seen 30+ minutes in four straight games, as he’s stepped up when needed without Cooper Flagg.

Now, Baylor doesn’t have the best perimeter defense, as they rank 286th in 3P Rate defense and 271st in 3P%D, letting their foes shoot over 35% from downtown. Proctor has only cleared this number in 14/34 games this year, but he’s done so in 12/16 where he had at least 6 three point attempts, which is an average night for him.

For plus money, I’m willing to bet on Proctor having at least 6-8 attempts tonight against Baylor, and I’m sure he can knock down three of them for us.

#6 Illinois vs #3 Kentucky: Round of 32 Predictions

Best Bets: Illinois ML (-135) BetOnline

I’ll admit, we have horrendous CLV on this play. I should’ve taken it when the line dropped and Illinois was a one point underdog, nevertheless, I don’t mind backing them as a short favorite here. Right now, they are the better team, and much better on one side of the ball.

This game will be a track meet. I lean over but 169.5?? Pass. We are going to see plenty of back and forth from two very electric offenses who both rank Top 20 in possessions per game. The difference to me lies in Illinois’ defense. They are MUCH better on that side of the ball than the Wildcats.

Illinois is 43rd overall defensively, 29th in eFG% and Top 35 in both offensive rebounds allowed and FT Rate defense. They struggle to force turnovers, but so do the Wildcats. Illinois ranks 3rd in 3P Rate defense while holding opponents to just 33% from deep as well. Kentucky can’t compete with those numbers.

They rank 20th overall defensively, but 265th in eFG% over the past 10 games. They rank 125th in FT Rate defense, and even though they box out their opponent well, they do not crash the offensive glass like the Illini do. Ultimately, Illinois is less injured, better defensively, longer and tougher than the Wildcats, and I think that shows tonight in this game.

#7 Saint Mary’s vs #2 Alabama: Round of 32 Predictions

Best Bets: SMC/Alabama Under 149.5 (-110) BetOnline

The only chance the Gaels have in this game is keeping it low scoring. Against the fastest offense, it might be tough, but I believe Saint Mary’s has it in them to dominate the pace of this game, slow things down, and take Alabama out of their comfort zone. Let’s look at the teams that have beaten Alabama this year. Purdue, Oregon, Ole Miss, Auburn, Missouri, Tennessee, and Florida. To narrow it down even more, we’re going to avoid the road losses.

The Tide lost to the Oregon Ducks, Ole Miss Rebels, Auburn Tigers and Florida Gators. All of those teams have a Top 27 defense in the country. Florida still allowed Bama to score 94, but won because of how electric their own offense is.

Saint Mary’s offense is efficient, but incredibly slow. They’ll take down Alabama on the defensive end, as they rank 9th overall, 15th in eFG%, as well as 9th in offensive rebounds allowed and 18th in FT Rate. The Gaels are also Top 12 in 3P Rate defense and Top 50 in 3P% Defense. This is a nightmare matchup for Alabama as Saint Mary’s is able to use their 5th slowest tempo to their advantage.

Give me Bama to win, the Gaels to cover, and this game to soar under 149.5

#12 Colorado State vs #5 Maryland: Round of 32 Predictions

Best Bets: Derik Queen Over 16.5 Points BetOnline

The freshman phenom leads the Terps with 16.2 points per game, and he averages over 30 minutes per contest as well. The 6’11” 245 pound future first round pick is going to be too big for the Rams of Colorado State.

Queen is constantly on the court, and he’s cleared 17+ points in four of his last six contests. When he takes double digit field goal attempts, he’s cleared this number in 16/19 games, plus the Rams are incredibly undersized. Colorado State will be relying on 6′ 8″ forward Jaylen Crocker-Johnson to slow down Queen on the offensive end, and I’m not quite sure the sophomore has it in him.

I could see this getting ugly fast, as the Terps play their way into the next round.

#6 Ole Miss vs #3 Iowa State: Round of 32 Predictions

Best Bets: Tamin Lipsey Over 3.5 Assists (-115) BetOnline

This line seems too low, and I’ll take the cheese if it’s a trap. Lipsey plays 30.8 minutes per game, but he still had 4 assists in just 24 minutes against the Bisons in the first round. This is a number Lipsey has cleared only 11 times this season, but has done so in 5 of his last 6 contests. With Gilbert out of the lineup, more minutes and more potential assists are there for the taking.

I think we see some back and forth in this matchup and both teams don’t mind running up and down the floor. Plus, the Cyclones have been playing at a Top 70 assist rate over their last 10 contests. Ole Miss’s defense is alright, but defensively they are bottom 40 in assists allowed, which should certainly open up the door for Lipsey to find his teammates.

#10 New Mexico vs #2 Michigan State: Round of 32 Predictions

Best Bets: Jermey Fears Jr. Over 5.5 Assists (-135) BetOnline

We cashed on Fears’ points in the Round of 64, and now we’re betting on his assists in this matchup. New Mexico is one of the fastest teams in the nation, so they will push the pace and give the Spartans extra possessions. The Lobos are a one man show offensively, not the greatest defensively, and rank Bottom 35 in assist rate on defense. This means Fears and the Spartans should excel at finding open teammates, as they are already 16th in the country in assists on offense.

Now, what about Fears specifically?

The freshman has been playing more minutes than his season average over the past few, and he isn’t afraid to have the ball in his hands. Fears had cleared 6+ assists in two straight and 3 of his L4, as well as in 19/33 (57.5%) games this season. He only averages 23 minutes on the season, but has seen 26+ in his last three, and he will be on the court plenty trying to lock up Donovan Dent. Give me Fears to have a big game on both sides of the court, but especially in finding his teammates for open looks.

#5 Oregon vs #4 Arizona: Round of 32 Predictions

Best Bets: Keeshawn Barthelemy Over 1.5 Threes (-140) BetOnline

We are backing a Ducks’ sharp shooter to go off tonight. All we need is two threes from a guy that shoots over 41% from deep and plays over 27 minutes per game. Mr. Keeshawn Barthelemy is our guy tonight.

He’s cleared 2+ threes in 21/34 (61.7%) games this year, including 3 of his L4 and 8 of his L10. The guy is red hot right now, his teammates know it, and they are feeding him the ball. Barthelemy shoots more threes and at a higher percentage away from home this year, and the Wildcats defense is not equipped to stop him.

For starters, Arizona will have to focus on 7 footer Nate Bittle and guard Jackson Shelstad as the two primary scorers for the Ducks. This leaves less attention on Barthelemy until it is too late. The Wildcats rank 284th in 3P Rate, giving up shots from downtown over 41% of the time, and recently they rank 317th in 3P% Defense, allowing opponents to shoot over 38% from beyond the arc.

This leaves our guy in a tremendous matchup, facing a bad perimeter defense, shooting better and more often recently, as well as having other scoring options around him to take up some attention. Give me Barthelemy to have himself a night.

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